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Tat, Based on your opinion and wording, "off your backs", I assume you are not a shareholder. Do you have a short position? No need to respond if you don't want to.
Sleven,
On the last call, Holt let slip in the Q&A they tend to lose "double digit" margin every year when they renegotiate their exclusivity contract due to competing with generic pricing. That was the "heads up". This Q1 performance should not be a surprise to anyone. Also why Denner has been yapping about Q2 buyback since the 1st of the year. He knew how those negotiations end of last year went and knew when the retail mob finally see the actual impact. Perfectly timed bait to keep everyone hooked. Notice that hit to their bottom line certainly didn't stop them from paying themselves the same or more off your backs.
Kiwi, Fair enough. You know I'm not an Alex Denner fan. That aside, they are following the plan laid out by prior management. I think the plan is sound. It's not going to be quick. I'm not sure if the UK courts will approve the share repurchase. EU market will expand in time. The three remaining big five markets will reimburse eventually. Guidance dictates that. This earnings call should not have surprised anyone. The next catalyst should be the ruling from the court of appeals.
Sleven,
N7. Well I try not to trade on emotion....( disgusted with their lack of vision in promoting Vazkepa in the EU ) ...and we have an obvious catalyst coming up ...the expected UK approval of the stock buyback .
Kiwi
Kiwi, What is the point of waiting? Sell now and take the small loss.you don't own many shares. Move on to greener pastures.
Sleven,
IMO share buy back will be spread over 2024, $5M here, there, but also tied to how revenues hold up. $10M maybe to start IMO
No advertising in Europe you have to remember. But yeah, the medical community just not falling all over themselves for V.
Here's another recent finding from ACC24: "Lp(a) was prognostic for MACE in the REDUCE-IT trial and importantly, IPE consistently reduced MACE across a range of Lp(a) levels, including those with clinically relevant elevations.”https://t.co/cGt811s5tH
— Mike Everts (@GeoWizz_) May 1, 2024
Launch dates ...reimbursement dates are usually earlier ...its in their 10Q
Not exactly " flying off the shelves " as JL once proposed ....and this in the EU where they have no generic competition.
Kiwi
Are you using the dates as of reimbursements?
Re
I don't think it's too surprising because, as I recall, the fourth quarter benefitted from the usual robust end-of-year sales along with extra money from Edding because of the China approval. During the 4th Quarter conference call, they said licensing and royalty revenue was $4.2 million, "resulting primarily from the achievement of the Edding CVRR milestones." Now, it sounds like scripts in Europe is about 5,000, a nice growth from the last quarter. So income from those other countries should start accumulating soon. And, if I remember correctly from other years, it seems that the biggest slide in U.S. revenues occurs in the First Quarter every year. I think we'll start seeing a nice improvement in the next two quarters and, by the fourth quarter, we'll start to be able to see that rest-of-world income is becoming meaningful in comparison to U.S. income. Eventually, it won't matter how much the U.S. market shrinks.
Yeah I know its usually the worst I just did not think it would drop that much. Not pre releasing at least gave a heads up it likely would not be very good.
So here we have a company with excellent data from at least one major double blinded placebo controlled trial ...the Reduce It trial ...that is unable to make any significant progress in selling their one drug ..Vascepa / Vazkepa into one of the largest markets in the world ..the EU .
Why is that ?
IMHO its because the EU Health Depts and Cardiologists are largely not convinced in the results of the R-IT trial .
What is AMRN mgt doing to address this ...absolutely nothing despite now having patent protection out to 2039
So far Denner and his team have been a huge disappointment . I owned MDCO before Denner got control of that BOD and sold that Co to NVS.
I was hoping for the same here .
Right now I'd just like to see them get the PPS above $1 on their share buyback, so I can bail break even at my recent purchase price and say good buy to this slow moving ( to continue their Nautical theme ...Marine / Anchor ) ship wreck
Kiwi
1st quarter is generally weak for everyone, specially for large chronic diseases as people make trade-offs given they have to work through their deductibles. Hoping volume picks up in Q2 and beyond (at a reasonable price)
Seemed like in the fourth quarter they only were down like 2 million in sales and had stabalized and then all of a sudden down 15 million the next quarter. Not sure how they are going to make this revenue up europe sales are not cutting it so far.
Late in the game to execute an AG?
That would have been silly to do it 2 years ago. The idea is to at least maintain market share. They have done that. But it appears that maybe they are having to now give up too much in price to maintain that market share, and now an AG could help re-capture some of that market share at a similar price that they are now discounting to.
But, I don't know the specifics. I don't know their pricing structure vs. the generics. And it's difficult because every insurer has their own deal with Amarin and the generics. I can only assume that this is why they might be more strongly considering it.
Again, they share very little details on their business, so it's always difficult to surmise what is a good decision and what is questionable (other than with hindsight).
It is actually not as bad as I thought it would be. But I guess denner will get his wish of doing the buyback at a very low price.
Isn't it a litttle late in the game for this now. Should this not have been done like at least two years ago?
Agreed. I think he is still talking in the hypothetical. I read it to mean "we are genuinely ready to pivot to an authorized generic strategy and plans should we need to. And that's really simply a matter of us doing that with the partner we have selected (at that time)."
Now, they may have a partner in mind. They may have even had discussions with them already. But I read this sentence to mean that they have not made the decision to pivot YET.
You miss the important part of that
Hard to know. Sometimes when people speak off the cuff, they mix up tenses or omit a word. In this case it is possible he omitted the word “will” in front of “have selected”.
Also a great ad campaign to tell everyone we are not a greddy big pharm
Michael
ramfan60
Was this word for word ? A slip perhaps ?
partner we have selected.
"With that said, we are genuinely ready to pivot to an authorized generic strategy and plans should we need to. And that's really simply a matter of us doing that with the partner we have selected.
Michael
Authorized generic is still prescription, not over the counter. Would not be on displayed on a shelf.
Don’t think I’ve ever seen (maybe just didn’t notice) prescription drugs displayed, be they brand or generic.
Teva just filed lawsuit against Amarin in March. Doubtful a partner would do that with a deal pending.
It'll be someone not already selling generic V. So... Viatris, Sandoz, GSK...
ramfan...from the C.C...."we are genuinely ready to pivot to an authorized generic strategy and plans should we need to. And that's really simply a matter of us doing that with the partner we have selected."...... guesses as to the partner is?"
My guess is that CVS could supply enough shelves for Amarin to adequately display Generic Vascepa...
Amarin does not need a partner to produce their product, but only to display it for public consumption...if the patient still prefers prescription Vascepa, CVS can fill that request also....(although I assume they would be the same product, possibly with a different name...such as ecosapentethyl and perhaps a different price.
I was thinking Teva
Would that be a Generic company like Teva or Apotex (with whom they had some relatively good relationship with for a time) or a BP like Pfizer?
Let's not get too far out over our skis here....... we're all hoping for rapid expansion into the EU and China but as we also know what Holt mentions over and over which is each country is unique. It's a slow slog and progress is being made. We don't have the China CV indication yet but the application has been accepted......Italy was resubmitted and Spain is in progress.... Germany re submission is still a project..... Holt also keeps reiterating that the US is very profitable....... I may buy more today as Q1 results are always less than hoped for but all is not doom and gloom.
I honestly thought the SP would be down 20% like it normally is after earnings. Earnings always seem to be awful. I am more concerned with the stuff you mentioned it just seems to be same old same old with the new leadership. Nothing seems to have changed much. I would love to know what they mean by "significant revenue" in Europe by year end cause a few million a quarter pretty much is nowhere close to offset the USA market decline.
Re your view
Here's the conference call transcript............
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amarin-plc-amrn-q1-2024-150014040.html
"With that said, we are genuinely ready to pivot to an authorized generic strategy and plans should we need to. And that's really simply a matter of us doing that with the partner we have selected."...... guesses as to the partner is?
Have to agree with your sentiments plus it isn’t reasonable for anyone not to have anticipated these results.
JR..."I would like to see Sarissa buy more shares alongside the buyback (or before it)"....I agree
If Denner's purpose for Sarrissa buying back shares is to to increase its share price, as we must assume it is....then it makes sense for him to be buying Amarin shares NOW or in the near future at these ridiculously low bargain basement prices.
Even Denner's additional purchases will give more credence to the success of Amarin for the future.
JR. re
I’m not specifically bothered by the SP action. What bothers me is another quarter of no progress, and no enthusiasm for the future. It’s just the same tired story quarter after quarter.
For all the pomp and circumstance that Sarissa presented during their proxy fight, they are not doing anything much differently than the prior management team did.
And maybe they will surprise us one day, but we have no idea when or what that will look like.
I've never been less bothered by a 10 percent drop by Amarin. For one thing, I think the last two earnings calls and statements were purposefully dull, if not discouraging, by design in the runup to the stock repurchase. And it serves all of us well if Amarin does its buyback with the share price as low as possible. That's also good for the company as it shops itself to potential buyers. Of course, my mood is aided by watching CTMX go up dramatically today.
I agree that there will be catalysts in the second half of the year, and the company stated in the fall that it expects to finally get "meaningful" sales in Europe beginning in this year's fourth quarter.
I also note that the drop in price today is happening on relatively low trading volume considering that the company just announced its earnings. So I'd say the share price drop today and the accompanying doom and glooming is much about nothing.
Amazing ! AMarin voted #1 stock for this reason ! Thats right AMARIN has been voted the #1 stock for providing buying opportunities ! Its 82 pennies. Fat lady is singing and she's making pink sheet pudding !Tell the desperate housewives once more why they need to buy this stock
I would like to see Sarissa buy more shares alongside the buyback (or before it).
Link to today's Webcast Q1:
https://www.webcaster4.com/Player/Index?webcastId=50260&g=019f57cd-8b75-49b3-868e-f3f69faf7ca6&uid=5500643&sid=
Only you would claim to be right after calling for a rally and the stock dumps 11% within hours. You sure are special.
The market is NOT taking kindly to the C.C. and that is NOT unexpected...No news on any plans for LR-Et-EPA or comments on the relationship with Mochida...No news on the potential time line for mainland China approval of Vascepa for the CVD indication....
The market is unimpressed with the Amarin $50 million buy back, which we all knew about previously anyway....Amarin price is down over 10% as of the time of this post
Come on Amarin...How about a C.C. or a PR with some REALLY good news!...instead of sad news, which we already knew about.
Well, a lot is going to happen over the next several months. We've got the stock BB, results of BRAVE coming, and more evolving in Europe and China. So there's definitely upside in the short-term. It's just a matter of how much.
Plus, I still get the sneaky sense that Denner is hiding something (positive). I just don't know what.
Starting to wonder if there is a plan or if its what you see is what you get? Cause if it is what you see is what you get I would probably sell out after the buyback. I am not willing to sit around another couple years hoping to just break even at 3 bucks/ I got other stocks with more potential that could move much much quicker. With sales heading south this will be a slow slog to say the least.
Clearly you are unaware of how this game works, hence your current position and demeaner.
The stock dipped to a penny from the yearly low. This sets the stage for short covering which will produce a strong spring.
You barked the same way the day after I made a similar post a year ago. 3 months later the stock was up +95% and your position was only down -94%.
'Springs' near lows get bought - especially in the form of covering. Bears are smarter (they actually take profits and/or pull rip chords) than hope filled bulls who only see one side of the coin. The shorts are aware of the building bullish momentum indicating strong support. They're aware of the double bottom here and have likely calculated the probability of higher prices to ensue.
Okay, back to the "ignore worthless poster file" you go.
I think that's my biggest frustration - flying blind. Never really know what's happening or what the "real" plan is.
It is all part of the denner master plan he wants the price as low as possible for the buyback and then he will unleash hell. Still would love to know his master plan I am not impressed 14 month in.
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