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Teach a man to fish, feed him for life
A Buy Setup occurs when there are 9 consecutive closes less than the close four bars earlier. A Sell Setup occurs when there are 9 consecutive closes greater than the close four bars earlier.
The Countdown phase occurs once Setup is complete. Countdown is used to measure the depletion of buyers and sellers determined by the direction of the underlying trend and anticipates the area at which the trend is vulnerable to a reversal (trend exhaustion).
Countdown is calculated by comparing the close of the current bar to the high or low two bars earlier. Once the series reaches a 13 the market is prone to a reversal.
Unlike the Setup phase, Countdown does not require that the counts be consecutive.
https://demark.com/sequential-indicator/
I'll be curious how the De Mark signal plays out,
I would like to know the weekly De Mark signal if any.
Agreed, yet I went ahead and added to AVXL for non T/A reasons.
I was trying to be on holiday but the $ANVS AD fail was announced. Which was my primary reason to own, so I sold and put the remainder into $AVXL.
$ANVS does have another shot on on goal with PD, so there may be support for them at $5 and "green trades" to them. But I also know they have a large need to raise funds with equity financing and not sure how well that's going to go unless PD hits.
I'll be curious how the De Mark signal plays out, but also know how conviction plays a part too as Kentucky123 mentioned.
And long time no see 123tom
First order of business IMO is confirming the midlines as support, which on the daily hasn't happened in 5 months. Until that happens any higher targets are just wishful thinking and continued resistance. Kchannel midline is currently 3.92 and bb midline is 3.90.That is what I will be watching M, T and W next week.
Any good news. Well even though 5 of the last 6 candles are positive in price each one is a doji, so AVXL is at a strong resistance with 5 indecision candles. Also why M,T, W next week are important. Gotta get another higher high and higher low as well.
Green Trades
A daily for those with paid stockcharts accounts.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50983949093
Interesting to see those charts.
Are we still waiting to see how the index rebalancing selling goes, the listing/delisting issue, the frivolous lawsuit issue as well... and maybe that would mark the bottom zone reversal time. I'm thinking we don't have much great news coming for many weeks if not months. But the cheerleading market forces can pump it into a rally if they want to. The 3.60 support shoulder zone is one to keep watching now. It could still fail and roll over here at 3.80 area.
Hi, C, ... I'm feeling well, thanks. Agree with your views, the current rally, seems to me, would have a chance to develop a trend changing pattern... If it reaches 4.25-4.40 area, and Then pulls back to hold a support shoulder around 3.80-3.65 area. Maybe this picture would correspond with your money indicators turning bullish. ??
Yes, It has been a bearish chart for many weeks, until right now, this first upwave that showed some follow thru.with this step higher today, heading toward that 4.00-4.40 target zone. 4.20 right in the middle. And a basic 1 dollar rally wave from the contrived 3.25 "Bottom ". Maybe I'll end up being wrong about 3.25. But if the price action forces can sell and bleed it down from 6.80 to 3.25... they ought to be able to go one more step and reach 3.00. Today, I noticed they didn't allow price to hit 4.00. I still see the current zone here from 3.65 to 3.95 as a resistance trap, waiting to roll over and begin the next downwave, and maybe the Lowest Bottom target 2.90 area.
Steady as she goes Tom.
https://invst.ly/14n-nv
Here's a live version of the chart I posted in February, calling for a bottom @ 3.35 by May 1.
https://invst.ly/14n-u9
The chart you reference is an alternative scenario which, for the time being at least, is not in the cards.
https://invst.ly/14n-x7
Note my post today regarding the daily price flip which registered on 04/30.
https://invst.ly/14n-xk
Hi Tom. Always happy when you post. Hope life is treating you well in every way, especially health.
PS: for now 3.25 is at least a temporary bottom. See how long it lasts. Watching 3 money indicators to see when the negative flow begins to reverse. Also lots of resistance fro $4-5. Weekly view. Daily looks to be improving though.
I love a man with a sense of humor. Good one.
I see the flip but no conviction. I hope to be wrong.
Nice to see you here. Unless there is significant news you are right on. The first three days of this week have light volume. Bearish chart.
Hi guys, I'm looking at the same things you are. Do you think 3.25 will hold as a finished cycle Bottom? I havent been thinking it will .
Now here , a week after your chart post, the month is ending without any long tail, if that means anything. The current price around 3.65 looks a bit dangerous to me, a good place for price to roll over and sell down again. The small rally from 3.25 can't afford to tire out here. I'm looking at how an upwave from 3.25 could develop into a rally recovery, and establish 3.25 as a Bottom , we need to see the pattern reach the mid 4's at least. A support shoulder could develop here around 3.60, etc, ... we really need to see several days with higher highs and lows climbing. There hasn't been any signs of rally until now, when this week gave us 2 small bounces to 3.75 and a glimpse at 3.50 support for a chance to hold.
I don't mind buying more shares under
3 dollars . And when the rally time comes, I have a bunch to sell at 7 or 8.
Here is the monthly I have been watching. The wedge got obliterated. Indicators hold a negative view of holding the long term uptrend line. First 3 days next week are critical. I would have had a bit of optimism if Fridays red candle had a decent tail on it. Possible up if good news trumps the negative chart.
Stockcharts account needed to view complete chart from link. Otherwise you will just see the free chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74367434269&a=1593859224
You're welcome T. Glad you find the charts helpful. The phrase is from a soup commercial from my childhood in which mom is preparing the soup and the kids come in yelling "is it soup yet?" I used it in this case to mean, "are we there yet?" , or will price bottom in this area? You can see from the logarithmic scale charts that AVXL is sitting on a very long term trend line. Is it soup yet?
https://invst.ly/14jtlw
https://invst.ly/14jtn0
Thank you for all of your charts, I appreciate it. Sorry for the ignorant question, can you explain what soup means?
Fibonacci time, logarithmic space and the case for 3.35 on 5
https://invst.ly/14h7wa
The only positive I see is that we are oversold on all timeframes. Dropping below 3.65 takes us below 300 million market cap and out of the Russell. The shorts know it and will probably kick it down. XBI needs to reverse for there to be a chance. I could see this dropping below 2 with no news.
If 3.60 that was tested today fails and becomes resistance then entire zone down to 2.76 red line is in play.
If for whatever reason 2.76 fails then anything down to 2.20 is in play.
Just got to see step by step day by this goes.
OldMystics monthly is awesome.
This I have taken my numbers from is a weekly. Need a paid stockcharts account to view. Sorry for that
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04022899542&a=1660105214
Couldn't get a screenshot to post from my desktop. I stopped being able to when they changed the format about 3 or 4 weeks ago. Too old and lazy to chase it down. Haha
You nailed it. What next?
I am not ready to declare unrecoverable.
Broken in the sense that there is nothing to gauge where a bottom might be.
Broken in the sense that it is going to take a lot of glue to repair price.
Broken in the sense that there is no TA that will get it back to even the bottom of the gap area.
In the last 5 months nothing has gotten price above the down trending midline while lower bands continue getting pushed downward.
Major news is needed. Until that happens price is broken and in pieces. It will require fundamentals leading the way.
This is just my opinion. Positive news trumps charts and disappointment. Sure would like to see some come our way.
You mean it is not in a position to recover?
Is broken too strong of a descriptor to place on AVXL?
Yep, the T/A is looking pretty ugly.
Samo, samo. About to set another 4 year closing low. Need substance. Nice to do presentations, however they no longer move the needle or support price.
$AVXL trying to create a support today if it can string together some green.
Ugly technicals aside, a near term event on my horizon to help create a market cap based support is announcement of the Parkinson's Disease P3 trial start sponsored by MJFF and Shake it Up Foundation Australia.
It is an example of egregious manipulation enabled by AI trading algos which can overwhelm human reasoning that takes place at a lower response level.
Human investors who fail to comprehend this variable are so screwed...
New all most 4 year lower lows as downward continues. Weekly chart doesn't give any signs this can't continue. Only news can trump what is happening.
Weekly https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12046728087
Daily. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32880584314
Rejection again at the daily midlines. Down channel samo, samo. with lower highs. If general market action and XBI continue on their current direction then AVXL will be setting a lower low and all time low. Market is definite detriment to AVXL price in this period of no solid news.
Potential bottoming action. Testing the daily bb and kchannel midlines again. Can it create support this time? Only the shadow knows.
Price is also close to testing the upper down channel trend line.
Note the quantity and quality of overhead resistance even if the down trend line is broken. Need some news, not just chart movement.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47856182655&a=1637906248[
4 year low for AVXL. Down channel on the daily continues. Weekly chart has room for more down as does the daily channel.
This action will not be halted by a chart. IMO, it is an issue of company fundamentals.
Sure the daily upper channel down trend line could be tested, but what is going to actually reverse the trend? Positive news of a fundamental nature will be required. JMO.
Looks right. Stinks though.
Thankfully I have the advantage of riding low basis shares and of being very well off financially, making $AVXL more of a hobby stock to follow for the "story" and science potential. Thus, I have the luxury of time to let the story play out.
Hopefully you have been able to sell some rips and buy some dips to reduce or eliminate your risk.
One has little to no stress when the risk price is so far below the buy in price that even BK is not scary when compared to the actual investment.
Riding "free" is a great relaxer, while giving the needed time for bio approvals.
Green Trades.
Agreed, from a technical standpoint $AVXL is in a very precarious position.
As I've stated before, I'm in $AVXL for the "news" and follow the technicals as a side hobby. I have made various biotech bets in companies that modulate Sigma 1 and muscarinic receptors of which $AVXL is in that group.
Yep, your and my daily agree. Fancy that. 🤔
Green Trades.
By my count, the AVXL bb midline (20SMA) has been tested at least 14 times and rejected since end of January 2024.
If the potential double bottom, fails with confirmation then things could get really ugly without strong news.
Since the gap down, the down channel has been unrelenting.
Fingers crossed and rabbits foot out that this recent 5 candle formation is a bottom.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47856182655&a=1637906248
Green Trades.
Attention has shifted to 3-71 and the Phase 2 study in Schizophrenia scheduled to complete on 05/15.
https://invst.ly/143uc2
https://invst.ly/143uww
There appears to be some signs of support with the first test at the 20 day SMA for $AVXL
It looks real ugly. Would love to see a reversal but not real hopeful. Oversold but could get much worse. Yuk
Ouch. Price closed crashing into the lower daily bb. If tomorrow confirms then pushing that line and price lower gains in odds.
Skinny red uptrend line used to be a blue line. Now red to show that it failed and adjusted the blue uptrend to show present. Daily.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53478026961&a=1580806866
Monthly Look not looking very good.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74367434269&a=1593859224
I do not know about the 6.4 million share trade but it is there on the chart. Volume precedes price so someone wanted to change. Bollinger bands are very narrow and there are positive divergences. 32 months in a decline is long in the tooth. I assume the shorts and BP are trying for a bear hug. Something has to give as price is at the apex of the triangle.
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