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The absurdity of all the false outrageous and impossible assertions and later retractions that cost lots of money in defamation cases has done the damage they sought. THEY put it out there and the TRUMP CULT lick it up. In fact, the cost to these publications is nothing compared to the loss of revenue if they didn't lie.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/oan-retracts-and-apologizes-for-false-story-about-key-trump-trial-witness/ar-AA1nSM4s?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=39bcf6b58d68485196bcee01ee0de16d&ei=13
Please don't think I am all cynicism about the future but rather a madman seeing clearly the path we are heading to and unable to steer it away. A good sailor can predict the storm and its path based on personal experiences. I have had decades of experience. A hung jury or on the outside chance of a conviction only means the courts will find a way to delay, put aside, or declare that the premise of the trial should not have been allowed. It is the hardest case to prove against all the other more serious cases and yet on its own it is so darn easy to make the correct choice. A simpleton with 5th grade education and mental capacity is required for this case alone while a 3rd grader can find Trump guilty on all the rest.
MOOT POINT! There is no way TRUMP ever sees one day in jail. There is a guarantee once in office he will DESTROY completely the republic and make the Supreme Court the laughingstock of the world. That is till that branch is torn off completely. I WARNED about the Supreme Court being and extension of TRUMP a long while ago. How is my score? Anyone keeping track?
I not only see TRUMP as the KING but a surprise upsurge in congressional Republican control. In fact the possibility of a trifecta complete control of federal rule is well over 70%. The smiling Dems keep relying on facts and common sense with a dash of moral indignation to come to their senses. Did this world not recently go thru the Hitler 12-year reign? Do they think it was a one-off situation?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-supreme-court-majority-sounds-sold-on-trump-s-big-lie/ar-AA1nRNwq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=29f590e779bd4024b041a7d5ff6e9c4c&ei=53
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/read-brett-kavanaugh-s-opinion-on-presidential-immunity/ar-AA1nSwVg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4a87fa3cf87f4e5b86939ed0382119af&ei=6
Just 2 of many articles recently presented. They act as if this wasn't an already completed task right after trump managed to elect 3 extreme right fanatical judges that plan to undue 60 ears of progress.
TRUMP has a clear path and i just can't wait for his impulse to explode into chaos. Once anointed king I can promise you that even the most loyal supreme court judge will anger trump and cut off that branch of government with one swift chop. Seems even the most corrupt judge and lawyer will either fall under Trumps decision he no longer needs them or forcibly be removed by trump himself. I marvel at the stupidity of these constitutionalists that put blinders on declaring themselves immune to persecution as well.
ALL THINGS moving as planned as if the devil and god have purposely positioned the world into a big one battle and purging.
But hey, I am a lunatic since 50% of voters can't even acknowledge the anti-Christ is here. Astonishing. latest POLL shows TRUMP by 5% and sealing the electoral college!
Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible - MARKET INSIDER article
Seems my very long-standing assumption on Inflation is finally getting thru. Not yet the mainstream but coming. The market baked in 3 or at a minimum 2 rate cuts this year and with it the high multiples on the P/E ratio. What happens if stagflation occurs? Think the 70's. the market went down and stayed there for a very long period. the lost decade. This time around we start at even higher multiples and accelerated profit expectations. This will devastate the market and when inflation continues higher it will cause massive defaults in many sectors of the economy. The recent run-on banks will be a small example and magnified 10-fold.
But this takes time and a slow realization from multiple months of higher inflation to finally set in.
On a decent vacation and coming back the same old but more so. The charts are pretty consistent. SPX has a Shiller ratio chart showing a very uniform 7 wave structure hitting a high around 38 P/E. IF we actually manage to break above that mark (highly unlikely) we will have a NINETH wave. I suspect we either attempt a double top or never get to that high mark. STAGFLATION is now being talked about. Some see the las GDP numbers as alarming. The street is absorbing the assumption of NO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR! It is taking a while to do so and the current drop seems like a consolidation pattern. Bitcoin has a really nice consolidation structure suggesting we have more upside ahead. Even Trump Social is rebounding from obvious dismal earnings prospects. Even the Stupreme Court is making itself know just how radical it is. They are proposing that TRUMP has absolute immunity and anything and everything he does is just fine with them. They even use a hypothetical example of future persecution of a president. They have already made sure he wins the next election. Once he is in office, I suspect he will defy a Supreme Court decision and even go so far as to demand they get dissolved. Think this is too radical even for trump? In fact, it is almost a forgone conclusion. There will be a case that pushes even the extreme right court to vote against trump. When that happens, we find out if they have any power to enforce any ruling offensive to trump.
ALL scholars are shocked just how radical and unconstitutional the Stupreme Court ruling have become.
EVERYTHING in place for the granddaddy of all political, economic, social and moral reversals., I suspect STRONLY the current Hush Money case will end in a hung jury. Even if there is a verdict of guilty, he will not spend one day in jail and the outcome will sway NO ONE on voting.
The Supreme Court has sealed our fate as I suspected they would. It also seals their own. Everything and everyone involved in loyalty for the Trump Mafia end up a chattered victim. The number of lawyers going to jail or stripped of their license is astonishing. The Teflon Don will quickly show his pent-up anger and not a full year in office will there be before the WORLD understands the consequence.
The unholy truth of Democratic political strategy is that they believe a barrage of embarrassing remarks and rulings by the GOP will shock and embarrass those voters that supported them. They just can't accept that 50% of this nation wants the insanity to continue in order to feel good about themselves and their stance that the "other" has caused their problem. Irrational behavior is normal in human history, ONLY a direct cause and effect will change that. You don't get that type of response till AFTER the event comes to a conclusion.
Market: By JUNE we should see 4800 area as the final low. This assumes INFLATION is still a question mark and no spike moves higher or lower. If that pattern emerges July thru September should see a huge rebound perhaps equaling or exceeding the old highs. October thru December right now is a big question mark.
I just don't have a clue where or when the final top occurs.
In the past we should hit a low today followed by 2 or even 3 days of sharp rebounds. This makes sense if the drop is to continue till June. Slip sliding. I also believe the WORSE of the drop is here and the rest will be a calm complacent reinforcement that it is just a normal correction. If we cut thru todays lows Monday, we could actually be seeing a really deep drop followed by a short but spectacular rebound. Odds of the latter are small today.
The STAND! Stephen Kings very simplistic story of good vs evil is a modern take on the biblical example of Sodom and Gamoran. The daily press releases on corruption at all levels of government and hedonistic personal behavior with an ever-increasing willingness to boast seems to be cheered by the public as if they themselves wished they had the power to do so also. Projecting their own unfulfilled desires onto them.
In as simple terms we embrace a Hitler persona because it is far easier to blame the weak and make concrete our fears than to become introspective and expose our own weakness of character. Like all cycles in life, we are once again circling around to the darkest periods in our history. Humans' physical advancement in intellectual brain expansion while the primitive older part of the brain dealing with emotions are stymied makes for one hell of a conflict. 90 years ago, we barely come out of it intact. Place your bets!
I LOVE being right as it boosts my own ego knowing i am special and unique as an individual. Perverse admission but true. But as i have explained decades ago I can live with being a total failure and take my personal consequence for it than be right and watch everything around me fall to dust. SADLY, only a MIRACLE in my estimation would reverse the fixed course I set out. Democrats and some republicans are finally pancaking over the prospect of Trump winning. They are STILL using the old notion that exposing Trump will change their minds.
What the DEMS need to do is EXPOSE our own HATE and EVIL shaming us into submission. That will NEVER HAPPEN!
TRUMP guaranteed the crown! Thanks to FOX, GOP, Federal Judge, and of course the Supreme Court!
Startling concept. A man that was exposed for the most horrendous unimaginable crimes like RAPE, SEDITION, EXTORTION, and even TREASON has maintained his stronghold by the voters. To a man or woman, they use the excuse that BIDEN is WORSE! The current NY case is the weakest, most complicated, and likely to get a hung jury. EVEN if he is convicted it will not sway ONE PERSON. But many reading this, and by now that number dwindled to a handful that voted for TRUMP shake their heads as if attempted a joke that wasn't funny.
The cannon case will NEVER EVER SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY! All cases against Trump, be it state, federal will also not see a jury trial. All outraged elitists that gave up on the hope of returning the two-tier society have regained their mojo and have advanced so far as to shout out their bigotry as a badge of honor. They ride the devils' coattails using our own personal moral struggles to their advantage. Once Trump made it crystal clear that freely boasting evil intent gets you elected, they all jumped over themselves to follow the same strategy.
BUT the press and news outlets not corrupted, along with the 45% of voters that are in shock and horror over Trumps candidacy STILL to this day actually believe by having trials and sentencing will somehow wake all the others up. The concept that these majority voters WANT actions and behavior of Trump and the GOP to continue. They foolishly think after all this time they just haven't been given the true story.
While both sides of the moral dilemma couldn't be more opposite their behavior greatly benefits the devil. One is already a convert while the other is so far gone in believing the good in all that they actually think one day they will wake up to trumps corruption and immoral behavior and be disgusted by it. They are as delusional as the fanatics worshiping the man.
I POSTED the final solution YEARS AGO! I knew with certainty TRUMP will destroy our country for generations to come, assuming we live thru it. I POSTED on the day of his inauguration the final outcome would be a dismantled republic and i was ridiculed. NOW they conveniently forget my prophecy and their attitude and latch onto any notion that survives their original intent. From righteous indignation for those trying to take down a saint messenger form God to accepting he is a down to earth man that has faults but means well. He is the repentant one that will bring back GLORY to the White Christain male and the biblically correct interpretation of their role in the world.
I proved the insanity of the times with a 100-year-old plague resurfacing and the mass majority of the investor was sanguine complacent and used twisted logic to stay invested for 5 LONG WEEKS! Now we are living with the antichrist that failed to complete his mission and will complete it soon enough.
HOW anyone thinks his return wouldn't affect the elitist (White Christian) profits in the stock market must be as smart as his own personal lawyers that got disbarred and jailed for lying to stay LOYAL! Everything Trump touches thru his lifetime has turned to dung for all those that rode along but managed to keep himself ensconced in gold.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ken-you-lost-this-case-texas-ag-mocked-for-absurdly-claiming-a-win-after-supreme-court-rules-9-0-against-him/ar-BB1lNqov?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6e26f8612fb94971a1ca63fc4c35eb75&ei=15
Just one example of many that the state and federal legislature is back in the Tammany Hall era.
Market trying to come to terms with NO RATE CUT IN JUNE! They will of course assume it has to happen right after that meeting. So how does a market that was assured 2 or 3 rate cuts this year handle the situation? Why by finding reasons to still be bullish at these high P/E ratios. It takes time but we have a great capacity for deluding ourselves with any preposterous idea they can latch onto.
Today is day14 of the slide. Way too controlled so no panic in sight. Let's see if we can reverse and rally here as we did in November.
The pattern both in the SP500 and Bitcoin seem in sync. Both look as if we are in the 3-month correction phase. That still places end of JUNE as possible lows. The ONLY way that can occur is for inflation data to stay mixed or even drop. It also assumes a spark, a rate cut perhaps. Since the early 70's had a period of disinflation before spiking a lot higher this too might be happening here.
The other pattern i have discovered is that the assumed rebound should last 5 months. Late June to late November? First we need to see if the move till end of June is part of the correction. Then we have to see a sharp rally kicking off July. IF those things occur i would bet the late October to late November scenario for a top and a monumental crash.
I have been waiting for such a crash and the combination of a TRUMP win with GOP control favoring businesses it could be the catalyst needed. Of course, the street would have to be totally oblivious to TRUMPS actions. That seems very doable. Then we need a spike inflation period at the same moment. A final hurrah over TRUMP win followed by sobering reality from Trump and the inflation data.
I made these future predictions many times and all were completely wrong. Law of averages? I am massively BIAS as I have been from day one of the announced Pandemic. I pounded the argument home that the market was completely irrational and got laughed at. ONLY the FIRST DEATH here in the US caused a crash response. OBTUSE! The same people that voter for TRUMP find reasons to actually think Biden is a monster and Trump just slightly flawed. The ability of individuals to dismiss the obvious because they don't want to face its conclusions is a repetitive pattern of ours. we do horrific things in the name of GOD , country and self-centered false superiority. Imagine comparing Biden, a man that has NO crimes, no evidence of any kind to illicit behavior. YET WE COMPARE HIM TO TRUMP AND TRUMP WINS?
if anyone wondered how Germany could latch onto Hitler for !2 years and do so believing their inner prejudice was correct than it stands to reason trump can do the same. We are a spiteful hateful selfish creature. Politicians know this and rely on it to divert their own monstrous behavior. I dare anyone to define the attributes of an antichrist better than Trump has.
I have proven over and over just how easy it is to have a trillion-dollar market fool itself and do so in a clear transparent way. The winter that is coming will be one where it is likely we don't recover from.
NO ONE. I mean (NO ONE) ever saw rates moving higher here. The dollar yields and expectation. ALL analysts and brokerage firms factored in 3 rate cuts for this year spurring exciting big earnings gains. Why else are we at a dangerous P/E level today? The call was unanimous as they explained the laws of physics demanded rates drop. In fact they gave thousands of reasons why it is impossible to have inflation ever again.
BUT ME!
It is now on a trajectory that suggests at some point, perhaps 10 year approaching 5 percent where any drop will be exaggerated, and stock rally assured. That is until more accumulated data shows not only a stubborn resistance to lower inflation but an actual acceleration. I can't harp enough just how full proof a crash is when everyone sees the world with tinted glasses. I have looked for years to find anyone expecting danger for higher inflation. Found NONE! That makes for a crash. Like a known Pandemic that the science gets completely ignored and comes to a shocking conclusion AFTER there is ONE DEATH Like electing TRUMP completely excusing his criminality and INSANE stance.
I can spend an eternity trying to understand human behavior at the extreme but will fail ever time. I can only shake my head and conclude we are self-destructive.
How big was Powells announcement? Monumental. Like the world labeling the virus as a runaway Pandemic. How likely will the street heed the implications? All we have to do is wait. One week, two, three? If we just see a normal correction here and a multi-week rebound the answer is simple. We stay in a pocket of irrational exuberance. Even if rates and the dollar keep defying their desire for it to steady or go lower. You are now witnessing the MOTHER of ALL PAST MANIAS.
Maybe we continue this slide for another week and then resume a slow and steady rebound? A faster one? A sideways move? DO NOT KNOW!
But I can assure you we are NOT in the FIFTH WEEK of a PANDEMIC just yet. This mega move has legs, and such an insane valuation takes time for everyone to wrap their heads around the immediate consequences dead ahead. DEAD AHEAD! An arbitrary concept. The longer the mega bull run arguably from 40 years ago the more likely the sledgehammer would have to strike 2 or even 3 times before they realize they are dead. Maybe i got this all wrong being so cynical.
NAH!
Hold the presses! Powell just announced inflation stubbornly high and deflation stalling. Wow what an observation! Translation: forget about it! Rate cuts this year seems like a very wishful dream. Wait till it starts to back up and drum roll…. It must be already seen by the Fed for this announcement today.
The real estate bets housing bank gambles borrowing costs etc. will cause a shock as the roulette wheel jumps to a stop. What number will come up?
Turns out I was wrong in assuming Trump was the most dangerous entity on this planet. The cumulative evidence now shows by a wide margin the Supreme Court has taken over the revolution and validated the sedition as a means to their end. They will squash any attempt at prosecuting Trump and go so far as to strip even states rights. They will make sure Trump and the GOP destroy all progressive challenges to a strongly held belief that white men are the only qualified people to dominate the rule of law. With it naturally implies Christian beliefs.
It seems unlikely now that Trump has to challenge the Supreme Court since all rulings will benefit him. Now that 2 of the 3 branches of government is secure the last will topple quickly.
This looks like a full wave correction that almost always lasts 3 months. That places the drop to end around 6/1 to 6/15. It also assumes a very shallow drop from 5/1 to 6/1-15. So far, the worse of the drop should be here soon followed by a steady but slow drawdown. It also implies that JUNE Fed meeting will be positive for stocks. I can't currently see that scenario, but the chart looks best if it fit that pattern. This implies that the FED will lower rates in June meeting. If they do not lower rates or suggest strongly, they intend to at the next meeting after we could be seeing a decent drop and a fast one at that.
I wish i had a better handle on the move but in the final euphoric phase of the bull run it becomes very hard to figure out. The best-case scenario is a market that reverses higher in mid-June on. That would imply the final last wave structure is here. Like i stated before it is a pure guess at this stage and in the past few years the pattern has been to always rebound from any deep drop almost immediately. The ONLY difference is that we have lived in a higher borrowing environment for much longer than anything seen in the recent past.
Even BITCOIN seems like it is consolidating from a normal corrective phase. The street seems complacent here, so a little shakeup only puts it back on its heels.
The universal consensus is that earnings window will be the best in a long time going forward. The banks always kick off earnings season and it usually causes most of the angst. We are in that window today. Morphing into anything more damaging is possible but for me unlikely.
Still in the correction phase as the seasonality accounts for it. Dollar and 10-year Bond finally waking up to the strong opinion that INFLATION combined with economic activity have been strong and seems to be consolidating with a possible breakout event in next few months. In other words, the street had a wet dream about rate cuts this year, one after the other. The FED might actually do so to make sure the economy is accelerating during election period. If they do, we can be assured of a really big jump in inflation right after. Either way rate cuts will cause a disaster while no rate cuts will build towards a disaster. The economy is acting as if the current rates are no bother.
To be clear we had a bank run not seen since the 1920's because of the HUGE BETS by banks that rates were going to be lower. The current situation has not changed, and the laws to this day do not prevent a future debacle. Under the surface debt strain is huge. The FED knows this and wants any excuse to lower rates and is stalling by presenting this scenario knowing darn well they have NO control over the future path of inflation.
On track now. Finally see the breakout from a long consolidation period. The dollar and yields are screaming. Loud and clear they do NOT see any rate cuts this year. NONE! Like i said, if the FED ignores the inflation signs and cuts anyway, I expect an initial reaction of exuberance by wall street. That just makes for a quicker more dramatic spike and crash. A condensed version of what I expect. Will the FED cut this year? Will there be any call for it based on economic activity? Doesn't really matter. Psychology is everything. Just like a Pandemic that was ignored till it no longer could be.
We have a possible 4th wave correction here. Both corrections happened between 2 and 2.5 months apart. IF 4/12 is the lows of this correction we can expect the 5th wave to hit no earlier than 6/12 and most likely at the end of JUNE! It only describes a 5-wave short term move and not whether we are in the longer-term ending pattern. Retail sales doing just fine and the dollar and bond yields have definitely broken out. I suspect it remains in a shallow upside trajectory from here. The slower the move the more wall street will accept it without complaining.
The odds of trump ever seeing jail time is as close to zero as possible. The odds he wins the presidency is as close to 100% as possible. I suspect Wall Street will cheer the news till he opens his mouth in public. The Supreme Court made sure he would be on the ballot and win. They will be rewarded with a slap in the face by TRUMP and the GOP soon after his election. He is bound to exceed his legal authority and the Supreme Court will be forced to rule against him. That first ruling will be met with disdain and become the first of many rulings that just get ignored. What I do know is besides rounding up millions of illegals he will go after his enemies with a vengeance. The most powerful man in the world with the GOP behind him is like Putin and the Politburo.
I find it so ludicrous that the people voting him in, helping his cause would naturally be the first casualties. He takes a perverse pleasure in punishing those that are loyal. New York, prosecutors, mayors, senators, state assemblies will all feel the wrath of a dictator. Even private citizens will not escape his determination to punish all.
BUT before the awakening Wall Street will SURGE! The final last signature blowoff rivalling all others.
LONGEST downturn for over 5 months! Shallow but anxiety has finally caught hold. We will be watching for economic strength and signs that both manufacturing and services are well above 50 (even). Since jobs are still very strong any continued strength in those economic areas and the likelihood of rate cuts anytime soon is out the window,
Dollar has broken out! Not yields yet.
Inflation is only one part of the equation for the FED to cut rates. They have to see enough weakness to JUSTIFY a cut. There isn't any yet. In fact, the current situation suggests the consumer is accepting current borrowing costs and even starting to accelerate their purchases.
It is obvious the FED wants to find an excuse to cut pre-election. If they do cut premature the result will be swift. A spike move causing INFLATION to take off.
I still expect mid to late JUNE to be one possible steep quick drop. I don't actually anticipate it then, but that window seems open.
Seems we are NOW in the corrective phase. Slow and steady. It might morph into a deeper drop, but odds favor we stay in the well-defined uptrend.
The TALK about INFLATION at the same time THREE RATE CUTS are expected is as logical as the Pussy Magnet rapist getting evangelical voters to cheer him on. I told ya TRUMP will be our next and possibly last president. I know 99.9% of ya still see my rants as irrational unnecessary and fear mongering. But all I have to do is present to a rational voter with average intelligence the facts and ask they explain the rational and I will get complete silence. I have been doing just that for many years and nor a single response to counter the reality of the situation.
We are the ONLY nation that is not sliding back into a deflationary long-standing pattern of some 40 years. ONCE China gets traction, and it will, you can expect inflation to accelerate. The dollar has finally BROKEN OUT! Now a sign that the FED needs to cut rates is it. But the street will find ways to ignore reality till that one death by a known Pandemic kills on US soil.
Bitcoin is about to break out also building a solid base ever higher. From 70K to 80K will test the major resistance and if it manages to break even that this bubble has longer and much higher to go.
One thing i am certain of, this period of time marks the most irrational immoral unethical corrupt period during peace time. Arizona banned all abortions based on an 1864 ruling well before it even became a statehood. Seems their understanding of science and acceptance of non-white races was advanced. Imagine applying all their past rulings onto todays public. Blacks would immediately be chained and sold, woman would be stoned by their father or husband for daring to speak out of turn, Gun control would be met with killing anyone that tried to change the law on the spot. We live in the WILD WILD WEST!
The insanity of the situation is so frightening it becomes comical. How else can you cope. But don't you worry, these changes are just the beginning. The speed at which we revert to accepting vigilantes, purging the white race of impurities, and total lawlessness behavior being praised has only a mere 12 months to complete. The speed at which we plunge into chaos will even be seen by the fanatic. They will be euphoric over this change while the rest of us curled up into a ball refusing to accept reality.
I hope we can HOLD UP till early next year or at least till the next president is elected. I KNOW who TRUMP is and what he plans for his 4 year final orgasmic reign. Anyone with half a brain would know also. But I digress. I also know with certainty this nation is already gone. The path is set, point of no return. When the street realizes it will affect their precious stock market is another matter. OBTUSE! Like expecting 3 rate cuts as the economy strengthens.
Market obsessed fixated and down right determined to get what it wants this June. Rate cut. Can you imagine such a strong labor market receiving a rate cut when GDP is very strong wages rising and manufacturing back in positive territory? I mean let’s get real. In the off chance the Fed does find an excuse to lower rates what do you think happens as a response? Lower economic activity or higher? incentive to accelerate economic activity beyond the 3% To encourage inflation to run higher?
June was my first possible crash date but I gave that small odds. Now however if the data shows strong labor wages and nagging high inflation and the Fed does not declare cuts off the table we could have an ideal crash situation.
No one believes me when I say the market needs rate cuts as opposed to wants it. Lots of long term borrowing could see defaults. Lots of assays depend on lower rates. Surprised economists are oblivious to this.
Let the continued data determine which is on track.
Market obsessed fixated and down right determined to get what it wants this June. Rate cut. Can you imagine such a strong labor market receiving a rate cut when GDP is very strong wages rising and manufacturing back in positive territory? I mean let’s get real. In the off chance the Fed does find an excuse to lower rates what do you think happens as a response? Lower economic activity or higher? incentive to accelerate economic activity beyond the 3% To encourage inflation to run higher?
June was my first possible crash date but I gave that small odds. Now however if the data shows strong labor wages and nagging high inflation and the Fed does not declare cuts off the table we could have an ideal crash situation.
No one believes me when I say the market needs rate cuts as opposed to wants it. Lots of long term borrowing could see defaults. Lots of assays depend on lower rates. Surprised economists are oblivious to this.
Let the continued data determine which is on track.
Economists declare this is a great period in time to invest in stocks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/momentum-is-so-strong-jeremy-siegel-says-the-us-stock-market-bull-run-isn-t-over-and-points-to-1-attractive-group-with-a-lot-of-ways-to-go/ar-BB1l7qV5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=dc0e715c8d534430b6bdb2d0ce0b6dc9&ei=61
They can't Invision anything going wrong. You see when you have blinders on and refuse to even consider an alternative scenario it is easy to become complacent. No evaluation of events if inflation picks up from here. NONE! astonishing. It is a solid denial that inflation even has a remote chance of taking place. The reason is simple. it is really bad news if it were to occur for no economists would ever declare that scenario as benefiting earnings. NONE! So what do you do, why pretend it isn't a concern. How did the market rally in a PANDEMIC? Easy, the masses decided they have an excuse to dismiss it all together.
All this is happening with a 100 percent euphoric mindset in the economy as they excuse the election of an antichrist. Does that sound normal to you? This sucker can indeed breakdown anytime but i suspect the longevity has placed concrete barriers to reality so a full year from now seems more plausible.
With manufacturing activity surging well above expectations and prices also rising much higher with the added jobs report the notion that the FED wants to STIMULATE is INSANE! But we know the real reason the street is anxious for a rate cut. They fear long term damage due to bowwows and lenders long standing practice of assuming disinflation would create profits for everyone. The exact opposite will happen if it doesn't reverse soon. The other reason is competition. The street doesn't want any. The slow crawling buildup to a possible breakout inflation event is still going on with no sign of a major change just yet. Slow and steady.
The longer we remain at these rates with a strong economy the more likely the policy shifts. The mistake would be to lower rates this year and i believe the FED would do just that. The subsequent spike in inflation would be dramatic if they do appease the investor.
From Trump Truth Social debacle, Michigan Police endorsement of trump and the desperate Wall Street plea for rate cuts. What a time to be living. It epitomizes the culmination of greed, morally vacant, emotionally numbed voters. 300K new jobs and the street expects between 6 and 3 rate cuts this year?
I guess if the street thought a pandemic would not disrupt the stock market. we are now in good company. But the technical indicators are pointing to a solid 2024.
That should mean that someway, somehow the street ignores all the disasters till after the election. Personally, i find that hard to swallow but human nature being what it is suggests the blinders stay on till it is torn off.
The rolling acceptance of delayed rate cuts. From 6 to 3 to ???? INSANE that anyone thought a GDP of over 3%, surging jobs, wage growth was going to cause the FED to lower rates? The desperation on the part of Wall Street to believe in cuts here seems to be dismissed as if their concern has no real backing to it. it does and no one wants to see it. Like a Pandemic coming to our shores. But that might take time to understand and i am afraid the street will not be crashing on anticipation of 6 months down the road. they will need absolute proof that the profit train is getting derailed.
So maybe it will take absolute proof and a wakeup call that it already happened. That scenario implies early next year. Me i can never understand the obstinate stance on what will happen. Heck 5 weeks after an announced pandemic? But for now, the street will find excuses to put inflation behind them.
The stupidity of human nature makes anticipating repetitive responses a sure thing. Rate Cut when the economy is surging? Manufacturing is solidly in the black along with all aspects of economy. Can you imagine having a rate cut here? Like pouring gasoline to a fire. I do marvel at the ability of fantasy optimism to catch on so easily and quickly.
Ask yourself how it is possible for economists.to declare a New Paradigm in the late 1920's and see only strong profits as far as the eye can see? Then to be wrong in such a degree is simply astonishing. You would think that the great depression didn't happen on a whim, on a late-night discovery. Surely the forces behind the depression were lurking and visible. Surely economists must have been able to see this as a strong possibility. And all the other crashes? In particular the Pandemic. To this day all those experts and current prognosticators that declare the sky is clear and profits will accelerate from here are the same ones that never saw a crash even AFTER the Pandemic was clearly spreading.
The news on the RSI indicator has never been wrong so far. It declares a solid strong upside for next 10 months. I can't deny its track record but, in my assessment, it can only happen with interest rates, bond yields, dollar not much higher than we have it today. That means MY expectations have to be tempered on inflation till next year. MY scenario would not allow rates to spike any higher and have a solid bullish move on Wall Street. I await the inflation data to see if I am wrong on the timing.
DAY TWO of the slide! The notion that a rate cut isn't coming has sunk in. We have never had more than a 4-day consecutive slide and i expect this one will be no different. Just a hiccup? Most likely. Watch the steady but strong evidence of a reversal in the dollar and bond yields. It should continue on a shallow upward trajectory where no one pays attention to the ramification.
Imagine all the suckers and fanatics that kiss the ground Trump walks on gobbling up a loser stock that has the uncanny similarity to everything trump touches. I can imagine these same people are doubling down around now.
TRUTH SOCAIL stock has just plunged to earth days after its launch. BUT count on TRUMO to be able to cash in very soon taking out 3 billion in presumed value. The man constantly screws his loyalists as they jumped in at the offer not even bothering to see the fundamentals. .
Trump fleeces his cult as they remain in a trance. The stock is worthless based on just released disclosures..
In other words, Trump begged his followers for money with no ability to pay it back. The stock is likely to be worthless within 12 to 18 months. But he gets to keep the 3 BILLION (if) he can dump it on the open market. We don't even know the terms of the deal. he could be dumping them already. .
The man has the Midas touch for himself and the black plague for everyone involved.
Just the data and market predictions on this post. Current inflation and economic activity strongly suggest there will be NO RATE CUTS in June. Bond yields should start the next cycle higher. Data points to accelerated recovery in manufacturing. There is an RSI Indicator that seems pretty foolproof. A reading over 50 for 80 consecutive days has never seen the stock market lower 12 months out! The reading hit the 80-day mark in mid-January of this year implying next year by middle of January we should be higher than we are now. It also suggests a 15% or higher move in that time span. In other words, it is smooth sailing Up and away. Could be explosive year.
The record on this one technical indicator has been 100 percent accurate so far. 12 months out has ALWAYS seen a strong result from start to finish. There can be weakness in between but the drops will be short lived. Calling for a giddy explosive year.
If my understanding of this ending super cycle timeline is accurate, we might not get a decent drop in June thru August. We might instead continue ever higher till early next year. With the street anxious about the need for rate cuts and the election cycle I personally find this scenario hard to swallow. BUT I have been misreading the mental/emotional score for years. If the street already discounts a TRUMP win it seems like the Pandemic acceptance. ONLY after the crap hit the fan did the market react. That also means Trump antics in November when he wins will be ignored as just talk. January inauguration with a minimum 30-day grace period if not longer, the RSI Indicator can be accurate.
Can you imagine another 12 plus months of calm profitable complacent market reaction? What a spike move that would make.
Many of my posts are unintelligible based on my emotional state. No matter how long i have predicted the path we are on I still get mad over the inability for humans to recognize their fatal attractions. We are numbed by Trumps actions and the GOP debasement. Now we add the Supreme Court for a complete understanding of our fate.
There is nothing in the stories of the Bible that can be dismissed as poetic license and embellishment more than the last decade of our Trump saga. The facts and truth come off as a fairy tale with no hope of anyone taking it seriously. Even today 50% of Americans call it an unfair attack on Trump and his supporters. Can you imagine 50 years from now what the world would interpret from these facts?
The panicked Democratic Party is in desperation mode. They thought trump and the GOP would self-destruct with their lies, hate, and contradictory policies. They misinterpreted the situation and the ability for voters to accept horrendous actions and behavior as long as their own petty ignorant complaints are addressed. Trump uses direct strategy from Hitler and even quotes him. The Democrats will NEVER EVER use shame and guilt on the American voter to expose their own evil intent. That long standing policy of turning the other cheek will guarantee the new political state.
The stock market is surging higher and longer on a 40-year run where even a crash would be gobbled up quickly. The disconnect between the dangers we are put in and the euphoric greed should rival the roaring 20's. The resulting pain will exceed all past wars by a factor of 100.
I marvel at the ability for levelheaded honest institutions to stick to its moral standings in the face of pure evil. I can only assume they have not registered the possible outcome of this battle. Like the JEW in Germany believing it was all political posturing and refused to accept their fate. TRUMP and the GOP will go to war with China in order to save their power structure. Will align with the evil axis, grant maximum isolationist laws, deport millions with no due process.
I know what all of you are thinking. I am just one man with excess emotional baggage that needs to take his meds. I wish that were true. Not the part about emotional baggage. I admit as much. But my posts from 8 years ago predicting where we are today must account for something. The deranged minds of the political leaders must be recognized as i exposed the truth so long ago. The inability for even the most die-hard fanatical supporter of the GOP and TRUMP to debate specific horrendous facts as the list mount must mean something.
The total destruction of our republic is already set and will be completed shortly. While many now can see this possibility mounting as a probability, they still can't imagine it affecting them personally. In fact, most actually think it would benefit them as they have the qualifications to laws and policy that will improve their lives. Being white and Christian means the crazy man and crazy political party would benefit my standing.
The next full year should start waking up even the most cult like individual to a scary future possibility. The GOP, Stupreme Court, and Presidency will have committed to the new world order, and they will not give it up for anything. They will protect Trump till he is safely in a silo and the world comes apart.
I can't emphasize enough the notion that entropy can't be denied. From order to disorder. The laws of nature demand this. Our winter is upon us and no one seems remotely concerned. In ONE YEARS TIME I suspect i no longer have to write these dire warnings and assume I am mentally challenged.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-supreme-court-just-tipped-the-scales-for-house-republicans/vi-BB1kMg0f?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ae2a7b1ce01b4f1d96264e068d8004be&ei=13
The supreme court is a friend of Trump and uses his tried-and-true method to make sure the cases are delayed forever! EVIL! They do it over and over again JUST as they overburdened the laws on black discrimination. You see those days are over. there is no voter disenfranchising today. No it is an anomaly that the same RED States are doing what they have done before the affirmative action went into law and NOW doing the same after. Gee whiz what a coincidence.
The SUPREME COURT a body that has absolute authority to rule any way they deem helpful to their cause, their prejudices even if their decisions are contrary to the bedrock of the constitution. They have proven their personal corruption is allowed with no ability by anyone to stop it. they control their own behavior. They are purposely SLOW WALKING the clear-cut cases where it is so one sided a first-year law student would cringe over the cases they decided to hear. So we have a President caught multiple times with multiple witnesses and culprits trying to overthrow this government. The supreme court thinks it should be left to the voter to decide. They are making sure the voter gets to decide and they know Trump has a damn good chance of winning. Same with all the redrawn RED STATE MAPS.
I don't know which branch of government is more corrupt, dismantling their own institutions more thoroughly. I thought Trump was the easy winner but since he failed to overthrow the government the GOP in all levels of government is doing it for him and now it is crystal clear the Supreme Court is the clear winner. Set for life to make ruling that are so harmful it will destroy our Republic just on its own without the help of the other 2 branches.
It is so insidious, so mind boggling evil I myself couldn't have imagined such an outcome. But we ignore the complete dismantling of our republic. it is happening daily, and we just pretend it has no lasting consequence. This nation is already a dead carcass. It hasn't yet started to decompose but the awful smell will soon follow.
Do you really think this political destruction has no bearing on your lives? on the stock market? On our very survival? I am as sure of the outcome TODAY as I ever was. it is my worst-case scenario, and it no longer needs to be addressed. it is now a FACT!
Like all evil, greed, selfishness, ignorance and hubris will play out to completion. I expect that expression will be seen in the stock market. We are in the orgasmic stage where nothing other than our own personal pleasures will be seen felt and heard. If this truly is a release of pure emotions in exquisite bliss, we would be oblivious to the world around us till we are spent.
I MUST conclude we surge ever higher past my first target of June and onto August or early September. IF we reach this target the 3 months after that peak, October, November, December should be HUGE. I mean a really big surge especially if TRUMP wins. BUT this is pure speculation based on current data and political environment. I reserve the right to change my mond and reevaluate timing at a later date. It sure feels right today!
I have 2 possible Fibonacci sequences ahead. This can determine either a 3-month decent drop or the start of a really nasty super cycle downturn.
If it is only a 3 month drop it should start around the end of August 2024 and finish at end of November. If we start the drop earlier in late June it would possibly signal a truncated final super cycle bull has ended and the multi-decade long plunge to have started.
I base this on Fibonacci number and where I started is arbitrary at the last major low in October. 2022. Since we can't determine what lows or highs constituted the start of a new long-term reversal TILL we trace it in hindsight, I base my assumption on the dangerous times we are facing today indicating a near ending phase.
My urge to get to the crash stage has aways gotten me in trouble. I must "see" the alternative paths and give them credence.
Scenario ONE: A "normal" corrective phase at end of August thru end of November makes perfect sense since the angst of an election result will be over.
Scenario TWO: A more permanent top in 2024 has to start at end of June and MUST have a crash component in the slide.
I don't have a clue which is which but logically a "normal;" 3 month drop in election timeframe makes more sense and with it no crash but extended into 2025 instead.
Trump's new hush-money gag order bars statements against witnesses, jurors, and "court staff." It does not bar statements against the judge or his daughter.
This Is YOUR Next President. A man that will use every scheme legal or otherwise to destroy his enemies. He has done so for years, and everyone accepts it and even encourages it. GOP is the Politburo. Supreme Court revisiting Dred Scott on so many issues they feel should match their own ideology dismissing the constitution as a silly distraction. Going so far as to try to impeach Biden with not a sliver of evidence and the ONE MAN that claimed to have such evidence was charged with LYING.
Total disconnect with political reality as the economy hums along. The new moral code today is anything that allows me to vent my frustration and paranoia. Anything that makes me feel good about my own personal life regardless of harm it does others. THE NEW MORAL CODE is an old worn but profitable strategy. Putin and Hitler are just 2 of many that know how to play this game. Trump has used their speeches and inuendo ramifications for his deeds we no longer feel shame or point it out as unacceptable.
This market is careening upward and once it reaches the peak it will have more than enough power to plunge over that cliff without slowing down. I anticipate most actively involved investors and fund managers will see the cartoon like plunge and expect a mid-air halt. If the Pandemic allowed for that mid-air halt to happen for 5 weeks, I think we will have plenty of time to see and prepare for the next levitation act.
In other words, folks if TRUMP can capture the hearts and minds of spoiled lazy ignorant fools manipulating their fears and prejudices so easily it stands to reason a blowoff stock market will achieve the same result. Suspended in mid-air till someone shouts out the inevitable plunge is here.
PUMP THIS SUCKER UP! Which comes first the crash or total anarchy from the White House? Dunno but they both have an inevitable conclusion whether it happens in sync or not.
*** Nostradamus revealed quadrant that I managed to decipher (lol) declared 2025 as the year of the Four Horseman and Anti-Christ leading us into rapture. ***
We have had only a 4 day drop consecutively once since 10/23. That resulted on a shallow but technical wave down. Today has to close higher or it might be another distinct wave down. Seems likely it is NOT and therefore a continued drive higher near term is assured. The all-important core PCE price index YoY tomorrow. We had a double top in early 22 and 23 and has since steadily dropped. From 5 percent to 2.8 percent. This is the REAL REASON the market keeps driving higher. And rightly so. Disinflation keeps borrowing costs low and payment against those loans profitable for all. We would need a multi month drive higher and in a decidedly breakout fashion for this market to accept such a long-term change in inflation.
Without a spike up and a following hold to that spike we should stay in this extraordinary bull mode. Before the open tomorrow we get a clue if there is a possible change to the long trend down. It is THE number ONE data point the street looks to.
TRUMP leading all POLLS! The supreme court has made sure that TRUMP and TRUMP alone can behave like a despot with the full sanction of the Stupreme Court! It boggles the mind how every path that trump takes leads to the presidency. The 7-week delay to determine if Trump has KING Power seems to be settled. I expect a split decision and it might even go TRUMPOS way. BUT that's a side issue since the decision to KEEP trump on the ticket and delay any criminal proceedings guarantees his crowning. AS I HAVE STATED FOR A VERY LONG TIME.
Once he gets the merger approved, he stands to make 3 BILLION dollars. This at a time when the whole US stock market is humming along with no cares in the world. they heard the FED state 2 rate cuts this year and only a big spike in inflation would stop their thought process. Friday the all-important PCE index. I expect another surprise reading on the upside that once again gets ignored. If i am correct we are at a very strong reversal point for BOND YIELDS.
When the market implodes is anyone's guess. BUT it should NOT go much beyond Trumps first few edicts as President.
Trump expected to make billions on his truth social public offering. The man can’t be affected by anything the justice department does. But that will take time to achieve. Monday is d day for 600 million due.
Market news is continuing to confirm inflation is rising. But the Fed promised a rate cut this year. That should hold the cheering pompom investors for now.
Trump expected to make billions on his truth social public offering. The man can’t be affected by anything the justice department does. But that will take time to achieve. Monday is d day for 600 million due.
Market news is continuing to confirm inflation is rising. But the Fed promised a rate cut this year. That should hold the cheering pompom investors for now.
WE do NOT have to wait very long to see the long reach of TRUMP. The major battle has begun and the deadline for the victory or defeat is this coming MONDAY!
We either have another big win for TRUMP and dictatorship or NY wins the first major battle. Will any judge or ruling PREVENT NY from selling off trump property to secure the 600 million settlements?
Will NY actually seize Trump property by end of day on MONDAY! Will the man set out to destroy NY the day he takes office? The most unhinged sadistic bastard to rule a nation this powerful has not yet been seen. A preliminary test run was during his first term in office. this next one will be comparing conventional bomb to the hydrogen bomb. NY, immigrants, same sex marriages, gays, blacks, and JEWS will be put on the chopping block in his first act as president. The dismantling of our republic will be completed on his first act as president. HISTORIC MOMENT!
The MONDAY night actions by either TRUMP or NY prosecutors will tell me just how quickly TRUMP tramples and stomps out our Republic.
BIGGEST DAY IN OUR HISTORY will be ignored. 03/25/24 will live in infamy! I am deadly serious. If NY wins this battle the destructive powers of TRUMP will wipe NY off the face of the earth at the start of 2025. This assumes he is standing as the victor. ONLY an act of GOD can stop him IMO.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/supreme-court-grants-gov-greg-abbott-s-wish-to-turn-texas-into-a-far-right-dictatorship/ar-BB1khb16?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=84eb0a25d1b44d11a0bd68dcd79b7a7b&ei=16
The most radical of the three branches is the Stupreme Court. It has "current" power undreamed of by Trump or the legislature. With a signing of a law they have absolute control over our lives. They abandon all amendments to twist their ruling. Same sex, Gays, gun control, immigration, state POWER only if the agenda is agreeable to their bias. Imagine allowing Trump to stay on the ballot as a clear insurrectionist because STATES don't have the right to deny him but states can decide on rape, incest, abortion, gay rights, immigration? WOWEEEEEEt
Just like a Pandemic you don't need to be an expert in that science to understand fundamental laws. The above the law Stupreme Court can contradict their own arguments depending on the subject matter and the dismantled Republic rejoices.
ALL THIS IS HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME! The most destructive forces on or off this earth is as if a concerted all front war on GOOD has been fought. It is happening in an environment of numbed acceptance or relief. No one, absolutely no one can look one step further and be shocked by the conclusions. Like having a Pandemic for 5 weeks with a shrug of the head refusing to accept reality till AFTER it hit. You would think something like that, a really big embarrassing mistake would be realized and rectified.
A scenario so frightening even "I" find it hard to fathom. TRUMP will likely LOSE any delay in paying off his outstanding penalty of 600 MILLION. It is estimated he already has 200 million of loans against his current property. IF the MARCH deadline stays intact for placing a bond against the settlement amount, he will have his property seized and sold. If, however, everything falls his way, as the other cases have proven to be true, he will stall, long enough to reverse those penalties once he becomes president.
Imagine a bankrupt president with many of his property seized and his company in shambles as he accepts his inauguration. This at a time when the economic prospects for huge profits have never been greater. This at a time when debt by individuals and governments are so large they become ignored thru sheer longevity. Like Madof's Ponzi scheme that lasted decades. Happy times for those creditors till the end came suddenly.
I am not an economist, or financial guru. Just as I wasn't a scientist and virus expert to determine a Pandemic was bad, really bad for everyone. We are leaping into the jaws of a lion hoping he had his fill of food.
US stocks rise on Fed rate cut cheer; "soft landing" hopes rise - HEADLINE NEWS
If the FED was determined to create a massive bubble of biblical proportions this current market is obliging. The trajectory or angle of ascent is straight up.
Now perhaps I read the data wrong? Surely the fed has figured out that inflation is dead with no chance of resurfacing. I mean the data tells them that?
Silly me, I mentioned a year ago that the strength of the economy was way too strong to allow rate cuts, but the FED dangled them for a full year now and has to put up or shut up. They just PROMISED 2 rate cuts this year! Thier confidence is astonishing. They MUST know the immediate future and it points to a soft landing with no inflation. Perhaps the PPI of .6 last month was a normal adjustment for the weaker ones in the past? Perhaps the China affect from their government stimulus will not be enough to offset the supply. Perhaps the economy of today has created a permanent deflation environment.
When do i hear a NEW NEW Paradigm. The giddy froth in the market is exactly matched by the political numbness and acceptance of the lunatic 2 term president.
BOTH seem pleased. and downright ecstatic over the prospects of regaining this country's wealth by reversing a hundred years of gains by outsiders. I can't wait for the first official act by TRUMP! He will deport MILLIONS of illegals as his storm troopers pull them out of alleyways and farms and soup kitchens. His wrath will be mighty against his enemies. He will jail and prosecute members of congress, state officials, and use the GOP power to reverse decisions on penalties against Trump and his business.
Have YOU noticed that all the BIG cases have stopped dead cold? NO? So let me ask the geniuses that are voting for the monster. If YOU were him and facing jail time and financial ruin what would YOU do as President? Would you make sure YOU never leave that office? Would you use the power of GOD to punish those that dared to go after him? Would you turn the 3 branch system into a dictatorial mechanism? I mean this fate is a GUARANTEE! More so than a Pandemic hitting US soil. I mean slam dunk 100 percent full proof guarantee.
I will be laughing my head off as the GOP sink deeper into treason as Trump aligns with Putin to DESTROY the alliance and create a police state like Russia's. Think this mad talk don't ya. Well all I know is every time I expect destruction to be unleashed on us, we get a magnitude of a nuclear bomb far exceeding my worst case scenario.
AND we are running into this wall at full speed and with free will! IT also means this stock market might actually surge thru the 2024 calendar year. It would be apropos for what awaits us. As sure as i am of our Republics demise, I am just as sure the economy plunges into the darkest black hole never to see the light of day again. I am talking about the end of our market cycle where a full generation will be brought up in a post apocalypse economic environment. Will that spill into a physical demise as well? My guess is yes. The move this year could exceed anything ever seen before or after. It could be the mother of all excesses. The P/E ratio just might exceed 40 before we crash. That would require a soft landing, rate cuts and GDP at 4%. Imagine a scenario where the best economic growth and prosperity happens at the exact moment we tun over our Republic to a dictator.
I myself HOPE and PRAY we do see 2024 Stock Marlet achieve record breaking heights in all categories. The mother and father of all blow off tops. I can dream, can't I?
FED just put themselves in a huge corner. They declared TWO rate cuts should be seen this year. This on current data that had inflation spike, jobs wages, manufacturing and even housing doing well. I wonder why they are that sure or are they just keeping the greed and insane valuations up for the election?
All I know is the CPI and PPI was a big surprise and dismissed as soon as it came out. Straight up it is. JULY is my first possible blowoff drop. Bottom line: Profits are not sustainable unless we pump this economy with more spending and debt. Only way is thru rate cuts. P/E ratios only seen in recent blowoff periods. 28 and rising at a fast clip. I suspect we hit 34 before we drop hard and long.
Fed mumbling was heard as mostly positive. They actually expect a 75 basis point drop this year. But listening to his speech inflation is still too high and only AFTER data shows a slowdown will they cut. Gee this speech can be heard a year ago. I guess the Huge spike in the PPI was a one off and the higher CPI also an anomaly.
Cross your finger gets. Market is as always hearing what it wants to.
Time is running out. All data going forward that disputes a rate cut will b amplified. We shall see.
Fed mumbling was heard as mostly positive. They actually expect a 75 basis point drop this year. But listening to his speech inflation is still too high and only AFTER data shows a slowdown will they cut. Gee this speech can be heard a year ago. I guess the Huge spike in the PPI was a one off and the higher CPI also an anomaly.
Cross your finger gets. Market is as always hearing what it wants to.
Time is running out. All data going forward that disputes a rate cut will b amplified. We shall see.
RAPE, HUSH MONEY, TAX FRAUD - NY NY NY. Total financial losses over 600 MILLION dollars and counting!
When the Stupreme Court gave Trump special privileges to run for president as an insurrectionist they abolished the constitution effectiveness as surely as if they declared all 27 amendments only applies to certain people in certain circumstances. Get this, since this one amendment can ONLY be issued by the political system it stands to reason ALL amendments can be interpreted by the political party's affiliation in congress.
Now after the radical Supreme Court, GOP, and president get total control how will NY STATE survive? I can GUARANTEE all verdicts against TRUMP in NY will be overturned by CONGRESS! If not then the president alone will send federal justices and troops to make sure he is granted total immunity and rescind the verdict. There is NO WAY TRUMP loses 600 million without equal or greater compensation.
Regardless of how he does it the end result will be a total unconscionable revenge program against NY. When the second most powerful institute, Stupreme Court, finally is forced to decide AGAINST Trump he will flex his muscles and declare them insignificant and powerless to enforce their rulings.
The day the Stupreme Court gets slapped down as a paper tiger is the day I cheer. I am looking forward to it. The gall of them to think they can control TRUMP!
It will align with the destruction of Ukraine, alliance with Putin, break from allies and the start of the end of life as we know it. It will rapidly fall into federal, state, local governmental chaos. Elections will be suspended and challenged. Laws will make sure the GOP controlled regions side with their wishes and desires.
The numbed lazy uneducated bigoted public will do what they do best, absolutely nothing. On both side of the equation, they will either cheer or complain. The Democratic Party will cling onto their small power structure till they are also forced to resign. No battle will be fought, no violence just acceptance. A coup without bloodshed. We have reached this stage of the overthrow of our republic with a whimper and TV coverage as a sideline bystander not wanting to get involved or take sides. They report such outrageous actions. and dismantling of our republic with monotone delivery not daring to voice the obvious.
In other words, as I have stated for a very long time, WE THE PEOPLE DESERVE and ENCOURAGE our own surrender of life, liberty and pursuit of happiness.
We go quietly into the night.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/supreme-court-opens-new-frontier-for-insurrection-claims-that-could-target-state-and-local-officials/ar-BB1kbfse?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4db1dead076b435cb27b06371a46b155&ei=13
INSANE!!!!!!!! Everyone but TRUMP can be disqualified from serving in state and local elections? This was the solution the STUPREME COURT came to?
The highest most powerful position in the WORLD can be held by an insurrectionist. If this isn't the smooth hand of the devil at work here, I don't know what is.
The ONLY cases against TRUMP that will be settled is in New York! He must liquidate his holdings in order to secure a bond. ONCE TRUMP takes office again can you imagine the wrath he will place on New York State and City?
So Purple and Blue controlled municipalities can refuse an insurrectionist to be on the ballot as the RED ones encourage those same people to run? The STUPREME COURT is indeed the most destructive branch of government ever to pass edicts. It solidifies the Civil War mentality, and the divide will be so much greater. Politicians that support TRUMP will allow insurrectionist to place their rubber stamp on congress. The STUPREME COURT has now determined a constitutional LAW can be interpreted by politicians.
The market is on auto pilot with clear skies ahead! The economy is doing so good that all analysts and fund managers are downright giddy. They also find excuses to believe that a rate cut is happening this year. No they see it in FIRST HALF of 2024. Astonishing how the mind can make a slight adjustment to include even a healthy housing market with rate cuts. THIS FED would never ever lower rates without a real recession already here.
The last piece to the economic strength is HOUSING, a big-ticket item. It is recovering very nicely. Earnings however has baked in multiple rate cuts this year. With China finally getting its act together and the PPI finally spiking higher we have a prescription for an early 70's style rebound in inflation.
The inflation data for next month will set the stage for an extended rally or one that is cut short and destined for a dramatic drop in early July. I have no idea how inflation behaves in the coming months but do know it certainly will NOT allow the FED to LOWER RATES! The VIX is now at 14 again so complacency is in the extreme realm. Like all past blow off tops this one should be the same. You can guess when the 90 degree move up occurs and for how long but the pattern seems pretty darn clear. We either get a double top formation lasting a few months or a spike move followed by no preparation for a starling crash. The latter is rare and should require some external data or event that triggers such a mass exodus.
So for now July is the next likely trigger point. If we survive that month intact October becomes an odds-on favorite seasonality month to experience a generational crash. This is similar to the dot.com froth, Pandemic dismissal. AI, Bitcoin, protectionist legislation against China reminds me of a nation that believes they have all the cards and doesn't have to share or be worried about future consequences.
All this as TRUMP the preemptive favorite to win the next election has no money to secure a bond and will likely lose the Hush Money case before election. This as his Hitleresque style pledge becomes more exposed by himself with favorable outcomes. Seems finally the news agencies and Democratic Party are resigned to the fact that FACTS, IMMORAL ILLEGAL behavior has no bearing on the next election. the PUSSY MAGNET lover of ruthless dictators and desire to side with the evil axis seems to have no one consciously seeing any future danger for themselves. It is as if a Pandemic is a concept far removed for our soil and will remain so. We gladly gleefully jump over a thousand-foot cliff and expect the laws of physics to revert to a road runner comic strip.
In other words, folks, how in the world do we not see this coming? Like the 12-year reign of HITLER the actions and promises by Hitler on day one was well known and the ability to deceive ourselves for so long is testament to our long-twisted road of pure luck that we survived this long. The odds of this next mistake allowing us to beat the odds is very slim and almost non-existent.
What a perverse story line us humans have written into history. It is almost as if by design, divine providence. Just when we are on the brink of a revolutionary leap in science and knowledge our primitive emotional baggage will manage to destroy us as we approach God-like powers. The very thought of TRUMP as the front runner has to seal our fate regardless of the outcome. He now represents an ideology that people crave, and it requires no specific person to carry it forward. The whole GOP on all government levels have already figured this out. Banana Republics are not equipped to rule the world and struggle to rule themselves. This is now who we are. ENJOY the moment!
IF we are just finishing up wave 3 of 5 from 10/27 we should have a clear timeline for the final 5th wave. Fist off this move is day 3 and in the recent past we ONLY had a 4 day drop as the corrective wave. That places MONDAY as the final low and a 2-to-2.5-month drive for final 5th wave.
IF MONDAY is the low 3/18 to 5/18 should easily be seen as the 5th wave up. I suspect another 2 weeks after that seals the fate. 6/1 onward should start the drop.
That implies the next 2 months should show heightened inflation without overt spikes. For my money ONLY inflation should cause the next dramatic drop. Disinflation created the last 40-year bubble as we are addicted to its process. If you want to know why I see a bubble here it is in the universal understanding that disinflation is here to stay and so is accumulated debt and easy borrowing. Like knowing a Pandemic is here and assuming it doesn't affect the USA. OR that HITLER can supply his country with much needed pride and wealth with a universal dismissal of any bad results from his policies. OR the new paradigm coined by economists in the late 1920's declaring the economic engine is in perfect working order. OR that Trump and the GOP has any lasting effect on profits by their policy making.
Like the TULIP MANIA era we accepted the scenario as plausible and cheered the market on. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, no failsafe backing, only a promise to make you rich beyond your means. Ask anyone what exactly Bitcoin is and why it should replace government currencies and you get mumbo jumbo answers.
IF my scenario does finally come true, and for the record it has not, we should see a breakdown in early to mid-June and by July the real drop starts.
If my scenario plays out, we should see 10 year note from 4.2% to over 7%. Thats HUGE! Dollar around 103 to 110. From Trump as the front runner to climate change that needs no drastic fixes and sacrifice to a new paradigm where inflation has been defeated to a Pandemic that was no big deal till it actually killed ONE person on our soil. We have the greatest ability to deceive ourselves and do so in mass and completely.
For the very same reason "I" gave a year ago that stated this economy will plow thru the spike rate hikes and adjust. Everyone was sure it would create a recession and therefore the FED was late in lowering rates. Now that they have been completely wrong, they STILL can't understand why. Simple. The consumer has never been in control as they have been these past 2 years. They dictate and demand higher perks and wages. The cycle has been slow to develop but once it has WATCH OUT! It completes the cycle of ever higher inflation as costs rise to compensate for wage and perk growth. All the street sees is the ONE-SIDED benefit. Sustained spending with no recession in sight.
China has been a basket case till now. It looks as if they are about to break out form their self-inflicted mess. Once their consumer starts spending the INFLATION FACTOR surges.
Not had more than 4 days drop since October. This is day 3. Bitcoin is consolidating and once it breaks out again it should be hitting the target of 80,452.
Judge Cannon playing her tricks again and the likelihood of a trial with her is nil.
PPI was really bad considering it is the ONLY way long lasting Inflation can occur. Such a spike was unexpected and ignored as just a one off. If we have the same result in April the start of the breakdown in this market begins. I find it unreal that there is no one that even contemplates inflation roaring back. In fact their theories and strong assumptions declare it is an impossibility.
Watch this sucker over next few months when reality smacks their hubris complacency.
Which world do we live in? Bitcoin down 4 percent today on HOT INFLATION? Stocks however barely budged. But the news headlines remain the same? Stock market today: "US stocks tumble as bond yields jump after hotter-than-expected inflation data".. On a .3% drop? Tumble?
In fact, the HOT reports did not make a dent in stocks. I expected it should and clearly the news makers thought so also. But at the close once again it is in a strong upward channel.
When will we see 80,452 target in BITCOIN? Will it be soon or perhaps another consolidation at these levels? Let me spell out real trouble and real inflation building data. The PPI is THE most important data point to follow. It is the base for inflation to grow from. Hard to sustain inflation if the core material costs don't also rise.
CHINA for FIRST time in 6 months CPI increased by .6% and exports rose. The KEY to sustained INFLATION and bad news for us. Thier deflation actually helped keep inflation here relatively low. That should be reversing, and the US data should continue to surprise on the upside.
The new culture of American Business has taken the queue from Trump and by extension the Legislative Branch and Judicial Branch. Both the GOP and Supreme Court has gone rogue. Ruling by local, state, federal judges are now interpreting the constitution to fit their extreme bias. Local, state, federal legislature are using trump tactics to go after anyone that doesn't toe the line on their party policies. That includes changing legislation to fire them, intimidate them, and even pass laws that overstep their authority to "control" the legal process.
Mind boggling that the antics and insane cruel policies and actions from one man dictates their behavior. Trump is a true oligarch. His positions, demeanor and actions are being emulated by the 2 other branches of government along with local GOP controlled cities and states. The spread of this evil is like the Pandemic itself. It now includes very wealthy businessmen and prominent individuals. NOTHING stands in their way. Proof is the Trump indictments. They are being stripped away and stalled to allow either Trump or the legislature to overturn these charges. It is an astonishing accomplishment. Not even Putin under the restraint of the constitution could have done any better or accomplished so much in such a short time.
NOW we have a Boeing Whistleblower that spend years in a lawsuit claiming his 32-year tenure was cut short over his demand that management heed his failed inspection status. He started testifying a week ago and NOW mysteriously was found DEAD in a parking lot in his car. They claimed he killed himself! What a coincidence when the facts of their deadly failures were exposed. They want us to believe he killed himself at the exact moment his claims were being exposed. Does that pass the smell test?
But wait. Once TRUMP takes office, he will use executive orders like Big Macs being gobbles up. He will defy congress, and even the Supreme Court with zero consequences. NOW imagine the GOP Senate and House with complete control of the Legislature. If that were to happen everything TRUMP does will be sanctioned by the legislature and the puppet DOJ will sit on their hands and only grab those that dare to challenge Trumps authority. This is Putin's most delicious wet dream. He will be envious of Trump and make sure he takes full advantage. Ukraine is a DEAD NATION once he takes office. The allied alliance is DEAD as well.
Seems we are doing everything possible to follow the antichrist plan. The alarming extremes in politics, citizen freedom to express hate openly and proudly declare their position as a moral one. The Nazis and KKK believed GOD was on their side. The silence by all that have not yet been influenced or swayed by such evil intent. The ability of human nature to keep their most cherished thoughts alive despite glaring realities. This is happening on both spectrums. The evil doers easily justify their position by making it an absolute their cause is based on scripture. The numbed, empathetic or even godly virtuous keep persuading themselves this is a phase that will soon pass. This chapter played out in the 1940's. Now add AI, extremely deadly military arsenal, speed and efficiency in releasing the dogs of hell, and sanitized detachment war can have on individuals as we play a real live video game costing millions of lives with total emotional detachment.
For now, it is nice to live in such a bubble. The spike in P/E ratio is already the third highest in history where the other two resulted in extreme drops. The long-standing theme that this economy MUST be allowed to lower rates by keep deferring that day of reconning without any ramification on stock market spike. The ability of economists to see only positive results as if a tax accountant reviews only the profits without analyzing the mounting negative balance sheet trend. The political arena today has surpassed anything we ever experienced in the past including the Civil War and KKK surge at the turn of the century and even the Commie menace of the 50s'. I can state this as absolute without having personally experience them because of a simple fact. TODAY WE HAVE INSTANTANIOUS verification of facts thru video, audio, print. We see hear witness immoral illegal behavior real time. We as quicky ignore or find excuses for them. No longer can the Nazi regime of a decade be simply excused away by the citizens with a smug remark "we never knew the truth". We "KNOW" and cheer its policies. The dismissal of a world devastation thru environmental neglect has been going on the longest. Once again, we know with certainly the future. We are numbed to its accelerated destructive nature because it is the most expedient path. The AI revolution can ONLY result in the biggest world order change in history. Unlike all the other advances this one will displace workers and not from one job position into another but across the board reshaping the world where we will no longer have a workforce or one that has shrunken 1,000-fold. This is NOT a prediction but rather a known fact.
All aspects of our lives are speeding thru a massive shift in sync. By the time we have discovered the aging process, physics behind nature, how the universe is formed, we will be in a tumultuous period where our very survival on the moral and physical level will be tested. The test results are already in.
I can be 100 percent wrong in 100 percent of the calls on market behavior but at the same time be 100% right on the outcome. Guessing when a volcano explodes is not the same thing as knowing it will explode. As in a volcano I hope my timing is off by a generation or two.
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