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Respectfully I disagree. I used to respect jbog as well but he's since turned into clown who spins everything about RVNC as bearish. See, he told you himself. He was burned by the stock and now he hates the company. I think that's juvenile and emotional and not how a seasoned investor aspires to behave. Time will tell if he was right or just misguided.
Ed, your need to stop with the insults, whether to jbog or anyone else. As far as jbog, he is a valued poster and he has been more right about RVNC than I have been. Jbog and I just disagree on future RVNC prospects. That is what makes a market.
"now's a great time to think about it."
Yes it is. I guess you're the buy-high and sell-low type. As mad as you are now I bet you're going to be really furious if and when RVNC recovers without you. So long.
You're pathetic jbog. Obviously that was wrong and I did buy some shares on the way down, but it's de minimis compared to the huge gains I've already realized over the years. Focus on this part of my message:
$10? Jbog, I sold a bunch of shares at $37 last year. I have made a huge amount of money on RVNC since I first owned it in 2016. Revance has been a huge money maker for those who have traded it at the right time. Evolus? Not so much. Yes I still own shares that are underwater, but it's house money. I have a negative trade-adjusted cost basis. Most people here are more concerned with whether the current share price represents a buying opportunity for future gains than whether or not they should have done something differently in the past. You were clearly burned by RVNC and now you've turned into a right RVNCQ clown who spins everything as bearish. If you're so negative why don't you short it?
Eddy
I assume you're a current revance stock owner. That says it all.
At least I was smart enough to dump at $10 If you can't do the math that wad 65% ago. LOLOL
I bet this WorstLuck person (who btw is the only person on this site I have muted) was buying ZM and DOCU in 2020 because "the market must be right." 😂
Jbog has become a complete clown.
Evolus licenses a toxin. They have no therapeutic program. They launched years before Daxxify. To compare expenses now is completely disingenuous. It's true Revance has overspent but they can and will cut expenses. If 3 years from now the situation hasn't changed then you will have been right—I doubt it.
Meanwhile, Daxxify is starting to blow up on social media.
Most didn’t realize even if daxxify ended up just with 10% market share in next few years, the return will still be more than okay.
Why don’t you transfer those shares from your IRA to your taxable account(s) if you need ST or LT capital losses to offset ST or LT capital gains?
Unfortunately, sometimes, we have to be bet against the market the win big. Certainly and know it all is a very pricy thing
The surprise to me is how fast and deep the drop has been after the 100mm secondary... I would think the book runner and the subscribers did their due diligence... and usually, stocks go up or at least stabilize after secondary...
In that hypothetical scenario, I would have been concerned that somebody knew something I didn't.
>> If I didn’t have first-hand knowledge of how much better Daxxify is, I would be concerned about my investment.
Concern because the share price keep dropping?
NYT article: Market flooded with fake Botox
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/well/live/counterfeit-botox-risks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU0.5syV.RaMIYrMIOJG_&smid=url-share
Vin
The previous CGEM post on this board was two years ago (#msg-168836274), so it looks like the answer to your question is no.
Today’s pop puts CGEM above its 2021 IPO price of $21 (#msg-160779532).
Anyone here following CGEM?. It is up close to 30% today, apparently on the back of this data.
Another one $CGEM
— Professor Oak (@Prof_Oak_) April 26, 2024
2 cycles of low dose blina in N=6 refractory RA. Minor fever. Robust B cell depletion. 50% red. in relevant auto-abs. Avg. 2.5pt DAS28 response, functionally achieving remission. Most pts. then put on maintenance abatacept, so little insight into durability https://t.co/DjH3ouJeAB
Closed ABOS, AVXL and CGTX. They may not have been the right ones to select for their Alzheimer's research and results. Still holding ANVS.
RANI for GLP1 adm. Oral vs injection... Do the thinking
FDA approves PFE’s Beqvez gene-therapy for hemophilia-B:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425269649/en
The US list price of $3.5M is the same as CSL’s Hemgenix (#msg-170520619).
p.s. Benveq should not be confused with PFE's Marstacimab for hemophilia A and hemophilia B (#msg-172016370), which is an antibody, not a gene therapy.
ABBV reports 1Q24 results—raises 2024 guidance:
https://news.abbvie.com/2024-04-26-AbbVie-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results
New 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance $11.13-11.33, up from the prior guidance of $11.05-11.25 three months ago. The new guidance includes an ($0.08) hit from IPR&D occurring in 1Q24, which was not in the prior full-year 2024 guidance.
The midpoint of the new range ($11.23) represents 1% YoY growth from the actual $11.11 in 2023. The lack of robust YoY growth is due, in large part, to the continued uptake of Humira biosimilars in the US market and to flat Botox sales as ABBV loses some market share.
1Q24 worldwide Botox sales=$1.381B, -7% QoQ*, flat YoY
https://news.abbvie.com/2024-04-26-AbbVie-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results
• US therapeutic: $611M (-6% QoQ, +4% YoY)
• US cosmetic: $389M (-14% QoQ*, -5% YoY)
--
US total: $1.00B (61% therapeutic; 39% cosmetic) was 72% of worldwide total
• Ex-US therapeutic: $137M (+8% QoQ, +5% YoY)
• Ex-US cosmetic: $244M (-8% QoQ*, -3% YoY)
--
Ex-US total: $381M (36% therapeutic; 64% cosmetic) was 28z% of worldwide total.
*Botulinum-toxin sales for cosmetic indications are seasonally stronger during the second and fourth calendar quarters than the first and third calendar quarters.
Dew: FYI
I see that Biotech Jim added to his apparently long position in $VKTX yesterday....
Vin
2023 had the big fintech write down.
The 1st quarter had a estimate of ($ 0.59) 3 months ago, ($ 0.61) 2 months ago and now is at ($ 0.75) . Wrong way
Biowatch
RVNC hits $3.28. Someone knows something I don’t, or perhaps I’m ignoring the obvious.
Great, it will prove itself in the long term, but it seems to be fading away into the twilight.
Sorry Dew, I’ve never used Botox so don’t have your experience.
Hate to be the curmudgeon, but this, aside from CD, is a cosmetic surgery company, and that market can be fickle.
———
It hit $3.23 today if you believe Yahoo Finance, but perhaps some people covered their short sales, bringing it back up.
This unorthodox anti-obesity candidate may not warrant inclusion in your table, but here it is anyhow:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/25/2869629/0/en/Aphaia-Pharma-Provides-Enrollment-and-Protocol-Update-for-Phase-2-Trial-in-Individuals-with-Obesity.html
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05385978
Aphaia Pharma is private.
Thanks, dewo—much appreciated!
I was able to listen midway and the audio was pretty bad, but the slides are up and could be interesting
They do list the profile of their candidate and it has high potency, selectivity and potential for QD dosing. The latter may differentiate from THRD bc at least their earlier candidate was BID. If this is a drug given chronically this could be important (I don't really know if companies are thinking for flares only or chronic for prophylaxis)
clearly this is going to be an important 3rd company with an oral kit inhibitor in the space. There are a lot of potential clinical avenues to pursue so there could be room for more than one drug here but I think this is one where ENTA would want to partner up early to move into multiple indications quickly assuming all the oral drugs end up progressing - it could be that one carves out an indication prior to another depending on development path
I did find the slide of mast cell expression in various tissues somewhat interesting bc one area of differentiation could be how well you hit a specific tissue - ENTA seems to have been able to tune other molecules to hit certain tissues and spare others so if they can get good skin uptake for urticaria, or good GI uptake for eosiniphilic esophagitis that could be a way to set apart from the competition
looks like BPMC is going to file this Q and enter clinic later this year so a few months behind THRD and then ENTA is going to be a few months behind BPMC
What was notable by omission in the slides was any preclinical liver related tox-avoidance. This is what sidetracked THRD's first candidate, and ENTA does mention it iin their slide deck "no GSH adducts in human liver microsome incubation", THRD certainly talks about it - perahps this was brought up during Q&A in this talk but that seems perhaps notable by omission although I give the benefit of the doubt to BPMC given they have success in the kit arena already with non-wild type inhibitors
Keytruda sold_at_a $28B(!) annualized_rate_in 1Q24, +24% YoY in_constant_currency:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425889273/en
It’s going to be tough for MRK to replace this revenue when Keytruda goes off-patent in 2028, although a subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda could blunt some of the erosion.
Private company developing AMD tri-specific that_hits VEGF-A/VEGF-C/Ang-2:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/revopsis-secures-16-5-million-seed-funding-to-advance-first-in-class-tri-specific-therapy-for-neovascular-amd-treatment-302127081.html
The short answer to your questions is yes, but “phase-2 and “phase-2b” are not precisely defined terms—i.e. the devil is in the details.
DewD, is there any precedent of clinical trials proceeding directly to phase-3 without running a phase-2b, especially in the GLP-1 field? TIA.
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