>>> US secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine


BBC

4-25-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-secretly-sent-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/ar-AA1nBlTl?cvid=6b93c10a85934001d09ebb1984bad317&ei=58


Ukraine has begun defending territory with long-range ballistic missiles secretly provided by the United States, US officials have confirmed.

The weapons were part of a $300m ($240m) aid package that was approved by US President Joe Biden in March, and arrived this month.

They have already been used at least once to strike Russian targets in occupied Crimea, US media report.

It is not clear how many of the weapons have been sent to Ukraine.

The US had previously supplied Ukraine with a mid-range version of the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) but had been reluctant to send anything more powerful, partly over concerns about compromising US military readiness.

However, Mr Biden is said to have secretly given the green light to send the long-range system - which can fire missiles distances of up to 300km (186 miles) - in February.

"I can confirm that the United States provided Ukraine with long-range ATACMS at the president's direct direction," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said.

He added that the US "did not announce this at the onset in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request".

The longer-range missiles were used for the first time last week to strike a Russian airfield in occupied Crimea, Reuters quoted an unnamed US official as saying.

And the new missiles were also used in an attack on Russian troops in the in the port city of Berdiansk overnight on Tuesday, the New York Times reported.

Kyiv has recently stepped up its calls for Western assistance as Russia makes steady gains in its invasion.

News of the weapons shipments comes after Mr Biden signed a new $61bn military aid package for Ukraine into law following months of congressional gridlock.

"Now we will do everything to make up for half a year spent in debates and doubts," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the newly approved aid.

"What the Russian occupier was able to do during this time, what Putin is now planning, we must turn against him."

Mr Zelensky recently warned that a full-scale Russian offensive is expected in the coming weeks after Ukraine's loss of the city of Avdiivka during the winter.

Ukrainian officials have previously blamed recent delays in military aid from the US and other Western allies for the loss of lives and territory in the war.

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>>> Analyst reviews Palantir stock price target ahead of earnings


The Street

by Rob Lenihan

Apr 18, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-reviews-palantir-stock-price-231500926.html


In J.R.R. Tolkien's fantasy epic "The Lord of the Rings," a palantir was an indestructible crystal ball used for communication and seeing events in other parts of the world and in the past.

In 2003, Peter Thiel, co-founder and chairman of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) , thought that would be the perfect name for the software platform company.

You won't have to look into any crystal ball to find Palantir, as the company has been creating some serious magic of its own.

While Palantir's sales are largely driven by helping the U.S. government with its counterterrorism efforts, it's also pushed more deeply into managing, interpreting and reporting data for large companies.

The company's revenue has been boosted by surging AI activity after the successful December 2022 launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT, the first large language model AI app to become widely available.

In February, Palantir posted fourth-quarter earnings of 8 cents per share on $608.4 million in sales, beating analysts' call for $602.9 million.

Palantir is scheduled to report earnings next month

Palantir CEO: U.S. commercial performance 'bombastic'

"Obviously, our performance in U.S. commercial is extraordinary; some would say bombastic," Chief Executive Alex Karp told analysts during the company's earnings call. "The numbers that just fly off the screen are the 70% year-on-year growth in Q4."

Citing the company's more than 100 contracts, Karp said "it's almost inconceivable to do that many contracts given the way our product used to be."

"And so, what you see is a convergence of our product being easier to use, an augmentation of its charisma, both driven by developments in AI, large language models, which make the product approachable foundry to the broader market," he said.

Karp said that Palantir was proud to support the U.S. and the U.S. military.

"We are proud to have an operational crucial role in Ukraine," he said. "And I am exceedingly proud that after October 7, within weeks, we are on the ground, and we are involved in operationally crucial, operations in Israel." Oct. 7, 2023, was the day that Hamas invaded Israel, killed 1,200 people and kidnaped more than 200.

Earlier this month, Palantir and Oracle (ORCL) announced a partnership where they would jointly sell cloud and AI services.

As part of the agreement, Palantir said it would move its Foundry workloads to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and make its Gotham and AI Platforms deployable across Oracle's distributed cloud.

Gotham is an intelligence and defense tool used by militaries and counter-terrorism analysts, while Foundry is used for data integration and analysis by corporate clients.

Oracle is one of the top 10 largest cloud providers, and its position as a multidecade leader in data management has given it global reach.

Analyst is investing in Palantir for the future

On April 17, Palantir said that it had been designated as an Awardable vendor for the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office’s Tradewinds Solutions Marketplace.

The Tradewinds Solutions Marketplace is a digital repository of awardable capabilities that can address challenges the Department of Defense faces in the arena of artificial intelligence, machine learning and data analytics.

Palantir’s AI Mission Command Capability and its Predictive Maintenance & Precision Sustainment Suite have been added to the Marketplace and are available to support critical missions across the Defense Department.

Palantir is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 6.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting the company to post profit of 8 cents a share on $615.3 million in revenue. A year earlier Palantir earned 5 cents a share on $525 million of revenue.

TheStreet Pro's Stephen Guilfoyle has a good feeling about Palantir. He has said more than a few times that "this is one name I am investing in for the future generations of my bloodline."

Guilfoyle noted in his April 16 column that for the 12 months ended in late December, operating cash flow printed at $712 million, more than triple the $224 million of 2022, as free cash flow printed at $697 million, up from $184 million in 2022.

"Palantir is quickly becoming a cash-flow beast," he wrote.

The stock has already given up its 21-day exponential moving average and 50-day simple moving average, he said.

“Should the stock lose contact with that pivot, there is a very good chance that it moves to fill the gap created in early February,” he said.

“That would take the shares down to about $18 and test support at the 200-day [simple moving average] as it does. This is where I suspect the real support may lie.”

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>>> Attacks on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant significantly increase accident risk, IAEA head says

Associated Press

4-8-24


https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-drone-a28710a691f3259b5dd6586787838b60


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the U.N.’s atomic watchdog agency on Sunday condemned a drone strike on one of six nuclear reactors at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, saying such attacks “significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident.”

In a statement on the social media platform X, Rafael Mariano Grossi confirmed at least three direct hits against the ZNPP main reactor containment structures took place. “This cannot happen,” he said.

Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack, but the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency didn’t attribute blame. Kyiv officials made no immediate comment.

He said it was the first such attack since November 2022, when he set out five basic principles to avoid a serious nuclear accident with radiological consequences.

Officials at the plant said the site was attacked Sunday by Ukrainian military drones, including a strike on the dome of the plant’s sixth power unit.

According to the plant authorities, there was no critical damage or casualties and radiation levels at the plant were normal after the strikes. Later on Sunday, however, Russian state-owned nuclear agency Rosatom said that three people were wounded in the “unprecedented series of drone attacks,” specifically when a drone hit an area close to the site’s canteen.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Sunday that its experts had been informed of the drone strike and that “such detonation is consistent with IAEA observations.”

In a separate statement, the IAEA confirmed physical impact of drone attacks at the plant, including at one of its six reactors. One casualty was reported, it said.

“Damage at unit 6 has not compromised nuclear safety, but this is a serious incident with potential to undermine integrity of the reactor’s containment system” it added.

The power plant has been caught in the crossfire since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in 2022 and seized the facility shortly after. The IAEA has repeatedly expressed alarm about the nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, amid fears of a potential nuclear catastrophe. Both Ukraine and Russia have regularly accused the other of attacking the plant, which is still close to the front lines.

The plant’s six reactors have been shut down for months, but it still needs power and qualified staff to operate crucial cooling systems and other safety features.

Also on Sunday, three people were killed when their house was hit by a Russian projectile in the front-line town of Huliaipole in Ukraine’s partly occupied southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, regional Gov. Ivan Fedorov said. Later on Sunday, two people were wounded in another shelling of Huliaipole.

Separately, three people were wounded in Russian shelling in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region, according to regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov.

In Russia, a girl died and four other people were wounded when the debris of a downed Ukrainian drone fell on a car carrying a family of six people in Russia’s Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said.

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ABC News - >>> US to Israel: If you strike back at Iran, you'll do it alone <<<

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-israel-strike-back-iran-162024611.html


Finally some sanity prevails. Next, Biden & Co need to ditch their ultra risky Ukraine strategy. Unlike Iran, Russia has 6000 nuclear weapons, including hypersonic missiles, and everything is on a hair trigger. A week ago the lunatic Zelensky bombed the Zaporizhzhia nuclear powerplant (!) Enough of the madness -- > return to Kissinger's détente strategy before we bumble into WW 3 -


>>> Russia test-launches an intercontinental ballistic missile <<<

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-test-launches-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-109172270


>>> Attacks on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant significantly increase accident risk, IAEA head says <<<

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-drone-a28710a691f3259b5dd6586787838b60




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>>> Biden tells Netanyahu US will not participate in counter-strike against Iran


4-14-24

by MJ Lee and Kevin Liptak

CNN


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-tells-netanyahu-us-will-not-participate-in-counter-strike-against-iran/ar-BB1lB3l0?ocid=BingHp01&cvid=3cf388f67cf54cc896fb3bb8d6bd3e14&ei=11


President Joe Biden and senior members of his national security team, seeking to contain the risk of a wider regional war following a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones directed toward Israel, have told their counterparts the US will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, according to US officials familiar with the matter.

In a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late Saturday, Biden sought to frame Israel’s successful interception of the Iranian onslaught as a major victory — with the suggestion that further Israeli response was unnecessary.

Biden told the Israeli prime minister in his phone call that he should consider Saturday a win because Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful and demonstrated Israel’s superior military capability, a senior administration official said.

John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said Sunday the ability to prevent widespread damage was a demonstration of Israel’s “military superiority” and proof that Iran was not the “military power that they claim to be.”

“This was an incredible success, really proving Israel’s military superiority and just as critically, their diplomatic superiority, that they have friends in the region, that they have around the world that are willing to help them,” Kirby told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked his Israeli counterpart, Minister Yoav Gallant, to notify the US ahead of any potential response to the Iranian attack, according to another US official.

Even as American officials stressed to their counterparts that the final decision on how to respond to Iran is up to Israel, Biden has sought to prevent a wider escalation of the conflict.

On Sunday, he planned to convene a meeting of fellow Group of Seven leaders to discuss a “united diplomatic response” — with the emphasis on non-military actions that would limit the prospects of a wider war.

“I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks — sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel,” Biden said in a statement following his conversation with Netanyahu.

Whether Netanyahu takes Biden’s advice remains an open question. The Iranian reprisals came at a moment of deep tension between the men over the war in Gaza. Throughout that conflict, the limits of American influence on Israeli decision-making have been laid bare.

Iran’s decision to fire weapons from its own territory toward Israel significantly ratchets up the long-simmering enmity between the two countries. There will likely be political pressure from inside Israel for some type of response.

Kirby said the attack — the first launched from Iranian soil against Israel — did not necessarily have to constitute the start of a broader regional war.

“We don’t believe it is nor do we believe it has to be,” he told Tapper, noting that the US and Israel both had a good sense of what Iran was planning to do ahead of time.

Gallant warned Sunday that the confrontation with Iran is “not over yet.” The country’s response options are expected to be discussed in detail during a meeting of Israel’s war cabinet meeting.

The Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, warned that Tehran would respond directly if Israel retaliates, saying a “new equation” had been created.

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>>> MDA awards Lockheed $4.1B contract to upgrade battle command system


Defense News

by Jen Judson

4-12-24


https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/04/11/mda-awards-lockheed-41b-contract-to-upgrade-battle-command-system/


The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract worth up to $4.1 billion to continue to field, maintain and upgrade its battle command system, according to an April 11 contract announcement from the Defense Department.

The contract period runs May 1, 2024, through April 30, 2029, with an option to extend it to April 30, 2034.

“This contract will accelerate innovation and continue leading the development of the Command and Control, Battle Management and Communications (C2BMC) system,” Lockheed said in a statement. “Under the new C2BMC-Next scope, the system will be upgraded with the latest 21st Century Security technology for faster, multi-domain coordinated responses to emerging threats.”

The C2BMC system connects a wide variety of systems and radars that together form a global missile defense architecture that protects the homeland as well as U.S. and allied forces worldwide from long-range missile attacks.

Work under the new C2BMC Next contract includes bringing in allies and partners, according to the company.

“Part of C2BMC-Next will be enhancing global integration, exploring possibilities of linking this decades-long proven, operationally-fielded system with allied nations for the first time,” the American firm’s statement noted.

“With C2BMC’s already well-established lines of reliable communication — operating 24/7, 365 days a year in more than 30 locations across the world — the ability to securely collaborate with other countries, across multiple domains, from any location in near real-time will be a game changer for the defense industry,” according to Erika Marshall, Lockheed’s vice president for C4ISR, which stands for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.

The effort under the contract will also include providing C2BMC with technology “that will provide greater Space Domain Awareness,” according to the company’s statement. “Through the connection of sensors, and diffusion of data at a level that hasn’t been done before, this enhancement will allow operators to see a complete view of the battlespace around the world.”

Lockheed has been the prime contractor for C2BMC since 2002. The system, first fielded in 2004, has gone through numerous upgrades, which are spiraled in to adapt to threats. C2BMC was designed to focus from a strategic level down to an operational level.

Recent upgrades since 2021 gave the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, or GMD, system a single, composite, real-time picture of threats by tying into and fusing data from a broader set of sensors to include satellites as well as ground- and ship-based radars, according to the company.

The GMD system is a U.S.-based capability designed to defend the homeland against intercontinental ballistic missile threats, particularly from North Korea and Iran. The system is made up of interceptors buried in the ground at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

MDA also linked C2BMC to the Army’s Integrated Battle Command System, which provides threat pictures down to the tactical level, as part of recent upgrades. IBCS, which reached full-rate production in 2023, is the command-and-control system for the Army’s air and missile defense architecture.

More enhancements included giving C2BMC the capability to pass data back-and-forth with IBCS and other sensors, including space sensors.

The recent upgrades and upcoming development work done under the contract over the next several years will help the system support the Joint All-Domain Command and Control initiative. JADC2 is the Pentagon’s warfighting strategy focused on building an overarching network to fight advanced adversaries like China and Russia. This would require high-bandwidth, resilient communications as well as the ability to share massive amounts of data to help commanders rapidly make decisions.

Lockheed will perform the majority of its work under the new contract in Huntsville, Alabama, and Colorado Springs, Colorado.

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>>> Iranian commandos seize an Israeli-linked container ship near Strait of Hormuz


April 13, 2024

The Associated Press


https://www.npr.org/2024/04/13/1244583830/iran-seizes-container-ship-strait-of-hormuz-israel


DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Commandos from Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard rappelled down from a helicopter onto an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz and seized the vessel Saturday, the latest in a series of attacks between the two countries.

The Middle East had braced for potential Iranian retaliation over a suspected Israeli strike earlier this month on an Iranian consular building in Syria that killed 12 people, including a senior Guard general who once commanded its expeditionary Quds Force there.

The Israeli war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip meanwhile is now 6 months old and is inflaming decades-old tensions across the whole region. With Iranian-backed forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen's Houthi rebels also involved in the fighting, any new attack in the Mideast threatens to escalate that conflict into a wider regional war.

Iran's state-run IRNA said a special forces unit of the Guard's navy carried out the attack on the vessel, the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship associated with London-based Zodiac Maritime.

Biden returns to D.C. a day early to consult national security team on Iran-Israel row

Biden says Iran could soon attack Israel, and warns, 'Don't'

Zodiac Maritime is part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer's Zodiac Group. Zodiac declined to comment and referred questions to MSC. Geneva-based MSC later acknowledged the seizure and said 25 crew had been aboard the vessel.

"We are working closely with the relevant authorities to ensure their wellbeing, and safe return of the vessel," MSC said.

An Indian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to brief to journalists, said 17 of the crew were Indians.

IRNA said the Guard would take the vessel into Iranian territorial waters.

Earlier, a Middle East defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, shared a video of the attack with The Associated Press. In it, the Iranian commandos are seen rappelling down onto a stack of containers sitting on the deck of the vessel.

A crew member on the ship can be heard saying: "Don't come out." He then tells his colleagues to go to the ship's bridge as more commandos come down on the deck. One commando can be seen kneeling above the others to provide them potential cover fire.

The video corresponded with known details of the MSC Aries. The helicopter used also appeared to be a Soviet-era Mil Mi-17 helicopter, which both the Guard and the Iranian-backed Houthis of Yemen have used in the past to conduct commando raids on ships.

The British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations described the vessel as being "seized by regional authorities" in the Gulf of Oman off the Emirati port city of Fujairah, without elaborating.

How Iran and Israel became archenemies

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz called on nations to list the Guard as a terrorist organization.

Iran "is a criminal regime that supports Hamas' crimes and is now conducting a pirate operation in violation of international law," Katz said.

Iran since 2019 has engaged a series of ship seizures and attacks on vessels have been attributed to it amid ongoing tensions with the West over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.

Since November, Iran had dialed back its ship attacks as the Houthis targeted ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Houthi attacks have slowed in recent weeks as the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan ended and the rebels have faced months of U.S.-led airstrikes targeting them.

In previous seizures, Iran has offered initial explanations about its operations to make it seem like the attacks had nothing to do with the wider geopolitical tensions — though later acknowledging as much. In Saturday's attack, however, Iran tellingly offered no explanation for the seizure other than to say the MSC Aries had links to Israel.

Iran has been threatening to act after Israeli strike in Syria

For days, Iranian officials up to and including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been threatening to "slap" Israel for the Syria strike. Western governments have issued warnings to their citizens in the region to be prepared for attacks.

However, Iran in the past largely has avoided directly attacking Israel, despite it carrying out the targeted killing of nuclear scientists and multiple sabotage campaigns against Iran's atomic sites. Iran has, however, targeted Israeli or Jewish-linked sites through proxy forces over the decades.

Earlier this week, Guard Gen. Ali Reza Tangsiri, who oversees Iran's naval forces, criticized the presence of Israelis in the region and in the United Arab Emirates. The UAE reached a diplomatic recognition deal with Israel in 2020, something that long has enraged Tehran.

"We know that bringing Zionists in this point is not merely for economic work," Tangsiri reportedly said. "Now, they are carrying out security and military jobs, indeed. This is a threat, and this should not happen."

The U.S., Israel's main backer, has stood by the country despite growing concerns over Israel's war on Gaza killing more than 33,600 Palestinians and wounding over 76,200 more. Israel's war began after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw some 250 others taken hostage.

On Friday, President Joe Biden warned Iran not to attack Israel and said he felt an Iranian attack on Israel likely would happen "sooner than later."

"We will help defend Israel, and Iran will not succeed," Biden added.

The Gulf of Oman is near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all globally traded oil passes. Fujairah, on the United Arab Emirates' eastern coast, is a main port in the region for ships to take on new oil cargo, pick up supplies or trade out crew.

Since 2019, the waters off Fujairah have seen a series of explosions and hijackings. The U.S. Navy blamed Iran for limpet mine attacks on vessels that damaged tankers. The UAE meanwhile has sought to mend ties with Iran and issued a statement condemning the suspected Israeli attack in Syria.

Meanwhile, Lufthansa Group said on Saturday it had extended the suspension of its flights between Frankfurt and Tehran though Thursday and said that all of its planes would avoid Iranian airspace in that period. The German carrier also said that, until at least Tuesday, flights to and from Amman will be operated as "day flights" so crews can return to Frankfurt without spending a night in the Jordanian capital.

Dutch airline KLM said in a statement Saturday that it will no longer fly over Iran or Israel, but will continue flights to and from Tel Aviv, a destination not currently deemed risky. "Safety has the highest priority," KLM said.

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>>> Iranian attack on Israel expected ‘sooner rather than later’, says Joe Biden

President said US are ‘devoted to the defence of Israel’ as he urged Tehran to show restraint


The Guardian

by Peter Beaumont, Julian Borger and Patrick Wintour

Apr 12, 2024


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/12/france-diplomats-families-iran-israel-travel-warnings


Joe Biden has said he expects an Iranian attack on Israel “sooner rather than later” and issued a last-ditch message to Tehran: “Don’t.”

“We are devoted to the defence of Israel. We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed,” Biden told reporters on Friday.

Earlier the White House national security spokesperson John Kirby warned that the threat of a significant Iranian attack on Israel remains “viable” despite Washington-led efforts, including calls to Tehran from the UK and Germany, to deter a serious escalation in the conflict in the Middle East.

The White House comments came as several countries, including India, France, Poland and Russia, warned their citizens against travel to the region and Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said his country was “prepared to defend [itself] on the ground and in the air, in close cooperation with our partners”.

Later CBS, quoting two unnamed US officials, reported that a substantial missile and drone attack could be launched as early as Friday evening, as a number of countries urgently warned their nationals of the risk of escalating violence in the region, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, convened a security assessment.

Appearing to underline that report, Javad Karimi-Ghodousi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, said: “After punishing the Zionist regime in the coming hours, this villain will understand that henceforth, wherever in the world it attempts to assassinate figures of the resistance front, it will again be punished with Iranian missiles.”

German airline Lufthansa said on Friday its planes would no longer use Iranian airspace and extended its suspension of flights to and from Tehran until Thursday.

Qantas has paused its non-stop flights from Perth to London because the 17-and-a-half-hour flight is possible only by using Iranian airspace.

Iran has threatened reprisals against Israel for a strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria on 1 April, in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guards including two generals were killed, sparking fears that an already volatile climate in the Middle East could quickly spiral further.

Tehran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said on Thursday that Iran felt it had no choice but to respond to the deadly attack on its diplomatic mission after the UN security council failed to take action.

Speaking to reporters, Kirby said the prospect of an Iranian attack on Israel was “still a viable threat” despite concerted efforts by Israel and the US in recent days to deter it.

“We are in constant communication with our Israeli counterparts about making sure that they can defend themselves against those kinds of attacks,” Kirby said. He confirmed that the head of US Central Command, Gen Erik Kurilla, was in Israel talking with defence officials about how Israel could be best prepared.

Israel has said it is strengthening air defences and has paused leave for combat units.

On Friday, France ordered the evacuation of diplomats’ families and warned nationals in several other countries, including Israel and Lebanon, and alerts were issued by Canada and Australia. The US also restricted travel within Israel for US diplomats and their families.

In its strong warning on Friday, the French foreign ministry advised citizens against travelling to Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories and said French civil servants were banned from conducting any missions there.

The advisories followed a number of media reports that Israel was preparing for the prospect of an attack from Iran, possibly as soon as this weekend.

A US official told the Wall Street Journal that American intelligence reports indicated an Iranian retaliatory strike “possibly on Israeli soil” as opposed to against Israeli interests elsewhere, adding that the strike could come within 24 to 48 hours.

The same report, however, also reported an individual briefed by the Iranian leadership as saying no final decision had been taken by Tehran.

While analysts had initially speculated that Iran may not rush into a response, concern has grown in the last two days over the potential for direct conflict between Iran and Israel after years of proxy conflict between the two enemies.

More recently experts have suggested that Iran now feels it is required to act militarily to restore its balance of deterrence with Israel.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden said Iran was threatening a “significant attack” against Israel and that Washington would do all it could to protect Israel’s security.

The US president’s comments in turn followed a televised speech by Iran’s leader saying the attack in Damascus was equivalent to an attack on Iran itself. “When they attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.”

The Israeli military said it was fully prepared for any strike. Israel was “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios, and we are constantly assessing the situation,” the Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, R Adm Daniel Hagari, said at a press conference. “We are ready for attack and defence using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners.”

According to reports in the Israeli media, the IDF believes that Iran or one of its proxies are most likely to attempt to strike a military target rather than civilian centres, although some sites such as the Kirya, Israel’s defence headquarters in Tel Aviv, are located in city centres next to shopping malls, offices and restaurants.

Concern over a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, which has already drawn in Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Yemen’s Houthis, came as Israeli forces continued to fight Palestinian militants in the north and centre of the Gaza Strip.

Residents of al-Nusseirat refugee camp in central Gaza said dozens were dead or wounded after Israeli bombardment from air, land and sea that had followed a surprise ground assault on Thursday, and that houses and two mosques had been destroyed.

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>>> Axon is using technology to benefit society

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-nvidia-likely-next-once-113000380.html

Justin Pope (Axon Enterprise): Years from now, investors may look back at Axon as a generational company that hid in plain sight. The company started with Tasers but has evolved into a full-fledged technology business offering cloud-based solutions for law enforcement.

In addition to non-lethal weapons, Axon sells body cameras and cloud-based software for evidence management and law enforcement operations. These products help protect law enforcement and citizens, ensuring accountability from all parties.

Axon's revenue has grown virtually uninterrupted for years, benefiting from dependable government budgets:

Today, Axon has over 17,000 customers, and the business boasts a 122% net revenue retention rate, meaning that solid growth is baked into the business even without it acquiring new customers.

The stock has already been a big winner. Shares have returned a staggering 54,000% over their lifetime. Axon could continue to deliver. The business still does "just" $1.5 billion in annual revenue.

Management estimates that its current addressable market is $63 billion, leaving a clear opportunity for growth over the coming decade and beyond.

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>>> Military's Ospreys are cleared to return to flight, 3 months after latest fatal crash in Japan


by TARA COPP and MARI YAMAGUCHI

Associated Press

3-8-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/military-s-ospreys-are-cleared-to-return-to-flight-3-months-after-latest-fatal-crash-in-japan/ar-BB1jy83b


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Osprey, a workhorse aircraft vital to U.S. military missions, has been approved to return to flight after an “unprecedented” part failure led to the deaths of eight service members in a crash in Japan in November, Naval Air Systems Command announced Friday.

The crash was the second fatal accident in months and the fourth in two years. It quickly led to a rare fleet-wide grounding of hundreds of Ospreys across the Marine Corps, Air Force and Navy.

Before clearing the Osprey, which can fly like an airplane and then convert to a helicopter, officials said they put increased attention on its proprotor gearbox, instituted new limitations on how it can be flown and added maintenance inspections and requirements that gave them confidence it could safely return to flight.

The entire fleet was grounded Dec. 6, just a week after eight Air Force Special Operations Command service members were killed when their CV-22B Osprey crashed off Yakushima island.

Before lifting the flight restrictions the military also briefed officials in Japan, where public opinion on the Osprey is mixed, on the crash findings and new safety measures. In a statement Friday, Japan defense minister Minoru Kihara said his nation would likewise return its 14 Ospreys to flight status following an "adequate” analysis of the cause of the crash, extremely detailed information on the accident and the steps to mitigate the issue in the future.

Kihara said Japan and the United States will closely coordinate the timeline for resuming flights in Japan, to give the government time to “thoroughly” explain the issue to its citizens.

However, Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki did not support the return to flight. Okinawa is home to Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and its 24 MV-22B Ospreys and is where the public has been most vocal in its opposition to the aircraft.

“It would be best if they stay on the ground, as we have all along requested scrapping of the Osprey deployment,” Tamaki said.

Officials who briefed reporters Wednesday ahead of the flight restrictions lifting said that they quickly grounded the entire fleet in December because it became clear that the way the Osprey part failed in that crash was something they had not seen before on the tiltrotor aircraft.

While the officials did not identify the specific component, because the Air Force's crash investigation is still not completed, they said they now have a better — but not complete — understanding of why it failed.

“This is the first time that we’ve seen this particular component fail in this way. And so this is unprecedented,” said Marine Corps Col. Brian Taylor, V-22 joint program manager at Naval Air Systems Command, or NAVAIR, which is responsible for the V-22 program servicewide.

However, the decision by the Department of Defense to return to flight before separate congressional investigations on the Osprey program are complete drew criticism from the chair of the House Oversight Committee.

“DoD is lifting the Osprey grounding order despite not providing the Oversight Committee and the American people answers about the safety of this aircraft,” said Rep. James Comer, a Kentucky Republican. “Serious concerns remain, such as accountability measures put in place to prevent crashes, a general lack of transparency, how maintenance and operational upkeep is prioritized, and how DoD assesses risks.”

A former Osprey pilot familiar with the investigation confirmed that the component in question is part of the proprotor gearbox, a critical system that includes gearing and clutches that connect the Osprey’s engine to the rotor to turn it.

The services have done a “deep dive” into the proprotor gearbox, and the new safety measures “will address the issues we saw from that catastrophic event,” the head of Air Force Special Operations Command, Lt. Gen. Tony Bauernfeind, said Wednesday.

“I have confidence that we know enough now to return to fly,” he said.

The proprotor gearbox system as a whole is a recurring trouble spot for the Osprey. Service safety data obtained by The Associated Press show dozens of instances among the Marine Corps and Air Force Ospreys in which power surges, sudden loss of oil pressure due to leaks, engine fires or chipping — when the metal components inside the gearbox shed sometimes dangerous metal chips — have damaged the proprotor gearbox in flight, sometimes requiring emergency landings.

Other components of the proprotor gearbox, including the sprag clutch and input quill assembly, have been factors in previous crashes, and the services have made changes, such as replacing those parts on a more frequent basis.

The services are also looking closely at the material that the failed part is made of and how it is manufactured, Bauernfeind said. NAVAIR is also running further tests to give the services more insight into why the component failed.

“It was a single component that failed in such a way that led to catastrophic consequences,” Bauernfeind said.

After that testing is complete, he said, some of the operational safety controls now placed on the Osprey may be lessened “to give us greater flexibility with the platform."

The investigation, known as an accident investigation board, will be made public and is expected to be completed within the next two months.

The proprotor gearbox failure was first reported by NBC News.

Crews have not flown now for more than 90 days — a factor that will make their return to flight more dangerous. The services said Wednesday they are taking a cautious approach that could last from 30 days to several months to retrain their crews before their Osprey squadrons are back to normal flight operations.

The Osprey has been in development for four decades but only became operational in 2007. The U.S. military has flown the Osprey about 750,000 hours and relied on its ability to fly long distances quickly like a plane and then convert to a helicopter to conduct operations in the Middle East and Africa, where some Marine Corps squadrons received an exemption to the flight ban because it was so critical to the mission.

In future needs to counter China, the military has planned on using the Osprey in the Indo-Pacific to operate throughout islands that lack the airfields necessary for traditional aircraft.

But it has also been a controversial, first-generation design of military tiltrotor technology that has recorded more than 14 major accidents that have killed 59 people and in some instances led to the loss of the aircraft, which costs between $70 million and $90 million depending on the variant.

None of the services is planning on new production orders of the V-22, which is produced by a joint venture between Bell Flight and Boeing. The Army has contracted with Bell Flight to buy the Osprey’s successor, the Bell V-280 Valor, which is a tiltrotor like the Osprey but smaller and with an important design change — the engines stay in a fixed, horizontal position. On the Osprey, the rotors and entire nacelle that houses the engine and proprotor gearbox tilt to a vertical position when it flies in helicopter mode.

The Marine Corps operates the vast majority of the Ospreys, with more than 240 currently assigned to its 17 squadrons. Its aviation mission is dependent on the aircraft returning to flight, and the Marine Corps is committed to the Osprey remaining in its fleet through the 2050s, said Marine Corps assistant deputy commandant for aviation Brig. Gen. Richard Joyce.

“There is no taking our eye off of V-22 and the years of service life that it has in front of us,” Joyce said.

The Air Force, which has the second most Ospreys in the fleet, with about 50 assigned to its special operations mission, however, suggested on Wednesday it may start to consider other options.

The early concepts for the Osprey date back to the 1980s, when the Iran hostage crisis exposed a need to have an airframe that could move fast and hover or land like a helicopter, Bauernfeind said.

And it’s met that need quite well, but it is still an older platform, he said. “I do think that it’s time for us to start talking about what is that next generation of capability that can replace what the V-22 does.”

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>>> What are space nukes, the 'indiscriminate' satellite weapon raising tensions between Washington and Moscow?


CNBC

2-22-24

by Karen Gilchrist


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-space-nukes-the-indiscriminate-satellite-weapon-raising-tensions-between-washington-and-moscow/ar-BB1iHaRO?cvid=7e761945afa14a34f58c0faa41d580fe&ei=59


A fresh spat between Washington and Moscow has raised alarm about the potential risk of a space-based nuclear satellite attack.

Russia on Tuesday denied U.S. claims that it was developing a space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon whose detonation could cause chaos to communications systems on Earth.

Space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapons — or so-called space nukes — are a type of weapon designed to damage or destroy satellite systems, either for strategic military or disruptive purposes.

A fresh spat between Washington and Moscow has raised alarm about the potential risk of a space-based nuclear satellite attack which could cause chaos to critical communications systems on Earth.

Russia denied U.S. claims that it was developing a space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon, with President Vladimir Putin saying Tuesday that the Kremlin was "categorically against" the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, and accusing the White House of scaring lawmakers into passing a new aid package for Ukraine.

It comes after a Reuters report emerged earlier Tuesday, citing one source, that said the U.S. believes Moscow is developing a space nuke whose detonation could knock out the satellites underpinning critical U.S. infrastructure, including military communications and mobile phone services. CNBC could not independently verify the report.

Alarm bells around Russia's nuclear advancements were first raised last week when U.S. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner warned of a "serious national security threat" related to Russian capabilities in space.

President Joe Biden later said Moscow appears to be developing an anti-satellite weapon but noted that it posed no urgent "nuclear threat" to the U.S. people, and said that he hoped Russia would not deploy it. However, one source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that such a capability could be launched into orbit as soon as this year.

Analysts told CNBC that the deployment of such a weapon could cause "indiscriminate" damage, reaping havoc on the systems on which people rely for everyday services such as payments, GPS navigation and even the weather.

"Space is integral to our daily lives, whether we realize it or not," said Kari Bingen, director of the aerospace security project and senior fellow in the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

What are space nukes and what disruption could they cause?

Space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapons — or so-called space nukes — are a type of weapon designed to damage or destroy satellite systems. That might be for strategic purposes, for instance to incapacitate an opponent's military operations, or disruptive aims, such as disabling civilian telecoms infrastructure.

A space nuke could be deployed either from Earth or from space, ultimately creating a huge electromagnetic pulse, or electrical surge, which could destroy satellites and fry electronic systems. The release of radiation into the Earth's magnetic field could also degrade space-based satellites over time — though it is unlikely that radiation would cause direct harm to humans.

"It's an indiscriminate weapon," Bingen said. "Detonation would be omnidirectional."

No such weapon has been used in warfare so far, though China, Russia and the U.S. have all used them to shoot down their own satellites in demonstrations of military might.

A hostile deployment could have serious ramifications for the extensive global satellite network.

As of April 2023, there were nearly 7,800 operational satellites in Earth's orbit, according to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, supporting everything from phone and internet networks to televisions, financial services, agricultural systems and space surveillance.

Satellites are also critical to military operations, helping to collect intelligence and detect missile launches as well as enabling navigation and communications. Starlink, the Elon Musk-owned satellite network, for instance, provided Ukrainian forces with uninterrupted communication on the battlefield at the start of the war — though concerns have since arisen that Russia is co-opting such services in occupied areas.

The precise nature of any Russian-made anti-satellite system is currently unclear. However, analysts told Reuters they believe it is likely to use nuclear energy to blind, jam or fry the electronics inside satellites — rather than being a nuclear warhead designed to shoot them down.

The potential impact of an anti-satellite attack would also depend on the altitude of the targeted device and its proximity to other satellites. Analysts told Bloomberg that damage to a satellite in low Earth orbit — the standard position of most commercial satellites — could fry other satellites for hundreds of miles.

"All of it depends on where a detonation would be and what satellites are in that vicinity," Bingen said.

How likely is an anti-satellite attack?

The deployment of a space-based nuclear weapon would mark a major advancement of Russia's military capabilities and a serious escalation of geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. has already said it believes that the system Russia is developing would violate the Outer Space Treaty — a 1967 agreement barring signatories, including Russia and the U.S., from placing "in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction."

Moreover, it would signal a direct effort to undermine U.S. national and economic security.

"They [Russia] have observed how important space capabilities are to our national security and our economic viability," Bingen said.

In the face of such vulnerabilities, the U.S. has been shifting its strategy for space architecture over recent administrations, opting for more widely distributed models comprised of more numerous and smaller satellites. But significant vulnerabilities remain.

"It is incredibly hard to defend against. There is no silver bullet solution," Bingen said.

The threat of nuclear conflict has been ratcheting up since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, marking a retreat from Cold War-era arms control treaties. In 2023, Putin suspended Russia's observation of the New START treaty, the last remaining accord limiting the size of nuclear arsenals in the U.S. and Russia.

Still, Bingen said she believes the use of such a tool would remain a "weapon of last resort" for Russia.

"It would be crossing a nuclear threshold, so that's still an incredibly grave decision. I would have to believe it would be more along the lines of a weapon of last resort," she said.

The next military frontier

Space is often positioned as the next geopolitical frontier, presenting a new domain for military combat and international disputes.

Space defense spending jumped to an estimated $54 billion in 2022, up from $45 billion the year prior, according to the latest figures from the U.S. nonprofit Space Foundation. The U.S. was seen to lead that charge, though the report acknowledged that official figures for Russia and China were harder to obtain.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told CNBC on Saturday that the military alliance had long been aware of the "challenges and threats" of space, and noted that it was ready to defend any space-based attack.

A 2021 revision to NATO's space policy said that an attack to, from or within space would present a "clear challenge" to the alliance and could lead to the invocation of its Article 5 mutual defense clause.

"NATO is prepared to defend all allies against any threat in any domain," he told CNBC's Silvia Amaro on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.

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>>> A Houthi missile was just seconds from hitting a US warship. The Navy used its ‘last line of defense’


by Brad Lendon

CNN

February 2, 2024


https://www.yahoo.com/news/houthi-missile-just-seconds-hitting-062737193.html


A US warship’s destruction of an incoming Houthi missile in the Red Sea this week marks the first use in this conflict of an advanced weapons system dubbed the Navy’s “last line of defense.”

The Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) was deployed by Navy destroyer the USS Gravely Tuesday night against what US officials said was a cruise missile that got as near as 1 mile to the ship – and therefore seconds from impact.

The automated Phalanx system features Gatling guns that can fire up to 4,500 20-millimeter rounds a minute, engaging projectiles or other targets at extremely close range.

“The Phalanx weapon system is a rapid-fire, computer-controlled, radar-guided gun that can defeat anti-ship missiles and other close-in threats on land and at sea,” manufacturer Raytheon says on its website page titled, “Last line of defense.”

US warships have defeated dozens of previous Houthi missile attacks using longer-range defenses, likely the Standard SM-2, Standard SM-6 and Evolved Sea Sparrow missiles, analysts say. Those defensive missiles engage their targets at ranges of 8 miles (about 12 kilometers) or more.

But on Tuesday night that didn’t happen for reasons that have not been revealed.

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it was “concerning” that the Houthi missile got so close to a US warship.

“If it’s going at a pretty good clip, 1 mile translates to not very long in terms of time,” Karako said.

Analyst Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain, said the Houthi missile, traveling at about 600 mph (965 kph), was likely about 4 seconds from hitting the US warship when it was destroyed by what was likely a 2- to 3-second burst of machine gun fire by the Gravely’s Phalanx system.

He noted that destroying an incoming missile at a 1-mile distance doesn’t necessarily prevent warships from being hit with debris.

“The missiles don’t evaporate when destroyed, they send out thousands of fragments and missile frame parts,” Schuster said. “The good news is that the lighter parts decelerate quickly, but large chunks can fly up to 500 meters (more than 500 yards).”

The closer the incoming missile is to the ship when destroyed, the more danger there is to the vessel, with larger chunks able to penetrate unarmored parts of the hull and superstructure from about 200 meters (more than 200 yards) out, Schuster said.

In a case of a subsonic cruise missile like that encountered by the Gravely on Tuesday, “depending on if the warhead detonates, debris size, missile flight angle and altitude at the time of missile destruction, about 2% of the debris might reach the ship,” he said.

Up to 70% of debris from missiles that travel at a faster speed, such as supersonic cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, would likely hit a warship after being engaged by the Phalanx, he said.

The Phalanx has a limited height range, so it may not even be able to engage ballistic missiles falling from above a warship, Schuster added.

Even with those caveats, the Phalanx is an important armament for the US Navy.

Since its introduction in 1980, it is now installed on all US Navy surface ships, and at least 24 US allies also use it, according to Raytheon, which notes the land-based version has seen combat before.

Whether it comes into further use in the current hostilities in the Red Sea remains to be seen. But the Iran-backed Houthis show no signs of slowing their attacks on commercial shipping and warships in the waters around their base in Yemen, which they claim are retaliation against Israel for its war in Gaza.

A day after the attack on the Gravely, US Central Command reported another US destroyer, the USS Carney, had shot down incoming anti-ship missiles and drones. And on Thursday, US forces shot down a Houthi drone over the Gulf of Aden and destroyed a surface drone in the Red Sea, it said.

Meanwhile, two ballistic missiles launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen missed targets in the Red Sea, Central Command said.

Regional conflict

The attacks on Red Sea shipping are just some of the dozens that have been made by Iranian proxy groups in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq since the war in Gaza erupted last October.

The deadliest of those for the US military occurred last Sunday, when a drone strike on a US outpost in Jordan killed three American soldiers. The US believes an umbrella group of militants called Islamic Resistance in Iraq was behind the attack.

President Joe Biden told reporters Tuesday he had made a decision about the US response to the strike, but declined to provide further details.

Options for the Biden administration could involve strikes on Iranian assets in the region — but striking inside Iran itself is highly unlikely, officials said, since Washington is not seeking a direct war with Tehran.

US officials told CNN this week there are signs Iran may be growing worried its proxies are taking the attacks on US interests too far, threatening to disrupt the global economy and significantly increasing the risk of a direct confrontation.

But some current and former US officials are skeptical that Iran will substantively change its tactics. One US military official based in the Middle East said Iran is “quite happy with how things are going.”

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>>> Middle East escalation fears spike as Houthis launch most damaging attack yet


CNBC

by Natasha Turak

2-20-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/middle-east-escalation-fears-spike-as-houthis-launch-most-damaging-attack-yet/ar-BB1iA9RC?cvid=24ea94dab2584ee681d18b29704adf34&ei=61


The crew of the British-owned carrier MV Rubymar were forced to abandon ship in the Gulf of Aden after "two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched" from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, according to U.S. Central Command.

Meanwhile, Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip continues as alarm grows over a potential ground offensive into Rafah, where some 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering.

Twenty-six EU countries have issued a warning against Israel's offensive in Rafah, saying it would only deepen the humanitarian catastrophe there.

The Middle East looks set for a path of escalation on multiple fronts as Israeli forces close in on what is left of southern Gaza, and as Yemen's Houthi rebels launch their most damaging strike yet on a ship in the Red Sea.

The crew of the British-owned, Belize-flagged bulk carrier MV Rubymar were forced to abandon ship in the Gulf of Aden on Monday, receiving help from a nearby merchant vessel and coalition warship to reach a nearby port after "two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas of Yemen," according to U.S. Central Command.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the group's responsibility for the attack, calling it their most severe yet. The group claim to support Palestinian civilians amid Israel's retaliatory military campaign in the Gaza Strip.

"The ship was severely damaged, leading to its complete halt … It is now at risk of sinking in the Gulf Aden," Saree said Monday.

Simultaneously, fighting is raging between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip with no sign of abating despite diplomatic efforts by a number of countries.

Israel's government has warned of a potential ground invasion of Rafah, Gaza's southern corner along the Egyptian border where more than 1.5 million Palestinians — the majority of whom were displaced from other parts of Gaza — are sheltering, mostly in makeshift tents with very little access to food, water and medicine.

More than 29,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel's offensive on the blockaded territory began on Oct. 7, when Hamas militants launched an unprecedented terror attack on Israel that killed roughly 1,200 people and took another 240 hostage.

"I think unfortunately, we need to be prepared for more escalation really on two fronts," Charles Myers, chairman and founder of advisory firm Signum Global Advisors, told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Tuesday.

"The Houthis are proving to be far more effective at disrupting international maritime trade," Myers said.

"And the military response so far from the U.S. and the U.K. has not diminished or degraded their capability, which means we need a much larger military response from the U.S. and the U.K. in the next several days to try to take out more of these capabilities, so we need to watch that on the other side."

Meanwhile, "Israel I think is going to continue on their path of conquering Gaza in the next four to six weeks," Myers said. "They are then now already focused on the second phase of their war, which is to push Hezbollah 32 kilometers back into Lebanon, which is even more controversial in a way from a geopolitical or military perspective. And we need to see what Hezbollah does to respond to Israel."

Hezbollah, the powerfully-armed Lebanese Shia militant and organization backed by Iran, is also engaged in regular exchanges of fire with Israeli forces as well as attacks on Israeli military installations, while Israel has carried out assassinations of senior Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Beirut. A full-on war between the two would be devastating for both sides, regional analysts say.

Mounting alarm over planned Israeli assault on Rafah

Twenty-six EU countries — every member of the bloc except Hungary — have issued a warning against Israel's offensive in Rafah, saying it would only deepen the humanitarian catastrophe there.

EU foreign ministers called in a joint statement for an immediate humanitarian pause that would lead to a lasting cease-fire. Even the U.S., Israel's staunchest backer, proposed a rival draft U.N. Security Council resolution, and called for a temporary cease-fire as well — the first time the U.S. has used the word cease-fire in any U.N. action related to the war.

Israel's government has so far rejected the calls, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that anyone telling Israel not to invade Rafah is telling it to lose the war.

Still, the government hasn't fully committed to the assault, with some ministers saying that it will only go ahead if Israeli hostages are not released by the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins around March 8.

Asked by CNBC's Dan Murphy if there was anything the international community could do to stop Israel's planned offensive into Rafah, Myers replied in the negative.

"No; I think at this point the war cabinet in Israel is going to continue on their path, which they've told the world ... is the full conquest of Gaza. We may get a temporary cease-fire, which they're working on between the U.S., Qatar, Israel and other countries. But even if it is a temporary cease-fire, Israel will go right back in and finish, they will take Rafah," he said.

Myers noted that the Biden administration has been more critical than ever of Israel's plans, openly opposing any incursion into Rafah. But that still likely won't be enough to force Israel to change course, he said.

"Even the Biden administration, which has had a rhetorical pivot in the last week on Gaza, really ratcheting up the rhetoric and the sort of threats to Israel saying 'please slow down, please stop, please be more mindful of all the civilian casualties', for example ... I think even with that pivot, Israel is going to keep doing exactly what they're doing."

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>>> Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices (CEDs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Software and Sensors, and TASER. The company also offers hardware and cloud-based software solutions that enable law enforcement to capture, securely store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Its products include TASER 7, TASER X26P, TASER X2, TASER Consumer devices, and related cartridges; on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, and other devices; Axon Evidence digital evidence management software-as-a-service; Axon Signal enabled devices, as well as hardware extended warranties; and Axon docks, cartridges, and batteries. It sells its products through its direct sales force, distribution partners, online store, and third-party resellers. Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to expand the capabilities of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real-Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution to provide agencies real-time operations situational awareness. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

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>>> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community in the United States to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations. The company provides Palantir Gotham, a software platform which enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. It also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that enables customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment. Palantir Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

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>>> Palantir stock surge shows investors haven’t had enough of AI — yet


Yahoo Finance

by Josh Schafer

February 6, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-surge-shows-investors-havent-had-enough-of-ai--yet-150712969.html


Palantir (PLTR) stock soared more than 30% Tuesday as investors cheered the defense software maker's latest artificial intelligence advancements.

"I've never before seen the level of customer enthusiasm and demand that we are currently seeing from [artificial intelligence platforms] in US commercial," Palantir chief revenue officer Ryan Taylor told investors during the company's earnings call on Monday night.

The software company's Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP, was mentioned nearly 50 times throughout the call. And, according to Palantir, it's a key reason it expects US commercial revenue to grow nearly 40% in 2024.

It's also the reason the stock surged more than 100% over the past year, as AI euphoria sent many tech stocks roaring. Amid calls that Denver-based Palantir's stock was already overvalued, Tuesday's market action is the latest sign that investors haven't had enough of the AI trade — even if Wall Street believes parts of the trade have extended beyond any fundamental backing.

"We are incredibly bullish on Palantir," Morningstar equity analyst Malik Ahmed Khan told Yahoo Finance Live. "If you look at our forecasts you would see us being above consensus on profitability, on revenue, etc."

"At the same time," he added, "we cannot rationalize Palantir's current valuation in the base case."

Jefferies equity analyst Brent Thill, who entered the earnings report with a Sell rating on Palantir, conceded in a research note after the release that the AIP growth is exceeding expectations. But even after upgrading the stock to a Hold rating, Thill still warned about the cost of the stock.

"The biggest concern is valuation with [the] stock trading at a 23% premium to the large cap average," Thill wrote.

It's not just Palantir that's been catching a fresh bid on AI hopes to start 2024. On Monday, Goldman Sachs boosted its price target on Nvidia stock (NVDA) to $800 from $625, citing "robust AI demand" among other things. The stock jumped almost 5% to a fresh all-time high.

Also, IBM (IBM) stock is up about 15% over the past month after AI demand fueled a revenue beat. AI leader Microsoft (MSFT) saw a muted reaction to earnings, even as the company credited AI services with 6 percentage points of growth to Azure revenue. But in fairness, the stock is also trading just short of an all-time high and is up more than 10% in the last month. The same could be said for AMD (AMD), which didn't soar on its AI-driven earnings beat but is up over 25% in the last month and hovering near an all-time high.

The moves raise the question for investors: When will AI euphoria reach a price that they are no longer willing to pay? To Khan at Morningstar, that could rely on how the US economy performs for the rest of the year.

"There is a chance that if the economy remains strong, customers will continue to invest in some of those newer growth areas," Khan said. "At the same time, if we're looking at a recession or we're looking at something else going on in the wider economy and the economy is not as strong at that point, you will probably have investors sort of dial back some of their investments."

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Rickards - >>> Could AI Start Nuclear War?


BY JAMES RICKARDS

JANUARY 22, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/could-ai-start-nuclear-war/


Could AI Start Nuclear War?

I’ve covered a wide variety of potential crises over the years. These include natural disasters, pandemics, social unrest and financial collapse. That’s a daunting list.

One thing I haven’t done is to cover the greatest potential calamity of all — nuclear war. For the reasons explained below, now is the time to consider it.

Nuclear warfighting is back in the air. The subject is receiving more attention today than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and its aftermath. There are three reasons for this.

The first is American accusations that Russia would escalate to use nuclear weapons as it grew more desperate in its conduct of the war in Ukraine. These accusations were always false and are risible now that Russia is clearly winning the war with conventional arms.

Still, the threats and counter-threats were enough to put the topic in play.

The second reason is the war between Israel and Hamas. Again, escalation is the concern. One not implausible scenario has Hezbollah in southern Lebanon opening a second front on Israel’s northern border with intensive missile bombardment.

Houthi rebels in Yemen would join the attack. Since Hezbollah and the Houthis are both Shia Muslims and Iranian proxies, Israel could attack Iran as the source of the escalation.

Israel is a nuclear power. With a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group and a nuclear attack submarine in the region, and with nuclear powers Russia and Pakistan standing by to assist Iran, the prospect of escalation to a nuclear exchange is real.

The escalating tensions between Iran and Pakistan just this week add even more fuel to the fire.

The third reason is artificial intelligence and GPT output. Although artificial intelligence can provide profitable opportunities for investors in many sectors of the market, AI/GPT may also be the greatest threat to nuclear escalation because it has an internal logic that’s inconsistent with the human logic that has kept nuclear peace for the past 80 years.

I’ve covered Ukraine and Israel extensively, and they’re widely covered in the news. But today, I’m addressing the risks of nuclear war from AI/GPT. It’s a threat you’re not hearing anything about, but it needs to be addressed.

Let’s start with a fictional movie. The paradigmatic portrayal of an accidental nuclear war is the 1964 film Fail Safe. In the film, U.S. radar detects an intrusion into U.S. airspace by an unidentified but potentially hostile aircraft.

The U.S. Air Force soon determines that the aircraft is an off-course civilian airliner. In the meantime, a computer responding to the intrusion erroneously orders a U.S. strategic bomber group led by Col. Jack Grady to commence a nuclear attack on Moscow.

U.S. efforts to rescind the order and recall the bombers fail because of Soviet jamming of radio channels. The president orders the military to shoot down the bombers and fighter jets are scrambled for that purpose.

The fighters use afterburners to catch the bombers, but they fail, and the increased fuel consumption causes them to plunge into the Arctic Sea.

The president next communicates with the Soviet premier who agrees to stop the jamming. The president speaks with the attack bomber group leader to call off the attack, but the crew has been trained to disregard such pleas as a Soviet ploy.

The U.S. then offers the Soviets’ technical assistance in helping to shoot down the bombers. The planes are almost all shot down, but one makes it through. The president puts Col. Grady’s wife on the radio; he hesitates but is soon preoccupied with evading Soviet missiles. He then decides his wife’s voice is another deception.

Anticipating the worst and seeking to avoid a full-scale nuclear war, the president orders a U.S. nuclear bomber to fly over New York City knowing the first lady is in New York.

In the end, Moscow is destroyed by a U.S. nuclear weapon and the president orders a nuclear bomb to be dropped on New York City using the Empire State Building as ground zero. The expectation is that the sacrifice of New York in exchange for Moscow will end the escalation, but that is not portrayed in the film.

The next step is left in doubt.

Although Fail Safe is 60 years old, the issues it raises and some of the plot twists are strikingly contemporary. The computer error that caused the attack in the film is never explained technically, yet that’s not highly relevant.

Computer errors occur all the time in critical infrastructure and can cause real harm including power blackouts and train wrecks. Such computer errors are the essence of the debate over AI in strategic systems today.

Read on to see why…

Could AI Start a Nuclear War?
By Jim Rickards

AI in a command-and-control context can either malfunction and issue erroneous orders as in Fail Safe or, more likely, function as designed yet issue deadly prescriptions based on engineering errors, skewed training sets or strange emergent properties from correlations that humans can barely perceive.

Perhaps most familiar to contemporary audiences are the failed efforts of the president and Col. Grady’s wife to convince the bomber commander to call off the attack. Grady had been trained to expect such efforts and to treat them as deceptions.

Today, such deceptions would be carried out with deepfake video and audio transmissions. Presumably, the commander’s training and dismissal of the pleas would be the same despite the more sophisticated technology behind them. Technology advances yet aspects of human behavior are unchanged.

Another misunderstanding, this one real not fictional, that came close to causing a nuclear war was a 1983 incident codenamed Able Archer.

The roots of Able Archer go back to May 1981 when then General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Leonid Brezhnev and KGB head Yuri Andropov (later general secretary) disclosed to senior Soviet leaders their view that the U.S. was secretly preparing to launch a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union.

Andropov then announced a massive intelligence collection effort to track the people who would be responsible for launching and implementing such an attack along with their facilities and communications channels.

At the same time, the Reagan administration began a series of secret military operations that aggressively probed Soviet waters with naval assets and flew directly toward Soviet airspace with strategic bombers that backed away only at the last instant.

These advances were ostensibly to test Soviet defenses but had the effect of playing to Soviet perceptions that the U.S. was planning a nuclear attack.

Analysts agree that the greatest risk of escalation and actual nuclear war arises when perceptions of the two sides vary in such a way as to make rational assessment of the escalation dynamic impossible. The two sides are on different paths making different calculations.

Tensions rose further in 1983 when the U.S. Navy flew F-14 Tomcat fighter jets over a Soviet military base in the Kuril Islands and the Soviets responded by flying over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. On Sept. 1, 1983, Soviet fighter jets shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over the Sea of Japan. A U.S. Congressman was onboard.

On November 4, 1983, the U.S. and NATO allies commenced an extensive war game codenamed Able Archer. This was intended to simulate a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union following a series of escalations.

The problem was that the escalations were written out in the war game briefing books but not actually simulated. The transition from conventional warfare to nuclear wargame was simulated.

This came at a time when the Soviets and the KGB were actively looking for signs of a nuclear attack. The simulations involving NATO Command, Control and Communications protocols were highly realistic including participation by German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. The Soviets plausibly believed that the war game was actually cover for a real attack.

In the belief that the U.S. was planning a nuclear first-strike, the Soviets determined that their only course to survive was to launch a preemptive first strike of their own. They ordered nuclear warheads to be placed on Soviet Air Army strategic bombers and put nuclear attack aircrafts in Poland and East Germany on high alert.

This real life near nuclear war had a backstory that is even more chilling. The Soviets had previously built an early warning radar system with computer linkages using a primitive kind of AI codenamed Oko.

On September 26, 1983, just two months before Able Archer, the system malfunctioned and reported five incoming ICBMs from the United States. Oko alarms sounded and the computer screen flashed “LAUNCH.” Under the protocols, the LAUNCH display was not a warning but a computer-generated order to retaliate.

Lt. Col. Stanislov Petrov of the Soviet Air Defense Forces saw the computer order and had to immediately choose between treating the order as a computer malfunction or alerting his senior officers who would likely commence a nuclear counterattack.

Petrov was a co-developer of Oko and knew the system made mistakes. He also estimated that if the attack were real, the U.S. would use far more than five missiles. Petrov was right. The computer had misread the sun’s reflection off some clouds as incoming missiles.

Given the tensions of the day and the KGB’s belief that a nuclear attack could come at any time, Petrov risked the future of the Soviet Union to override the Oko system. He relied on a combination of inference, experience, and gut instinct to disable the kill-chain.

The incident remained secret until well after the end of the Cold War. In time, Petrov was praised as “The Man Who Saved the World.”

The threat of nuclear war due to AI comes not just from the nuclear-armed powers but from third parties and non-state actors using AI to create what are called catalytic nuclear disasters. The term catalytic refers to chemical agents that cause volatile reactions among other compounds without themselves being part of the reaction.

As applied in international relations, it refers to agents who might prompt a nuclear war among the great powers without themselves being involved in the war. That could leave the weak agent in a relatively strong position once the great powers had destroyed themselves.

AI/GPT systems have already found their way into the nuclear warfighting process. It will be up to humans to keep their role marginal and data oriented, not decision oriented. Given the history of technology in warfare from bronze spears to hypersonic missiles, it’s difficult to conclude AI/GPT will be so contained. If not, we will all pay the price.

Ukraine, Gaza, and AI all raise the odds of a nuclear war considerably. The financial implications of this for investors are simple. In case of nuclear war, stocks, bonds, cash and other financial assets will be worthless. Exchanges and banks will be closed. The only valuable assets will be land, gold and silver.

It’s a good idea to have all three — just in case.

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>>> Iran launches 3 satellites into space that are part of a Western-criticized program as tensions rise


By JON GAMBRELL

Associated Press

1-28-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-launches-3-satellites-into-space-that-are-part-of-a-western-criticized-program-as-tensions-rise/ar-BB1hn1vw?OCID=ansmsnnews11


JERUSALEM (AP) — Iran said Sunday it successfully launched three satellites into space with a rocket that had multiple failures in the past, the latest for a program that the West says improves Tehran's ballistic missiles.

The launch comes as heightened tensions grip the wider Middle East over Israel’s continued war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, sparking fears of a regional conflict.

While Iran has not intervened militarily in the conflict, it has faced increased pressure within its theocracy for action after a deadly Islamic State suicide bombing earlier this month and as proxy groups like Yemen's Houthi rebels conduct attacks linked to the war. Meanwhile, Western nations remain worried about Iran's rapidly expanding nuclear program.

Footage released by Iranian state television showed a nighttime launch for the Simorgh rocket. An Associated Press analysis of the footage showed that it took place at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran’s rural Semnan province.

“The roar of the Simorgh (rocket) resonated in our country’s sky and infinite space," said Abbas Rasooli, a state TV reporter, in the footage.

State TV named the launched satellites Mahda, Kayhan-2 and Hatef-1. It described the Mahda as a research satellite, while the Kayhan and the Hatef were nanosatellites focused on global positioning and communication respectively. Iran's Information and Communications Technology Minister Isa Zarepour said the Mahda had already sent signals back to Earth.

There have been five failed launches in a row for the Simorgh program, a satellite-carrying rocket. The Simorgh, or “Phoenix,” rocket failures have been part of a series of setbacks in recent years for Iran's civilian space program, including fatal fires and a launchpad rocket explosion that drew the attention of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

The footage showed the rocket launched Sunday bore the slogan “We Can" in Farsi, likely referring to the previous failures.

The Simorgh is a two-stage, liquid-fueled rocket the Iranians described as being designed to place satellites into a low Earth orbit.

However, the U.S. intelligence community’s 2023 worldwide threat assessment said the development of satellite launch vehicles “shortens the timeline” for Iran to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology. That report specifically cites the Simorgh as a possible dual-use rocket.

The United States has previously said Iran’s satellite launches defy a U.N. Security Council resolution and called on Tehran to undertake no activity involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. U.N. sanctions related to Iran’s ballistic missile program expired last October.

Under Iran’s relatively moderate former President Hassan Rouhani, the Islamic Republic slowed its space program for fear of raising tensions with the West. However, in the time since, the 2015 nuclear deal Rouhani shepherded with world powers has collapsed and tensions have been boiling for years with the U.S.

Hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who came to power in 2021, has pushed the program forward. Meanwhile, Iran enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels and enough material for several atomic bombs, though U.S. intelligence agencies and others assess Tehran has not begun actively seeking a nuclear weapon.

On Friday, France, Germany and the United Kingdom condemned an Iranian satellite launch on Jan. 20, similarly calling it capable of helping Iran develop long-range ballistic missiles.

“We have longstanding concerns over Iran’s activity related to ballistic missile technologies that are capable of delivering nuclear weapons,” the countries said. “These concerns are reinforced by Iran’s continued nuclear escalation beyond all credible civilian justification.”

Tehran maintains the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Mideast, in part due to decades of sanctions following its 1979 Islamic Revolution and the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis blocking it from advanced fighter jets and other weapon systems.

The U.S. military and the State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment Sunday. However, the U.S. military has quietly acknowledged the Jan. 20 launch conducted by the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was successful.

Meanwhile Sunday, the United Kingdom's Defense Ministry acknowledged one of its warships shot down a drone launched by the Houthi rebels from Yemen. The HMS Diamond shot down the drone with its Sea Viper missile system in the Red Sea, causing no damage or injuries, it said.

“These intolerable and illegal attacks are completely unacceptable and it is our duty to protect the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The Houthis did not acknowledge the attack. The rebels have said U.S. and British ships are now targets in their campaign of attacks that they say is aimed at pressuring Israel to stop the war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, their attacks increasingly have tenuous or no links to the war and have disrupted international trade.

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>>> Houthi Rebels Fire Missile At US Warship Amid Red Sea Conflict: 'They're Now Finally Calling A Spade A Spade'


Benzinga

1-27-24

by Navdeep Yadav


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/houthi-rebels-fire-missile-at-us-warship-amid-red-sea-conflict-they-re-now-finally-calling-a-spade-a-spade/ar-BB1hkMqo?ocid=ansmsnnews11&cvid=1acf1c1ff1af426597c43a42524e6ca0&ei=61


In a significant escalation of the ongoing maritime conflict, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have targeted a U.S. warship with a missile. The attack, which occurred in the Gulf of Aden, has further intensified the already volatile situation in the region.

What Happened: The Houthi rebels, who have been engaged in a series of aggressive attacks on maritime traffic, fired a missile at the USS Carney, a U.S. warship patrolling the Gulf of Aden. The U.S. Navy confirmed that the missile was successfully intercepted, reported the Associated Press on Friday.

This incident marks the first direct attack on a U.S. warship by the Houthi rebels since they began targeting shipping in October. The attack on the Carney is part of a series of aggressive actions by the rebels, including the striking of a British vessel on the same day.

Despite the U.S. and its allies’ efforts to downplay the situation, the Houthi rebels have continued their attacks, disrupting global trade in the region. The U.S. and Britain have responded with airstrikes on Houthi weapons sites in Yemen, a country that has been embroiled in conflict since the rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014.

Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said "They're now finally calling a spade a spade, and saying that, yeah, they're trying to attack our forces, they're trying to kill us."

Why It Matters: The recent attack on the U.S. warship comes in the wake of a warning issued by Chinese officials to Iran, urging them to control the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The warning, delivered during high-level meetings in Beijing and Tehran, highlighted the potential impact of the attacks on China’s business with Iran.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been expressing increasing concern about Iran’s supply of advanced weaponry to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. This assistance has significantly enhanced the rebels’ ability to disrupt international commerce and attack merchant vessels, despite ongoing U.S.-led airstrikes.

Following the recent airstrikes by the U.S. and the U.K., with the support of other nations, the Houthis have ordered U.S. and British nationals in Yemen to leave the country within a month. This decision was in response to the military strikes, which were carried out in retaliation for the group’s attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.

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>>> Red Sea Turmoil Sends Economic Shockwaves Far and Wide


Bloomberg

by Enda Curran

Jan 23, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/red-sea-turmoil-sends-economic-000016179.html


(Bloomberg) — Two months of missile, drone and hijacking attacks against civilian ships in the Red Sea have caused the biggest diversion of international trade in decades, pushing up costs for shippers as far away as Asia and North America. The disruption is spreading, fueling fears of broader economic fallout.

Repeated rounds of retaliatory strikes by the US and its allies, as well as a multinational naval operation to patrol the waters, haven’t stopped the assaults by the Houthi militants that followed the start of the Israel-Hamas war. With sailors demanding double pay and insurance rates skyrocketing, shipping lines are steering clear of a waterway that normally carries 12% of the world’s seaborne trade.

More than 500 container ships that would have sailed through the Red Sea to and from the Suez Canal, carrying everything from clothing and toys to auto parts, are now adding two weeks to their routes to travel around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, according to Flexport. That’s about a quarter of all the container-shipping capacity in the world, according to the digital logistics platform.

“We haven’t seen costs increase this quickly since the last crunch in the pandemic,” said Vincent Iacopella, a logistics expert at Alba Wheels Up. Many of the underlying bottlenecks in supply chains remain, even though prices dropped last year as the Covid-19 disruptions faded, he said. The cost of shipping containers from China to the Mediterranean Sea has more than quadrupled since late November, according to Freightos, a cargo-booking company.

Shipping lines, as well as those that carry oil, say they’re planning for the upheaval to last months or more, with vessels for the longer route booked as far out as the summer. That means every company sending goods has more inventory tied up in transit and needs yet more in case containers get scarce. Already, the factories that make those ubiquitous metal cargo boxes are working flat out, according to Container xChange, an online industry platform. Ports as far away as Halifax, Nova Scotia report delays in getting ships, and higher costs.

Customers are scrambling to adapt. Volvo Car AB and Tesla Inc. have announced production suspensions at plants in Europe, citing the inability to get components from suppliers in Asia. British retailers Tesco Plc and, Marks & Spencer Group Plc have flagged the risk of higher costs. Maersk, the No. 2 container carrier, warned last week that disruptions will last for a few months at least. Though many companies say they still haven’t felt the effects, the longer the upheaval goes on, the wider the economic impact.

Underestimated Risks

“So far, many executives and investors have consistently undershot the potential for this risk to emerge,” said Alexis Crow, who specializes in geopolitics and long-term investing at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. “This is perhaps predicated on a misguided assumption that the Israel-Hamas conflict remains contained.”

Though there’s no sign the higher costs are boosting inflation yet, central bankers are already warning of the risks. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, cited “the coming back of supply bottlenecks” as one of the four key risk factors she’s watching. Low water levels are already slowing flows through the Panama Canal.

A spike in oil prices would be another risk for inflation if the conflict disrupted supply.

“So far I think we have been lucky in that we haven’t seen an oil tanker get hit.” said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders. “That could be really something that then focuses the mind.”

Bloomberg Economics says the upside risks from shipping costs could offer central banks another reason to delay interest-rate cuts. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co forecast a 0.7 percentage-point increase to global goods inflation during the first half of this year if the shipping crunch persists.

Higher Costs

“So far, we’ve mainly felt the higher costs,” said Rainer Grill, spokesman for Ziehl-Abegg SE, a manufacturer of ventilation technology based in Kuenzelsau, Germany. “The delays are particularly painful for individual shipments — such as components for new production plants that are on their way to Asia.”

Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at trade group Bimco, said the impact from the Red Sea crisis is already more severe than that from the Ever Given, the huge ship which ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal for about a week in 2021. If it continues, he said, the effect could rival the 1956 Suez Crisis, which left the canal closed for five months.

This time, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the rerouting adds about 40% in voyage distance. For importers that means delays, higher costs, key components stuck on the high seas and air freight offering a limited alternative. The volume of shipments by plane from Vietnam to Europe — a major route for clothing — jumped 62% in the week ended Jan. 14, according to Oslo-based Xeneta. Other carriers are going overland via Kazakhstan, bypassing Russia to get goods to Europe.

US Casualties

On the turquoise waters off Yemen, there are signs the tensions may be getting worse.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon said the US and its allies had destroyed 25 Houthi missile facilities, days after President Joe Biden warned that strikes would continue for the foreseeable future.

“Deterrence is not a light switch,” US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told ABC on Sunday. “We are taking out these stockpiles so they will not be able to conduct so many attacks over time. That will take time to play out.”

Read more: US, UK Strike Yemen’s Houthis Again to Stop Red Sea Attacks

Late Sunday, the US reported the first two deaths of soldiers involved in the operation. A pair of Navy SEAL commandos died during a night mission to board a dhow — a local boat frequently used by the Houthis to ferry supplies from their main backer, Iran.

The group’s assaults began a few weeks after Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel. So far, the Houthis haven’t done much damage, but shipping companies are spooked nonetheless.

Most of the Houthi attacks have come in and around the Bab el-Mandeb — which translates roughly from Arabic as ‘Gate of Tears’ — a narrow strait that vessels pass through to enter the Red Sea coming from the Indian Ocean.

The global attention is something the Houthis, a militant group from the remote mountains of Yemen, have been craving for years. The car-transport ship they hijacked in their first attack is now docked off the country’s coast, an attraction for local residents.

If it weren’t for the actions of the US and its allies, “we would not have become a regional and international force,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi Political Council, said in a phone interview from Sanaa. He vowed that the attacks will continue as long as Israel’s assault on Gaza and blockade of the enclave do. “We are confident that we will win regardless of how much they mobilize forces,” he said.

Iran Role

Iran counts the group along with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon in its “axis of resistance.” The Houthis’ arsenal includes ballistic and cruise missiles, some inherited from the Soviet-era stocks they captured in the civil war, upgraded with Iranian technology, according to military analysts.

“Iran trusts the Houthis a lot,” said Adnan Al-Gabarni, a Yemeni specialist on the militant group. Tehran provides support but “leaves a margin for the Houthis to act on their own.”

Supplies of oil and gas so far haven’t been affected dramatically.

The Red Sea route has become a key corridor for Russian oil cargoes in the wake of Europe's decision to stop buying from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The Houthis have said they won't target those ships, though two have been struck, apparently by accident. Some other producers are also using the route, hoping to avoid the Houthis’ wrath. Most Middle East crude bound for the US Gulf Coast already goes around the Cape of Good Hope because it’s carried in tankers too big to fit through the Suez Canal when fully loaded.

China has so far steered clear of the Red Sea conflict. The world’s biggest trading nation imports about half of its crude oil from the Middle East, and it exports more to the European Union than the US. The Houthis have said they won’t target Chinese ships.

By exposing the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain that remain since the pandemic, the Red Sea stress has highlighted risks for other potential hot spots, as well, cautioned Josh Lipsky, senior director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

“If anyone expected two years later we’d be able to look at a shut down in the Red Sea and say, ‘that’s fine because we’ve built up these resiliencies closer to home’ — that’s just not realistic," he said.

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Neocons are clamoring for the US to attack Iran directly -


>>> The West must now sink Iran’s spy ship – and bomb its terror commanders <<<


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-west-must-now-sink-iran-s-spy-ship-and-bomb-its-terror-commanders/ar-AA1n3Xly?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=82499263e6a540a1afb4253a3bb32e7a&ei=17




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>>> US Navy and UK Royal Navy shoot down 18 Houthi drones and 3 missiles


ABC News

by LUIS MARTINEZ

January 9, 2024


https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-navy-uk-royal-navy-032522331.html


The U.S. Navy and the U.K.’s Royal Navy foiled a major Houthi attack Tuesday night in the Red Sea, shooting down 18 one-way drones and three missiles targeting commercial ships.

The incident began at around 9:15 p.m. local time when the Houthis launched "Iranian-designed one-way attack" drones, "anti-ship cruise missiles, and an anti-ship ballistic missile," Centcom said in a post on X. According to Centcom, the weapons were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The Houthi missiles and drones were targeting an area where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting, Centcom said Tuesday night.

All of the drones and missiles were shot down by fighter jets from Navy carrier the USS Eisenhower, three U.S. Navy destroyers and the U.K.’s HMS Diamond, according to Centcom.

Tuesday night’s attack marks the 26th Houthi attack on commercial shipping lanes since Nov. 19.

The U.S. issued a joint statement with a coalition of allies over the attacks earlier this month, saying, "The Houthis will bear the responsibility for the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, or the free flow of commerce in the region's critical waterways."

In late December, the Pentagon announced the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multi-national maritime task force that would counter the Houthi attacks.

The American and British warships that countered this latest Houthi attack are all participating in that operation.

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Boeing MQ-25 Stingray -

Note - Seems like a fairly hard landing (1:43) -

>>> Israel is withdrawing some troops from Gaza. Is the war winding down or entering a new phase?


Story by Rafi Schwartz

The Week US

Jan 3, 2024


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-is-withdrawing-some-troops-from-gaza-is-the-war-winding-down-or-entering-a-new-phase/ar-AA1mqdb6?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=f6e21cf081f040f4b722da051250a90d&ei=38


As the war between Israel and Hamas militants nears its third bloody month of violence, Israeli military officials this week announced plans to withdraw a significant number of troops from the Gaza Strip, with IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari describing the plans as "adjusting the fighting methods" for the ongoing conflict. By rotating out five brigades comprised of thousands of soldiers, the Israeli military believes it can better address the "different characteristics and different operational needs" Hagari explained, insisting the war would "require lengthy fighting" throughout the coming year.

In spite of Hagari's prediction of more fighting to come, Israel's announcement that it would withdraw troops from active combat was taken by many as a sign that the war which has already claimed the lives of over 20,000 Palestinians — the majority estimated to be civilians — may be entering a new, if uncertain phase. At the same time, the drone-conducted assassination of a top Hamas figure in Lebanon on Tuesday — widely believed to be Israel's doing — threatens to expand the scope of violence across the region, with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati accusing Israel of trying to "drag Lebanon into" the conflict.

With the entire Middle East on edge over the spiraling violence in Gaza, what do these troop reductions, and cross-border skirmishes mean for Israel, Palestine, and the region as a whole?

What the commentators said

Israel's troop redeployments are part of a broader effort to determine "how to sustain lower-intensity fighting over the long term," according to The Wall Street Journal. The reshuffling of soldiers is a sign that Israel has "largely transitioned from offensive to consolidation efforts," military analyst Ofer Shelah told the paper, explaining that after a massive offensive push, "to stay there with so many soldiers is what guerrilla forces want you to do."

Domestically, the demobilization and reshuffling will "ease pressure on Israel’s workforce and its economy," the Journal reported, echoing The Times of Israel's report that the return of a large number of reservists to civilian life will "help bounce back the economy" as well as allow for better training and promotion of soldiers. Reuters estimated that the 300,000 reservists initially called up for the war in Gaza represent some 10-15% of the overall Israeli workforce.

The withdrawal of what is estimated to be thousands of soldiers from Gaza (Israel has yet to disclose exact numbers) should nevertheless not be mistaken for a sign that Israel is winding down its effort to defeat Hamas, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops this week, according to NPR. Suggestions to the contrary, Gallant said, were simply "wrong." At the same time, the demobilization and shifting of resources toward a more limited scope of action have been exactly what President Joe Biden's administration has been "pushing for," according to one U.S. official who spoke with NBC News.

The troop withdrawal is a "clear signal that the fight is entering a new phase in line with" American requests, Lt. Gen. Mark Schwartz, the former U.S. security coordinator between Israel and Palestine, told The New York Times. It also comes just days after American and Israeli officials met to discuss shifting the broad Israeli offensive into a narrower push to "maximize focus on high-value Hamas targets," the Times reported.

What next?

Some of the demobilized brigades are being shifted in anticipation of a potential escalation of violence on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, an Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. At the same time, the redeployments and withdrawals are part of a process that "will take six months at least, and involve intense mopping-up missions against the terrorists" in Gaza, the official explained.

Ultimately some experts worry that this shift in focus could "allow Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities and infrastructure," according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project obtained by The Jerusalem Post. That a number of the Hamas military commanders killed "led their units for many years," suggests they also had the "ability and time to develop successors to take their place." That level of reconstitution would be "inconsistent with the stated Israeli war aims, which are to destroy Hamas militarily and politically," the groups concluded.

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>>> USS Gerald R. Ford to Leave the Eastern Mediterranean, ABC Says


Bloomberg

by Max Zimmerman

12-30-23


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uss-gerald-r-ford-to-leave-the-eastern-mediterranean-abc-says/ar-AA1mhK6o?cvid=17aa67910fd14b298c8616389da76fa6&ei=152


(Bloomberg) -- The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group will leave the eastern Mediterranean Sea more than two months after being sent to the region following Hamas’ attack on Israel in October, ABC News reported.

The carrier and other surface ships that form the strike group will head back to their home port of Norfolk, Virginia, in the “coming days” as originally scheduled, a senior US official and a US official told the outlet. The carrier group is returning to the US to prepare for future deployments.

The US will still have military capability in the region and flexibility to deploy additional cruisers and destroyers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, the senior US official told ABC.

A Defense Department spokesman told ABC that they had nothing to announce today.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin directed the naval group to the region the day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. The carrier was sent to the region to bolster regional deterrence, Austin said at the time, in an effort to prevent the conflict from widening into a wider regional one.

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>>> U.S. strikes Iran-backed militias in Iraq after troops are wounded in drone attack


Washington Post

Story by Niha Masih, Mustafa Salim, Alex Horton

12-26-23


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-strikes-iran-backed-militias-in-iraq-after-troops-are-wounded-in-drone-attack/ar-AA1m2qb1


U.S. forces launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Monday after a drone attack that injured three service members, the Pentagon said, the latest response to dozens of aerial assaults against U.S. personnel in the Middle East that the Defense Department has been unable to curtail.

American forces launched airstrikes against three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups linked to Iran, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement, in response to an attack on U.S. personnel stationed at Irbil air base that left one service member critically injured.

The militant attack was launched by a one-way explosive drone, a U.S. defense official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The retaliatory strikes “likely killed a number of Kataib Hezbollah militants,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement. There were “no indications that any civilian lives were affected,” the statement said.

U.S. troops stationed at bases in Iraq and Syria have been attacked more than 100 times by Iranian-backed militias since Oct. 17, according to Pentagon data, in what those groups have said is a response to U.S. support for Israel and its ground operation in Gaza. The U.S. airstrikes launched Monday were “intended to disrupt and degrade capabilities of the Iran-aligned militia groups directly responsible,” Austin said. However, similar responses have not weakened the ability of militants to hit U.S. installations at will.

Iranian-backed militias continued their attacks into Tuesday. A U.S. destroyer and fighter jets shot down 12 one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land-attack cruise missiles in the southern Red Sea, Central Command said, all of which were fired in a 10-hour period by Houthi fighters in Yemen. The attacks and shoot-downs did not cause damage to ships or injuries, the command said.

The Biden administration has been wary of taking a more aggressive approach, with officials citing concern that if Iran is more directly confronted, it could widen the regional conflagration.

“While we do not seek to escalate conflict in the region, we are committed and fully prepared to take further necessary measures to protect our people and our facilities,” Austin said in the statement.

The Pentagon has defended the response as “deliberate,” and said most of the attacks on U.S. troops are off-target — occasionally damaging infrastructure and leading to minor injuries, if any. However, the critical injury to a U.S. service member in Monday’s attack appears to be the most serious reported since the assaults sharply rose in October. About 3,500 U.S. troops remain in Iraq and Syria to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State extremist group. Iran has long backed militias in an effort to dislodge the U.S. presence in the region.

“The President places no higher priority than the protection of American personnel serving in harm’s way,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. “The United States will act at a time and in a manner of our choosing should these attacks continue.”

Other operations in the Middle East have challenged the administration’s assertion that Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza has not triggered a larger conflict.

Israel killed a high-ranking Iranian general in an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, on Monday, the Associated Press reported, citing reports by Iranian state media. Turkey launched strikes into Syria and Iraq, attacking Kurdish fighters in retaliation for the deaths of Turkish soldiers over the weekend. Houthi militants have launched brazen attacks in the Red Sea, including the shoot-down of a U.S. drone and the hijacking of a commercial ship. Those incidents and others prompted the United States and partners to reinforce a multinational naval task force to protect ships transiting the Suez Canal and operating in waters around the eastern Arabian Peninsula.

A senior Kataib Hezbollah official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the group has launched operations against American forces in Iraq partly because of the United States’ support for Israel in its war with Hamas, and partly because the group considers the U.S. presence in Iraq an “occupation.”

“Our operations will continue until the departure of the last American soldier,” the official said.

In a statement Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned the drone attack and the U.S. response, which he said killed one Iraqi service member and injured 18 others, including civilians.

“This constitutes a clear hostile act. It runs counter to the pursuit of enduring mutual interests in establishing security and stability, and it opposes the declared intention of the American side to enhance relations with Iraq,” he said.

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>>> Iran threatens to shut Strait of Gibraltar as tensions ramp up


The Telegraph

by Jorg Luyken

December 23, 2023


https://news.yahoo.com/iran-threatens-shut-strait-gibraltar-172232802.html


Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea unless Israel stops bombing Gaza, as the US warned Tehran was “deeply involved” in attacks on shipping.

“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, [the Strait of] Gibraltar and other waterways,” Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior member of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today.

The general did not explain how Iran, which does not border the Mediterranean, intended to make good on its threat.

Iran’s proxy militias in southern Lebanon and Syria do have access to the sea, through which about a fifth of global maritime trade passes.

The Houthis in Yemen, which are backed by Iran, have already forced several major shipping companies to reroute their vessels to avoid the Red Sea by targeting merchant craft with drones and missiles.

On Saturday, a Liberian-flagged tanker was struck by a drone while it was sailing in the Arabian Sea off the coast of India, setting it on fire.

“Some structural damage was also reported and some water was taken onboard. The vessel was Israel-affiliated. She had last called at Saudi Arabia and was destined for India at the time,” British maritime security firm Ambrey said.

The fire was extinguished without any casualties being suffered by the crew.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the attack came amid a wave of drone and missile attacks carried out by the Houthis.

“Yesterday, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz became a nightmare for them, and today they are trapped ... in the Red Sea,” Brig Gen Naqdi said, describing “the birth of new powers of resistance”.

The Houthi leadership have described the attacks as retribution for Israel’s invasion of Gaza, which was run by another Tehran ally, Hamas.

They claim that the attacks are targeted against shipping headed for Israel; however, several ships which have been struck have no connection with Israel or the war.

On Friday, US intelligence accused Tehran of being “deeply involved” in the operational planning of the Red Sea attacks.

US intelligence suggests that Iran has been providing a monitoring system which is essential for the attacks, the National Security Council spokesman Adrienne Watson told US broadcaster CNN.

“Iran has the choice to provide or withhold this support, without which the Houthis would struggle to effectively track and strike commercial vessels navigating shipping lanes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” Ms Watson said.

Houthi attacks
“Iranian-provided tactical intelligence has been critical in enabling Houthi targeting of maritime vessels since the group commenced attacks in November,” she added.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister rejected the accusations that the country was involved in the Houthi attacks, saying the group was acting on its own.

“The resistance (Huthis) has its own tools... and acts in accordance with its own decisions and capabilities,” Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri told the country’s Mehr news agency.

“The fact that certain powers, such as the Americans and the Israelis, suffer strikes from the resistance movement... should in no way call into question the reality of the strength of the resistance in the region,” he added.

War on Israel

The Houthis, who have been fighting against Yemen’s government in a civil war since 2014, are part of an Iran-led “axis of resistance” against Israel, the US and the West.

The group’s leaders declared war on Israel last month, launching a salvo of drones and ballistic missiles at the southern Israeli city of Eilat more than 1,000 miles away.

Iran has repeatedly warned of a widening conflict, and last month, its foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the intensity of the war has rendered its expansion “inevitable”.

Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran sees it as “its duty to support the resistance groups” but insisted that they “are independent in their opinion, decision and action”.

Last month, Tehran dismissed as “invalid” Israel’s accusations that Houthi rebels were acting on Tehran’s “guidance” when they seized a Red Sea ship owned by an Israeli businessman.

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>>> The West is now at war with Iran and its proxies


The Telegraph

by Con Coughlin

12-21-23


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-west-is-now-at-war-with-iran-and-its-proxies/ar-AA1lPhcU?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=fcde320ab45741b8bb4b74e53eaeaf86&ei=51


It has been a recurring theme of Iran’s innate hostility towards the West that, irrespective of the ayatollahs’ constant threats, Tehran has invariably shied away from provoking a direct confrontation.

The last time the Iranians came face-to-face with Western firepower was in the dying days of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Desperate to turn the tide of the conflict in their favour, they attempted to starve the West of vital energy supplies by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Back then, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps was reduced to threatening international shipping by firing rocket-propelled grenades from rubber dinghies. Nevertheless, it was a tactic that succeeded in causing major disruption, prompting a short-lived spike in global oil prices.

Security was soon restored, though, after the US and its allies, including Britain, deployed a powerful armada of warships in the Gulf guaranteeing the safe passage of oil tankers passing through the Strait. Subsequent attempts by Iran to attack international shipping were easily repulsed, forcing the Iranians to abandon the tactic.

Since then, while Tehran has lost none of its deep-seated antagonism towards the West, it has adopted a more subtle approach, preferring to rely on its extensive network of proxies throughout the Middle East to do its dirty work.

As Western forces learnt to their cost during the recent conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, Iranian-backed militias were highly effective at killing and maiming significant numbers of American and British troops without requiring Tehran to involve itself directly.

Now Tehran is resorting to the same tactics again as it seeks to escalate the Gaza conflict into a wider regional war. It is encouraging groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to open new fronts in a bid to intensify the pressure on Israel and the US.

Iran’s official position, of course, is that it has no desire to provoke a direct confrontation with the US and its allies, a policy adopted after two US aircraft carrier battle groups were sent to the region after the October 7 attacks.

Tehran’s reluctance to involve itself openly in the Gaza conflict was clearly evident when the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in November and told him that Iran was not prepared to enter the war.

What Khamenei did not admit, however, was that Iran would instead encourage its numerous allies in the region to provoke further unrest, an approach that has resulted in the recent upsurge in attacks carried out by the Houthis and Hezbollah.

While, back in the 1980s, the Iranians ultimately failed in their attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, their interest in disrupting global trade – especially shipping carrying merchandise to the West – has not abated, leading them to develop a new generation of anti-ship missiles.

These weapons have been passed to Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are now employing them to target international trade routes in the Red Sea. Initially, the Houthis claimed that they were only interested in targeting vessels destined for Israel. More recently, though, they have expanded their attacks to include all shipping.

At the same time, Hezbollah has increased its militant activity on Israel’s northern border by specifically targeting the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system that has proved so effective at protecting Israeli civilians.

All this could have a significant impact on the global economy just when it was showing signs of recovering from the twin blows of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A number of leading shipping companies have responded to the deteriorating security situation in the Red Sea by rerouting their ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of risking their normal passage through the Suez Canal. Apart from adding a further two weeks to the shipping schedule, the disruption will inevitably result in higher costs that will be passed on to the consumer, which could worsen inflation.

So in effect, Iran – while claiming that it does not seek a direct confrontation – has declared war on the West by helping the Houthis to attack global shipping routes.

It is a challenge, moreover, that the West must address, rather than resorting to the equivocation that has so often defined its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Like Russia, Iran is a hostile state that will only be deterred if the Western powers demonstrate strength and resolve. Iran and its Houthi sidekicks are no match for the powerful armada of Western warships that have assembled in the Red Sea, as has been demonstrated by the ease with which Houthi missiles have been shot down.

Just as happened in the Strait of Hormuz in the 1980s, forcing Iran and its allies to back down is the only sure way to enable global shipping through the Red Sea to return to normal.

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>>> Honeywell International Inc. (HON)


https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/5-best-mario-gabelli-stocks-other-billionaires-are-also-piling-into-1235826/4/


Number of Billionaire Investors In Q3 2023: 16

Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ:HON) is an engineering technology company that provides a wide variety of advanced products such as engine controls, radars, and bullet resistant armor. The firm is currently busy diversifying its business, and it plans to buy a security business for a $4.9 billion price tag for this purpose.

During 2023’s September quarter, 60 out of the 910 hedge funds surveyed by Insider Monkey had invested in the company. Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ:HON)’s biggest hedge fund investor is Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson’s Adage Capital Management as it owns 1.8 million shares that are worth $346 million.

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>>> Biden warns Israel it is ‘losing support’ over war


The New York Times

by Michael D. Shear

December 12, 2023


https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-losing-support-biden-says-185717915.html


WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden told Israel’s leaders on Tuesday that they were losing international support for their war in the Gaza Strip, exposing a widening rift with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who rejected out of hand the American vision for a postwar resolution to the conflict.

Biden delivered the blunt assessment of America’s closest ally in the Middle East during a fundraiser in Washington, where he described Netanyahu as the leader of “the most conservative government in Israel’s history,” which doesn’t “want anything remotely approaching a two-state solution” to the country’s long-running dispute with Palestinians.

The president said that Israel had support from Europe and much of the world as well as the United States, but he added that “they’re starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place.”

The president’s remarks came hours after Netanyahu pledged to defy weeks of American pressure to put the Palestinian Authority in charge of Gaza once the fighting ends. Netanyahu ruled out any role there for the group, which now governs Palestinian society in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Until Tuesday, the United States had largely backed Israel both in action and in rhetoric — supporting the assault on Gaza, fending off calls for a cease-fire at the United Nations and authorizing the sale of thousands of tank shells to the Israelis.

“There is disagreement about ‘the day after Hamas,’” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on social media. He said he hoped the two governments could reach an agreement about what happens after the war ends, but he vowed not to allow threats to Israel’s population to continue.

“After the great sacrifice of our civilians and our soldiers, I will not allow the entry into Gaza of those who educate for terrorism, support terrorism and finance terrorism,” Netanyahu said. “Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan.”

Fatah is the political faction, a rival to Hamas, that controls the Palestinian Authority, which was ousted from Gaza in 2007 but still administers parts of the West Bank.

In his remarks at the fundraiser, Biden pledged to continue that support for Israel’s effort to protect itself, saying that “we’re not going to do a damn thing other than protect Israel in the process. Not a single thing.”

“Without Israel as a free-standing state, not a Jew in the world is safe,” he added.

But he also described his response to Netanyahu’s private assertion that the United States had “carpet-bombed” Germany and dropped the atomic bomb on Japan.

“I said, ‘Yeah, that’s why all these institutions were set up after World War II, to see to it that it didn’t happen again,’” Biden told the donors at the event.

Hours earlier, Netanyahu appeared to take note of the months of American support in his address.

“I greatly appreciate the American support for destroying Hamas and returning our hostages,” Netanyahu said. “Following an intensive dialogue with President Biden and his team, we received full backing for the ground incursion and blocking the international pressure to stop the war.”

But the tone from both men suggested that the well-wishing could soon end.

Biden’s remarks were his most critical to date of Netanyahu’s handling of the war, which continues to claim the lives of thousands of civilians in Gaza. The two men had declared unshakable unity during Biden’s visit to Israel days after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Oct. 7 and killed 1,200 people.

Nearly two months of aerial bombardment by Israel and a continuing ground war have leveled much of Gaza City in the northern part of the tiny enclave, which is home to nearly 2 million Palestinians. More than 15,000 people, including several thousand children, have been killed in Gaza during the fighting, according to the territory’s health authorities.

The United Nations says that more than 85% of the population has been displaced, with some aid organizations reporting rampant disease and widespread hunger.

Netanyahu says his government is determined to destroy Hamas’ ability to threaten Israel’s population, and he has repeatedly warned Palestinians to move south. Some locations in the south of Gaza have also been bombed, drawing criticism from humanitarian organizations.

Fighting between Israeli forces and armed groups raged near a small hospital in northern Gaza on Monday and over the weekend. The hospital, Kamal Adwan, has 65 patients, including 12 children in intensive care, and is surrounded by Israeli troops and tanks, according to a report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The report said that the hospital’s maternity department had been hit Monday and that, “as a result, two mothers were reportedly killed, and several people were injured.” It was not possible to verify the toll. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Top aides to Biden have said the president believes that his full-throated support of Israel has given him more leverage to press Netanyahu for restraint as Israel conducts its ground war in Gaza. He has repeatedly described his decadeslong history with Israel; Monday evening, he declared at a White House Hanukkah reception: “I am a Zionist.”

Last month, Biden and his top foreign policy aides helped broker a temporary pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid and the release of more than 100 of the roughly 240 hostages that Hamas seized on Oct. 7.

White House officials said Biden would meet at the White House on Wednesday with the families of Americans taken hostage by Hamas, his first face-to-face meeting with the relatives since the crisis began.

A White House official confirmed the meeting, but did not offer details about how many of the family members would attend the meeting in person. The president previously spoke with the families on a video call about a week after the attacks.

Biden administration officials have indicated there are about eight remaining hostages with American citizenship after several were released, including during a weeklong pause in fighting last month.

Biden’s public message has evolved since the Oct. 7 attacks. He publicly urged Israel to do more to protect civilians in Gaza in its war against Hamas, and White House officials have said he has been blunt with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials during private conversations.

But the president has largely left it to other American officials, including Vice President Kamala Harris, to call out Israel for its actions on the battlefield. And his comments Tuesday were the president’s first direct acknowledgment of the condemnation by world leaders and humanitarian organizations of Israel’s wartime behavior.

Using the prime minister’s nickname, Biden said that “Bibi’s got a tough decision to make.”

The rising tension between the two men underscored the sensitive moment for the two allies as Biden seeks to persuade lawmakers in Washington to support more than $15 billion in additional aid for Israel’s military campaign. That funding is currently caught up in a political dispute with Republicans over assistance for Ukraine and immigration policy changes at the U.S. border.

Biden has repeatedly asserted Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism by Hamas, and his administration on Friday vetoed a legally binding United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire in the war. On Tuesday, the U.N. General Assembly voted in favor of a nonbinding resolution making the same demand. The United States and Israel were among the 10 countries that opposed it; 153 countries approved.

But on Monday, administration officials said they were looking into reports that Israel’s military had deployed white phosphorus supplied by the United States along the border with Lebanon, in violation of international law.

That allegation, made in reports by Amnesty International and The Washington Post, represented another potential disagreement between the two countries about Israel’s conduct. Israel’s military on Monday said it complies with international law and denied using the weapon illegally.

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said the United States would be “asking questions” about the incident. White phosphorus is an incendiary, toxic substance used to create light and smoke screens during combat. Its use is not illegal, but deploying it deliberately against civilians or in a civilian setting violates the laws of war.

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>>> US threatens ‘appropriate responses’ after Iran-backed assault on commercial ships


Politico

by Lara Seligman


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-threatens-appropriate-responses-after-iran-backed-assault-on-commercial-ships/ar-AA1kWgo9?cvid=ca0738ff33f64533947b764a57e7d0bb&ei=7


The U.S. warned it was considering “all appropriate responses” after Houthi rebels attacked three commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday, ramping up its rhetoric as Iran-backed militants continue to harass American and international interests in the region.

Following the attacks, a U.S. warship operating nearby responded to the distress calls from the commercial ships, shooting down three aerial drones over the course of the day, U.S. Central Command said in a release.

While Defense Department officials said they did not believe the militants were targeting the U.S. warship — the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Carney — the string of attacks on the commercial vessels “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” Central Command said.

While the attacks were carried out by Houthis, the U.S. has “every reason to believe” they were “fully enabled by Iran,” according to the release. “The United States will consider all appropriate responses in full coordination with its international allies and partners.”

The language is an explicit threat to Iran that the U.S. may retaliate to the attacks, which are just the latest in the region in recent weeks. Iran-backed militants have also attacked U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria at least 74 times since Oct. 17.

Sunday saw a total of four attacks against three separate commercial vessels linked to 14 separate nations, Central Command said. The Carney, which was conducting a patrol in the Red Sea, responded to the ships’ distress calls, shooting down three drones in total.

At 9:15 a.m. local time, the Carney detected an anti-ship ballistic missile fired from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen targeting the M/V Unity Explorer, a Bahamian-flagged, UK-owned and operated bulk cargo ship. The missile came down “in the vicinity of the vessel.”

Then at 12 p.m., the Carney shot down a drone launched from Yemen. While the drone was headed toward the ship, Central Command said it “cannot assess at this time” that the Carney was the target. There was no damage to the vessel or injuries to its crew.

At 12:35 p.m., the Carney responded to a distress call from the Unity Explorer, which reported it was struck by a missile fired by the Houthis. While assisting with the damage assessment to the commercial ship, the Carney detected a second drone, and took it down.

At 3:30 p.m., the M/V Number 9, a Panamanian-flagged, Bermuda and UK-owned and operated bulk carrier, was then struck by a missile fired by the Houthis while operating in the Red Sea.

An hour later, at 4:30 p.m., the M/V Sophie II, a Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier, crewed by sailors from eight countries, sent a distress call saying it was struck by a missile. While en route to respond, the Carney shot down another aerial drone headed in its direction.

Commercial shipping has increasingly come under assault in the Red Sea since the Israel-Hamas conflict kicked off on Oct. 7.

The Carney has shot down multiple Houthi-launched cruise missiles and drones targeting commercial vessels in recent weeks. Although DOD officials do not assess the U.S. ship was the target of any of the attacks, the commander deemed some of them a threat and acted in self-defense.

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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal Welcomes Talented New Sales Representatives to Directly Market Advanced Riot Control and Other Crisis Response Products

Source: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal

SARNIA, ON / November 27, 2023 -- Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK:LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, has added two new Sales Representatives who are experienced and well versed in modern marketing techniques. These new additions to the Lamperd team will be making direct marketing efforts to raise awareness and close sales on the company’s full product line of advanced less lethal products which are optimized for effectiveness and safety in applications for riot control and other crisis response situations.

Maria Edison holds an Honors Bachelor of Commerce Degree from McMaster University. She served as a Market Analyst as well as a Media and Communications Resident for multiple international clients. Ms. Edison has sales experience on multicultural teams, supporting business-to-business and business-to-consumer sales efforts. She is multi-lingual utilizing English, French, Russian and Mandarin Chinese language skills to provide personalized service to a range of international clients.

Daniel Almeida holds an Honors Bachelor of Philosophy Degree from McMaster University. He served as President of the McMaster University Shooting Sports Club, where he secured sponsorships and organized shooting events for 100+ club members. An avid shooter, Mr. Almeida competes in shooting competitions in South Ontario and sells firearms from his personal collection. His experience and expertise in the field of firearms and shooting provides an excellent correlation to the Lamperd product line.

CEO Barry Lamperd stated, “With the rising need for effective security solutions we continue to see today in response to crisis situations of every kind, Lamperd certainly can use the direct sales and marketing contributions of Maria Edison and Daniel Almeida at this time. Both of these new Sales Representatives will be raising awareness in the security products market place about the wide range of solutions that the Lamperd Less Lethal line offers, with special emphasis on our company’s advantages of highest quality, versatility, effectiveness and safety. I am looking forward to working closely with both Maria and Daniel as they begin their efforts to reach out to security products customers on all levels with the aim of closing new sales in the most efficient way for everyone involved.”

About Lamperd Less Lethal:

Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 12 Gauge, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and a variety of different riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors. For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com

This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.
Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public
the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli

>>> More than a million Palestinians in Gaza are now displaced; why are Arab countries not opening their doors?


Fox News

11-19-23


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/more-than-a-million-palestinians-in-gaza-are-now-displaced-why-are-arab-countries-not-opening-their-doors/ar-AA1kb6iY?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=0306e407e1e545e88741cb5ffcd630d5&ei=62


JERUSALEM — At a summit of leaders from more than 50 Arab and Muslim states held last weekend in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Israel’s military response in Gaza following Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre was fiercely condemned.

But what was missing from the gathering’s final statement was any immediate solution for the 2.3 million civilians of the Palestinian enclave, more than half of whom are now internally displaced after nearly six weeks of fighting.

While the final resolution called for an immediate end to "the brutal Israeli aggression on Gaza" and made offers of humanitarian and financial aid to the Palestinians, not one country came forward with a viable solution, even temporarily, for the 1.5 million civilians who, according to the latest U.N. figures, are now internally displaced in the southern section of the Strip.

As the death toll in Gaza rises, thousands of civilians continue to flee the conflict and head southward, where the Israeli military has said it is safer and where truckloads of food, water, and medicine arrive daily via the Rafah Crossing with Egypt. The U.N. estimates 250,000 fled in the past week alone.

Some have questioned why nearby Arab countries, who have provided temporary shelter in the past to civilians from other regional conflicts, appear unwilling to even discuss sheltering the refugees from Gaza.

"Arab states have historically been divided with regard to their stance on the Palestinian people and numerous other significant issues," Ahed Al-Hindi, a senior fellow at the Center for Peace Communications, told Fox News Digital. "Although these states project solidarity with the Palestinian people, they hold divergent views on the most effective course of action.

"Certain countries, including those in the Arab Gulf, Jordan, Morocco and Egypt advocate for a two-state solution, which they believe can be accomplished through diplomacy. Conversely, the Iranian axis espouses the ideology of obliterating Israel and establishing a Palestinian state extending from the river to the sea."

Al-Hindi said the primary reason why even the moderate states, most of which have diplomatic ties with Israel, have not taken practical steps to help the civilian population in Gaza is due to their aversion to Hamas and its goals.

"As a result, many Arab countries are concerned that aiding the Gazans could inadvertently benefit Hamas, given that the organization has ruled in Gaza for nearly a generation," he said. "Hamas is a network affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Muslim Brotherhood opposes every Arab monarch. This poses significant internal risks to the aforementioned states.

"Ideologies of the Muslim Brotherhood advocate for the overthrow of Arab monarchies and the formation of a Sunni revolutionary Islamic republic, which would resemble Iran but operate under the banner of Sunni jihadism," Al-Hindi added. "Since Hamas serves as an agent for Iran, which in turn presents an additional danger to Arab monarchs, the majority of these nations are worried that their assistance to Gaza may fall into the clutches of Hamas."

The two Arab countries bordering Israel on either side — Egypt and Jordan — have both pointedly refused to offer refuge to any number of Palestinians from Gaza, even though Jordan already has a large Palestinian population and Egypt’s expansive and sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula is just a few miles from where the thousands of Palestinians are now being cared for by international aid agencies.

Earlier this month, Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly dismissed calls for displaced Palestinians to resettle in the Sinai desert, saying his country would protect its land and sovereignty at any cost. His comments came following the revelation of an Israeli intelligence document proposing that residents of the Strip be evacuated to tent cities in Sinai as the Israeli military works to destroy Hamas.

"We are ready to sacrifice millions of lives to protect our territory from any encroachment," Madbouly said in a recent speech, advocating that a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians was the only comprehensive resolution that would guarantee regional peace.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that such a solution should have been touted by the international community at the onset of the war.

"Washington should have made the humanitarian argument, helped fund a camp for Gaza refugees in Sinai and guaranteed their return after the end of the war," he said. "This would have convinced Egyptians to take them."

Still, said Abdul-Hussain, both Jordan and Egypt also have their own domestic concerns driving their refusal to offer refuge to Palestinians now displaced due to the fighting.

"Jordan is not an option," he said, adding that it does not border Gaza, and logistically it is not feasible to move hundreds of thousands of Gazans there.

Egypt’s resistance, Abdul-Hussain said, stems from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's view of Hamas, a Palestinian off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Egyptian leader has been fighting since he came to power.

"Transplanting Gazans, with thousands of possible Hamas cadres or partisans, into his Sinai, where he battled ISIS, might scare the Egyptians a bit," he explained. Hussain also pointed out that even if Egypt did want to take in the Gazan refugees, the country’s financial instability made it impossible.

While the practical arguments presented by these two Arab countries are plausible, there is also a deeper, ideological and even emotional reason rooted in the region’s history, mostly dating back to Israel’s creation in 1948. In fact, many of the images coming out of Gaza in recent days, with columns of shabbily dressed and clearly shaken civilians trekking miles on foot to reach safety in the south, have been compared to what Palestinians refer to as the Nakba, or "catastrophe," when an estimated 700,000 Palestinians chose to leave their homes or were forced to flee to neighboring countries during Israel’s war for independence.

"The Arab world, particularly countries like Egypt and Jordan, have found themselves in a very uncomfortable situation," said Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and head of intelligence at Leo Beck International. "They need to show support for Palestinians in Gaza because a large majority of the Arab public sympathizes with the Palestinian cause. But there is not much they can do beyond token statements of support and limited aid."

Horowitz said the notion of Egypt or Jordan hosting Palestinian refugees was a "non-starter."

"Doing so would actually anger the pro-Palestinian segments of their population, who would feel that they are actively facilitating a "second Nakba," he said, adding that such a move would be so unpopular among the public it could even destabilize some of those countries.

"Arab states feel they should not be held responsible for Israel's conflict with the Palestinians, which to them stands at the origin of much that ails the region," said Joost Hilterman, program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. "To them, Israel, as the occupying power, has absolute responsibility for the welfare of the Palestinian population."

Hilterman also noted that the Palestinians "do not want to leave Palestine and become refugees again, and both Egypt and the Palestinian population of Gaza fear that the temporary will become permanent, especially if Israel renders Gaza uninhabitable, which it is well on its way in doing."

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>>> An Iranian nuclear facility is so deep underground that US airstrikes likely couldn’t reach it


Associated Press

BY JON GAMBRELL

May 22, 2023


https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0


DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Near a peak of the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, workers are building a nuclear facility so deep in the earth that it is likely beyond the range of a last-ditch U.S. weapon designed to destroy such sites, according to experts and satellite imagery analyzed by The Associated Press.

The photos and videos from Planet Labs PBC show Iran has been digging tunnels in the mountain near the Natanz nuclear site, which has come under repeated sabotage attacks amid Tehran’s standoff with the West over its atomic program.

With Iran now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers, the installation complicates the West’s efforts to halt Tehran from potentially developing an atomic bomb as diplomacy over its nuclear program remains stalled.

Completion of such a facility “would be a nightmare scenario that risks igniting a new escalatory spiral,” warned Kelsey Davenport, the director of nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association. “Given how close Iran is to a bomb, it has very little room to ratchet up its program without tripping U.S. and Israeli red lines. So at this point, any further escalation increases the risk of conflict.”

The construction at the Natanz site comes five years after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the nuclear accord. Trump argued the deal did not address Tehran’s ballistic missile program, nor its support of militias across the wider Middle East.

But what it did do was strictly limit Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 3.67% purity, powerful enough only to power civilian power stations, and keep its stockpile to just some 300 kilograms (660 pounds).

Since the demise of the nuclear accord, Iran has said it is enriching uranium up to 60%, though inspectors recently discovered the country had produced uranium particles that were 83.7% pure. That is just a short step from reaching the 90% threshold of weapons-grade uranium.

As of February, international inspectors estimated Iran’s stockpile was over 10 times what it was under the Obama-era deal, with enough enriched uranium to allow Tehran to make “several” nuclear bombs, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

President Joe Biden and Israel’s prime minister have said they won’t allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon. “We believe diplomacy is the best way to achieve that goal, but the president has also been clear that we have not removed any option from the table,” the White House said in a statement to the AP.

The Islamic Republic denies it is seeking nuclear weapons, though officials in Tehran now openly discuss their ability to pursue one.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations, in response to questions from the AP regarding the construction, said that “Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities are transparent and under the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.” However, Iran has been limiting access for international inspectors for years.

Iran says the new construction will replace an above-ground centrifuge manufacturing center at Natanz struck by an explosion and fire in July 2020. Tehran blamed the incident on Israel, long suspected of running sabotage campaigns against its program.

Tehran has not acknowledged any other plans for the facility, though it would have to declare the site to the IAEA if they planned to introduce uranium into it. The Vienna-based IAEA did not respond to questions about the new underground facility.

The new project is being constructed next to Natanz, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) south of Tehran. Natanz has been a point of international concern since its existence became known two decades ago.

Protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, the facility sprawls across 2.7 square kilometers (1 square mile) in the country’s arid Central Plateau.

Satellite photos taken in April by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by the AP show Iran burrowing into the Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or “Pickaxe Mountain,” which is just beyond Natanz’s southern fencing.

A different set of images analyzed by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies reveals that four entrances have been dug into the mountainside, two to the east and another two to the west. Each is 6 meters (20 feet) wide and 8 meters (26 feet) tall.

The scale of the work can be measured in large dirt mounds, two to the west and one to the east. Based on the size of the spoil piles and other satellite data, experts at the center told AP that Iran is likely building a facility at a depth of between 80 meters (260 feet) and 100 meters (328 feet). The center’s analysis, which it provided exclusively to AP, is the first to estimate the tunnel system’s depth based on satellite imagery.

The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based nonprofit long focused on Iran’s nuclear program, suggested last year the tunnels could go even deeper.

Experts say the size of the construction project indicates Iran likely would be able to use the underground facility to enrich uranium as well — not just to build centrifuges. Those tube-shaped centrifuges, arranged in large cascades of dozens of machines, rapidly spin uranium gas to enrich it. Additional cascades spinning would allow Iran to quickly enrich uranium under the mountain’s protection.

“So the depth of the facility is a concern because it would be much harder for us. It would be much harder to destroy using conventional weapons, such as like a typical bunker buster bomb,” said Steven De La Fuente, a research associate at the center who led the analysis of the tunnel work.

The new Natanz facility is likely to be even deeper underground than Iran’s Fordo facility, another enrichment site that was exposed in 2009 by U.S. and other world leaders. That facility sparked fears in the West that Iran was hardening its program from airstrikes.

Such underground facilities led the U.S. to create the GBU-57 bomb, which can plow through at least 60 meters (200 feet) of earth before detonating, according to the American military. U.S. officials reportedly have discussed using two such bombs in succession to ensure a site is destroyed. It is not clear that such a one-two punch would damage a facility as deep as the one at Natanz.

With such bombs potentially off the table, the U.S. and its allies are left with fewer options to target the site. If diplomacy fails, sabotage attacks may resume.

Already, Natanz has been targeted by the Stuxnet virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation, which destroyed Iranian centrifuges. Israel also is believed to have killed scientists involved in the program, struck facilities with bomb-carrying drones and launched other attacks. Israel’s government declined to comment.

Experts say such disruptive actions may push Tehran even closer to the bomb — and put its program even deeper into the mountain where airstrikes, further sabotage and spies may not be able to reach it.

“Sabotage may roll back Iran’s nuclear program in the short-term, but it is not a viable, long-term strategy for guarding against a nuclear-armed Iran,” said Davenport, the nonproliferation expert. “Driving Iran’s nuclear program further underground increases the proliferation risk.”

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$LLLI: Lamperd Less Lethal Welcomes Intersec as an Authorized Distributor of its Advanced Security Solutions for Riot Control and Crisis Response Products in Mexico and Other Countries

SARNIA, ON / October 17, 2023/ Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (OTC PINK:LLLI), an innovation leader and manufacturer of advanced security solutions for law enforcement, military and security agencies worldwide, is pleased to announce the signing of an agreement with Intersec, (http://www.intersec.com.mx/). This new agreement shall be for sales and distribution of the full Lamperd product line and training services to law enforcement, military and other government authorized agencies in Mexico and other countries around the world.

Intersec is a well established Mexican company founded in 1974, dedicated to meeting the needs of the Defense, Public and Private Security market. During this period of more than forty-eight years, the marketing policy of quality products and good service allowed Intersec to consolidate, thus obtaining recognition both in Mexico and abroad as a serious and professional marketing company representing multiple top security industry manufacturers. Intersec has already listed Lamperd Less Lethal as one of its key product suppliers on its website and is now actively marketing the Lamperd product line, especially for specific situations where less lethal solutions are needed such as the Mexican-USA boarder.

One of the reasons that Intersec elected to carry the Lamperd line is that Lamperd Less Lethal can deliver completed orders on a very timely basis as we perform all manufacturing in-house at our fully equipped and well staffed plant in Ontario, Canada with no outsourcing needed. Lamperd also has established very dependable local sources for all raw materials needed. Therefore, Lamperd can offer superior order fulfillment, generally in a matter of weeks as opposed to many months or even over a year, as is the case with other suppliers at this time.

CEO Barry Lamperd stated, “We are very much looking forward to developing our new marketing relationship with Intersec which is a well positioned and well connected distribution company with many active customers in Mexico and other countries. There has never been a time when effective security solutions were needed more. The Lamperd line is ready to meet all of Intersec’s needs as it has been painstakingly developed and optimized for effectiveness and safety in every type of crisis situation. We will issue further updates as we progress.”

See the full Lamperd Less Lethal product line and training services available at http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com.

About Lamperd Less Lethal:
Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. (LLLI) is a developer, manufacturer and international sales company for advanced less lethal weapons, ammunition and other security products marketed to police, correctional, military and private security forces. The company manufactures and sells over 300 different products including small & large caliber projectile guns, flash-bang devices, pepper spray devices, 12 Gauge, 37mm & 40mm launching systems and a variety of different riot shields. Lamperd also offers advisory services and hands-on training classes run by highly accredited instructors.
For more information visit: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com

This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc. undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes in future operating results.

Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: This news release includes forward-looking statements. While these statements are made to convey to the public
the company's progress, business opportunities and growth prospects, readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements represent management's opinion. Whereas management believes such representations to be true and accurate based on information and data available to the company at this time, actual results may differ materially from those described. The company's operations and business prospects are always subject to risk and uncertainties. Important factors that may cause actual results to differ are and will be set forth in the company's periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Contact: Lamperd Less Lethal, Inc.
Barry Lamperd, President & CEO
(519) 344-4445
Email: info@lamperdlesslethal.com or sales@lamperdlesslethal.com
Company Website: http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com
Lamperd Less Lethal on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lamperdlesslethal
Lamperd Less Lethal on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/LLLI_LessLethal
Barry Lamperd on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/lamperd_llli

SOURCE:
https://facebook.com/stories/100984452051158/UzpfSVNDOjI2MzU0OTQ0MTY2MDU5NzU=/?view_single=false

>>> Ukraine uses secretly shipped U.S. missiles to launch surprise strike


by Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Veronika Melkozerova

October 17, 2023


https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-uses-secretly-shipped-u-134918099.html


The Ukrainian military on Tuesday used U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles to strike nine Russian helicopters in eastern Ukraine, after Washington secretly shipped the weapons in recent weeks.

The delivery and use on the battlefield, confirmed by two people familiar with the move, marks a major ramp up of the administration’s defense of Ukraine, for the first time providing Kyiv’s forces with the ability to strike Russian targets far behind the front lines.

President Joe Biden had been hesitant to deliver the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, for fear of escalating the conflict. The transfer indicates the administration’s calculus has changed after a slow-moving Ukrainian counteroffensive. The two people who confirmed the transfer and usage in Ukraine were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news that the missile had been transferred and used.

The acknowledgment that the ATACMS are in Ukrainian hands and already in use comes after months of secrecy around Biden’s decision to send the longer-range weapons. Ukraine announced Tuesday that its forces had destroyed nine Russian helicopters, as well as other military equipment, in an attack on the cities of Berdyansk and Luhansk in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian special forces early on Tuesday struck two Russian military airfields, saying they successfully destroyed nine Russian military helicopters, an anti-aircraft missile system, and an ammunition warehouse.

The attacks took place in occupied Berdyansk, a southern city in the Zaporizhzhia region; and at an airfield in Luhansk, an occupied city in eastern Ukraine.

The special forces also managed to successfully damage airfield runways, Ukraine said, in what it called “Operation Dragonfly.”

“The ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated until 4 a.m. The detonation in Luhansk continued until 11 a.m. Losses in the enemy’s manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble,” Ukrainian Special Operations Forces said in a statement.

Biden relayed his decision to send the missiles during a Sept. 21 White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Biden said Ukraine would get a version of ATACMS, if not the long-range variant Kyiv had sought for so long, but it was unclear when, exactly, the weapons would be in Ukrainian hands.

The decision also comes as the administration has grown concerned about a Russian buildup of troops and equipment for a fall offensive, in what could be the largest Russian movement in months.

Russian forces have launched a series of mostly unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region over the past week, but have been repelled with large losses. The Russians have resorted to the relatively crude tactics of its earliest assaults in February 2022, one of the people acknowledged, throwing lightly equipped forces against Ukrainian lines in attacks that have been repulsed by the Ukrainian defenders.

More attacks along the hundreds of miles of Ukrainian front lines are expected in the coming weeks, making it critical that Ukraine has the longer-range ATACMS to hit airfields and ammunition depots to blunt any Russian logistical advantages.

The news could end more than a year of criticism from pro-Ukraine advocates who argued the U.S. should have delivered ATACMS to Ukraine much earlier. Kyiv wanted the missiles to more efficiently attack Russian targets inside Ukraine and launched an influence campaign to pressure the administration to hand them over.

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Rickards - >>> This Means War!


BY JAMES RICKARDS

OCTOBER 9, 2023


https://dailyreckoning.com/this-means-war/


This Means War!

The heavy attack on Israel this weekend by the Palestinian militant group Hamas has shocked the world. So far, about 1,500 people are confirmed dead. That number will only grow.

We don’t have many facts at this point, but it appears to be a massive intelligence failure by Israel. That in itself is shocking because Israeli intelligence is generally excellent.

It also suggests that Hamas is capable of highly sophisticated intelligence operations of its own, which allowed it to conceal the attacks, which were highly coordinated. The attacks came from air, land and sea.

Meanwhile, Israel has declared war on Hamas. What motivated the attack, which some people are calling Israel’s 9/11?

Again, we don’t have many facts yet. But some evidence is emerging. A Hamas spokesman has credited Iran with supporting and green-lighting the attacks. That’s not a smoking gun, but it’s entirely possible — even likely — that Iran’s fingerprints are on this operation.

Iran has supported Hamas for years in its efforts to undermine Israel. Why would Iran sponsor an attack on Israel now?

Iran Wants to Block Israeli-Saudi Peace Talks

The most compelling answer is to sabotage a potential peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s two greatest adversaries in the region. Iran wants to keep them divided. Israeli-Saudi talks had recently been making progress, so Tehran wanted to stop them in their tracks.

How does this weekend’s attack benefit Iran?

Saudi Arabia supports Palestinian independence. Iran hopes that the Hamas attack will generate a massive Israeli retaliation in Gaza, where Hamas is based. The Saudis would have to side with the Palestinians, which would drive a massive wedge between the Saudis and Israelis.

Tehran hasn’t hid its hostility to a potential Israeli-Saudi deal. Just last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei actually said that regional “countries that make the gamble of normalization with Israel will lose.”

That comment was aimed mostly toward the Saudis. And now, this weekend, Hamas attacks Israel.

Well, it appears that Iran’s gambit has worked. Today the Saudis informed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that they’re ending all negotiations on normalizing relations with Israel.

What if It Spreads?

The greater danger is that the conflict can spread. Iran also sponsors Hezbollah, the militant/terrorist group operating in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has launched limited attacks on Israel. If those attacks expand, Israel could be faced with a two-front war.

Israel could even attack Iran directly, which could trigger a regional war. We’ll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. But if Israel does ultimately engage in large-scale combat operations for an extended period, it might be constrained by ammunition shortages.

To help support Ukraine, earlier this year the U.S. reportedly sent Kyiv 300,000 155-millimeter artillery shells that had been stockpiled in Israel. Those shells were intended for the Israelis in case it needed them.

Israel may only have about 20% of that stockpile left. If Israel does end up waging a two-front campaign against Hamas in the west and Hezbollah in the north, that shortage could represent a serious issue.

Israel does have a very powerful air force that could drop a lot of ordinance, but bombs are much more expensive than artillery shells and can’t deliver the sustained firepower that only artillery can provide.

That just goes to show that the war in Ukraine has affected military balances in other regions around the world, as stockpiles have been whittled down to support Ukraine.

It’s also possible that this weekend’s attack not only represents a failure of Israeli intelligence, but U.S. intelligence. U.S. intelligence efforts have been so heavily focused on Ukraine, other regions have been neglected, including the Middle East.

The Economic Impact

We also have to consider the economic impact of this weekend’s attacks. Oil prices jumped 4% today, to over $86.

If the conflict spreads, it could dramatically increase oil prices. If oil shipments through the strategically pivotal Strait of Hormuz were shut down, it could result in a $20–30 increase in oil prices.

For a global economy already showing signs of weakness, such an increase in oil prices would easily tip economies into recession — including the U.S.’ The signs are already there.

The EU is already in recession and Japan and the U.K. are close to zero growth and heading toward recession fast. Within the EU, individual recessions have hit in Germany and Ireland, with Italy and France showing growth barely above zero.

Then there’s China. The idea of a real recession in China may seem incomprehensible, but we may be witnessing one. The “reopening” narrative following the end of the ridiculous Zero COVID policy was always a myth (and I said so last year) but Wall Street bought into it until the data made its failure undeniable.

Today, China is not only underperforming the narrative, it’s slipping close to actual contraction. The point is, the EU, China, Japan, the U.K. and others are in recession or close to it. Can the U.S. be far behind?

The U.S. Case

There are many signs that it is. Many are technical in nature and I won’t get into them today. It’s enough to say that all of the technical signs are unusual and all point in the direction of a recession. They all have good track records of predicting recessions going back to the 1970s and earlier depending on the time series.

One of the best signs of a recession is when more mainstream or middle-of-the-road economists start sounding the warning. There are perma-bears who call for recession constantly (and everyone who does that is right eventually; recessions do happen).

I’m not a perma-bear, but I do use predictive analytics to look as far ahead as possible so I can be a bit early in the warning game. But economist Mohamed El-Erian is not in either camp. He generally expects strong growth and is an optimist even in the face of adverse data.

Now he’s warning about a recession. So when even he warns of a recession, you can be fairly certain that it’s either already here or arriving soon.

I’ll continue to offer my forecasts using the best methods available and ample data. But one of my data points would include a warning from El-Erian.

Now throw a potential Middle East war into the mix. Investors take heed.

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>>> Army Awards Palantir AI/ML Contract in Support of JADC2 Capabilities


Business Wire

October 10, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/army-awards-palantir-ai-ml-105900266.html


DENVER, October 10, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Palantir Technologies Inc. today announced that the Army has awarded a new contract for up to three years to provide additional capabilities in support of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs), Armed Services, Intelligence Community, and Special Forces as they continue to test, utilize, and scale artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) capabilities. The contract, posted to the Department of Defense contracting website last week, is worth up to $250 million through 2026.

Since 2018, Palantir has partnered with the Army to provide leading data integration, management, and AI model training to all of the Armed Services, COCOMs, and special operators to create a common operating picture. Building on the partnership, this new phase will further the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) efforts across these forces.

"We’re honored to expand our partnership with the Army to continue delivering the most innovative technologies and advanced data applications across the Armed Services," said Akash Jain, President, Palantir USG. "Maturing new concepts for how we deploy solutions in different contexts is key to maintaining our nation’s competitive advantage, and we appreciate the opportunity to support this mission."

About Palantir Technologies Inc.

Foundational software of tomorrow. Delivered today.

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>>> Booz Allen Doubles Down on Adversarial AI Capabilities With New Investment


Business Wire

September 26, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/booz-allen-doubles-down-adversarial-120000482.html


HiddenLayer’s MLSec platform brings added scale to Booz Allen’s ability to protect federal AI missions


MCLEAN, Va., September 26, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) – the largest single provider of artificial intelligence services for the Federal government – today announced that its corporate venture capital arm, Booz Allen Ventures, has made a strategic investment in HiddenLayer, a security platform that safeguards machine learning (ML) models. This investment strengthens and expands Booz Allen’s tenured Adversarial AI capabilities, including those developed for the Department of Defense and intelligence clients, and will further accelerate secure adoption of enterprise AI solutions to keep pace with emerging national security threats as well as rising consumer expectations.

"Every AI-enabled solution should be assessed for risk and appropriately protected from adversarial attacks – especially as the government looks to deploy AI capabilities in increasingly important applications," said Matt Keating, leader of Booz Allen’s Adversarial AI portfolio. "Our clients operate in complex environments that require AI models be highly specialized, rapidly deployable, and secure. The HiddenLayer investment by Booz Allen Ventures better positions us to integrate startup, commercial, and open source innovation to rapidly augment our existing capabilities. Ultimately, allowing us to more quickly and confidently delivery robust AI capability to our clients – and the country at large."

With increased AI adoption – specifically AI models deployed within mission critical systems – the risk surface increases for federal, defense, civil, national security and commercial users, with bad actors looking to exploit and accelerate cyber threats. The newly announced investment in HiddenLayer will complement and accelerate Booz Allen’s existing Adversarial AI capabilities, a leader for over five years in advancing machine learning (ML) methodologies to safeguard systems against attack.

This includes a long-standing focus on addressing key challenges with model security, such as data poisoning, data leakage, model evasion, and malicious code injection. In addition, Booz Allen has also led advanced research to assess the adversarial image perturbation robustness for computer vision models and how manipulated tabular data can enhance the behavior evasive capabilities of Microsoft Windows malware.

"Using pre-trained open-source models is an overall net positive, but this foundation also puts AI models at greater risk for adversarial attack. This tension is a threat that organizations need to be aware of, plan for, and get ahead of, as our adversaries are doing just that," said Edward Raff, chief scientist at Booz Allen and leader of the Booz Allen ML research team, which has been publishing academic research on adversarial AI since 2018.

This is the latest AI-focused investment by Booz Allen Ventures, which identifies and invests in strategic, dual-use commercial technologies, with recent investments including Shift5, Credo AI, Hidden Level, Latent AI, Synthetaic, and Reveal Technology. The investment also builds on Booz Allen’s focused efforts and missions around Generative AI and Responsible AI, providing a robust security foundation as AI use increases.

"HiddenLayer’s powerful platform and expert team has proven effective in securing AI from a broad range of threats, so we quickly identified them as a partner that can support and protect our AI deployments," said Travis Bales, Managing Director at Booz Allen Ventures. "From our early discussions, it was clear to us that the HiddenLayer team has the vision and execution to continue developing security for the emerging AI market."

Booz Allen’s recent investment now enables Federal agencies to capitalize on HiddenLayer’s award-winning Machine Learning Detection & Response platform, as well as Booz Allen’s AI security research, risk and vulnerability assessments, managed detection and response services—all paired with AI security engineering best practices, tools and technologies.

"Booz Allen continuously proves its commitment to developing AI capabilities that are robust, secure, and offer the technical depth needed by the Federal government. Their 360-degree approach to AI combined with their steadfast commitment to HiddenLayer's vision since our founding made them a perfect partner for the next stage of our growth," said Chris Sestito, Co-Founder & CEO at HiddenLayer. "Bringing together our MLSec platform and their purpose-built AI solutions ensures our government can continue to innovate through AI adoption with confidence knowing they are secure from all types of cyber-attacks, including those from nation-states."

Learn more about Booz Allen’s work in Adversarial AI and about Booz Allen Ventures.

About Booz Allen Hamilton

Trusted to transform missions with the power of tomorrow’s technologies, Booz Allen Hamilton advances the nation’s most critical civil, defense, and national security priorities. We lead, invest, and invent where it’s needed most—at the forefront of complex missions, using innovation to define the future. We combine our in-depth expertise in AI and cybersecurity with leading-edge technology and engineering practices to deliver impactful solutions. Combining more than 100 years of strategic consulting expertise with the perspectives of diverse talent, we ensure results by integrating technology with an enduring focus on our clients. We’re first to the future—moving missions forward to realize our purpose: Empower People to Change the World®.

With global headquarters in McLean, Virginia, our firm employs approximately 32,600 people globally as of June 30, 2023 and had revenue of $9.3 billion for the 12 months ended March 31, 2023.

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>>> Booz Allen Hamilton: Solid Growth With Ukraine Tailwinds


Guru Focus

by Ben Alaimo

September 26, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/booz-allen-hamilton-solid-growth-074556932.html


Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (NYSE:BAH) is a management consultancy that back in post World War 2, began to score major contracts from the armed forces across various areas. Today the company has kept that lucrative client base and has even been dubbed the world's most profitable spy agency, having recruited over 1,000 of former intelligence officers. With the current war with Russia and Ukraine, its services are now more valuable than ever. In this post, I'm going to break down its business model and financials, lets dive in.

Overview of Business Model

BAH 30-Year Financial Data

The intrinsic value of BAH

Its main services include Security, the Cloud, engineering, digital experience, and even Artificial Intelligence.

Its AI offering includes; AI strategy & design, AI Systems Engineering, AI Operations, and AI R&D.

Its SMART Cloud services includes; Migration, multi-cloud operations and edge cloud.

Market Position and Opportunities

According to Grandview Research, the Cloud industry was valued at $483 billion in 2022 and it is forecast to grow at a 14.1% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), therefore Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) is poised to benefit from this trend.

Its other business offering Cybersecurity, is also a lucrative area. This comprises of many applications from Supply Chain Security to Cloud Security and even Ransomware recovery.

Financial Performance

The company reported solid financial results for what it refers to as the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024. Its revenue was $2.7 billion, which rose by 18% year over year. Organically the growth was 16.7%, driven by double-digit growth in the Federal industry.

Given this is a consultancy if we exclude billable expenses, its revenue rose by 16.9% year over year to $1.8 billion.

In its earnings call, management praised its VLT strategy which consists of velocity, leadership and technology.

Revenue Breakdown

Its Defense business increased its revenue by 19% year over year. This wasn't a surprise given the Russia-Ukraine crisis and increased military spending.

Its Civil revenue also rose by a solid 20% year over year. This was driven by digital transformation tailwinds across federal agencies.

Its Intelligence segment revenue increased by 18% year over year, driven by several new customer wins. This is a positive sign as given the current macroeconomic climate many analysts are pulling back spending.

Global Commercial Business Performance

Moving onto the global commercial business, this declined by an eye-watering 23% year over year. A positive was this was driven by the sale of its Manage Threat services business and therefore is not an indication of challenges. It was also a fairly small business segment contributing to just 2% of revenue.

Future Prospects

Demand for its services rose as Net Bookings were $2.7 billion. Its book-to-bill ratio was also 0.72 times higher than the prior year.

The company reported backlog of $31.3 billion, up 9.3% year over year. While its funded backlog increased by 22% to $4.9 billion.

Financial Health and Dividend

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) reported operating income of $234 million in Q1,FY24 which was higher than the $207 million reported in the prior year.

Its Adjusted EBITDA was $307 million, up 21.5% year over year. While its adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.6%, up 40 basis points year over year. This was driven by an increased focus on efficiency.

Surprisingly this positive margin improvement was despite an 11.2% increase in headcount, to a staggering 32,000 employees. Given the business is a consultancy effectively its people are the product, as the Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) rents them out via a billable hour model.

Its net income was $161 million, up 16.9% year over year.

Balance Sheet Analysis

Moving onto it balance sheet, the company reported $210 million of cash on hand. With net debt of $2.7 billion, which is fairly high, with a net leverage ratio of 2.5 times its adjusted EBITDA. However, given this is a legacy business (founded in 1914), this is expected.

Its Operating cash flow was light during the quarter due to the seasonality of bonus payments.

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) pays a forward dividend yield of 1.68%, with solid government contracts which makes it ideal for income investors.

Valuation

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) trades a price to sales (P/S) ratio = 1.53, which is 8% higher than its 5 year average. Its forward price to earnings (P/E) is also high at 24, which is 7% higher than its 5 year average.

I believe this is expected due to the quality of the company, its growth and consistency of customers.

The GF value calculator indicates a value of $110 per share and thus the stock is fairly valued at the time of writing.

Conclusion

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (NYSE:BAH) is an iconic organization that has deep roots and partnerships with government institutions. I believe its ties to the military are a major competitive advantage, given the geopolitical uncertainty and Russia-Ukraine war. The company's focus on hot topics such as Cybersecurity, AI and the Cloud are also major positives.

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>>> Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) -- It’s easy to overlook the defense contractors that provide essential services to U.S. intelligence agencies. But as geopolitical tensions simmer, the mission-critical work they provide becomes more crucial than ever. One name I’ve had my eye on is Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE:BAH).


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-perfect-stock-picks-moody-204445345.html


Booz Allen works extensively with agencies like the NSA, NGA, and CIA. This quarter, revenues grew an impressive 18%, showcasing Booz Allen’s vital role in areas like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. Adjusted earnings per share also beat expectations at $1.22, up 18.4% year-over-year.

While the stock has slipped 13% from its highs this year amid a broader defense sector pullback, I see a strong upside from current levels. Booz Allen continues to boast industry-leading organic revenue growth and margin expansion. And with a record backlog of $31.3 billion and a qualified pipeline, it has excellent visibility into future growth.

Moreover, geopolitical threats like cyberattacks, climate change, and rising global instability aren’t going away anytime soon. That means demand for mission-critical contractors like Booz Allen, that help U.S. intelligence agencies respond to these threats, will only intensify over time.

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>>> U.S. Space Force Awards Booz Allen $630M Systems Engineering and Integration Contract


Business Wire

October 4, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-space-force-awards-booz-120000256.html


Booz Allen to support engineering and integration of space sensing systems


MCLEAN, Va., October 04, 2023--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) announced today it was awarded a seven-year, $630-million, single-award contract with the U.S. Space Force to support systems engineering and integration of next-generation space-based missile warning, environmental monitoring, and surveillance, reconnaissance, and tracking. As part of this work, Booz Allen will support Space Systems Command (SSC)—the Space Force field command for space development, acquisition, launch, and logistics—in engineering resilient space sensing capabilities. In addition, the firm will integrate the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) program, a $14.4 billion program to upgrade U.S. missile warning and missile tracking capabilities to combat emerging missile threats.

This contract will leverage Booz Allen’s capabilities and mission expertise in digital engineering, mission integration, agile software development, cybersecurity, change management, AI, and machine learning (ML) to help the Space Force achieve its vision for a Digital Service. It also demonstrates the criticality of the space domain in delivering key decision-making information to warfighters and intelligence agencies to protect the nation.

"Booz Allen has been a trusted partner for defense, national security, and civil space missions for more than 50 years, starting with the nation's first missile defense strategy," said Andrea Inserra, executive vice president and leader in Booz Allen’s Aerospace business, which includes critical work for the U.S. Air Force, Space Force, U.S. Space Command, and NASA. "This is an exciting moment for Booz Allen, and we are thrilled to continue building upon our partnership with Space Force and the Department of Defense for critical missions aimed at accelerating and maintaining space superiority and driving information to action—no matter the domain."

Work on the contract will primarily take place in El Segundo, California, and Colorado Springs and Aurora, Colorado, with the ability to leverage teams and technology capabilities at additional U.S. locations as needed.

"This contract win is a key element of Booz Allen’s long-term, multiyear space strategy to meet client needs at the intersection of mission and technology," said Eric Hoffman, vice president and leader in Booz Allen’s space business. "This partnership reaffirms Booz Allen’s position as a leader in building and delivering world-class, mission-critical systems engineering, cyber architecture, and remote sensing capabilities to sustain U.S. space superiority."

This win builds on Booz Allen’s deep history in space solutions. The firm’s work includes over 50 years of multifaceted support for the International Space Station, modernization of NASA’s infrastructure and policies, engineering and analysis for the Artemis mission, and the Cybersecurity and Privacy Enterprise Solutions and Services (CyPrESS) contract—the first time NASA has united cybersecurity for IT, operational technology, and mission systems under one contract.

For more information about Booz Allen’s space solutions, visit here, and for more information on space careers, visit Booz Allen’s open space positions here.

About Booz Allen Hamilton

Trusted to transform missions with the power of tomorrow’s technologies, Booz Allen Hamilton advances the nation’s most critical civil, defense, and national security priorities. We lead, invest, and invent where it’s needed most—at the forefront of complex missions, using innovation to define the future. We combine our in-depth expertise in AI and cybersecurity with leading-edge technology and engineering practices to deliver impactful solutions. Combining more than 100 years of strategic consulting expertise with the perspectives of diverse talent, we ensure results by integrating technology with an enduring focus on our clients. We’re first to the future—moving missions forward to realize our purpose: Empower People to Change the World®.

With global headquarters in McLean, Virginia, our firm employs more than 32,600 people globally as of June 30, 2023 and had revenue of $9.3 billion for the 12 months ended March 31, 2023.

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>>> Hamas attack bears hallmarks of Iranian involvement, former U.S. officials say


NBC News

Dan De Luce and Matt Bradley and Gabe Gutierrez and Anna Schecter and Yasmine Salam

October 9, 2023


https://www.yahoo.com/news/hamas-attack-bears-hallmarks-iranian-034555714.html


The unprecedented scale and the sophisticated tactics Hamas used in its attack on Israel indicate Iran most likely played a significant role in the multipronged assault, former U.S. intelligence and military officers say.

From the use of fast boats to hostage-taking to swarming an adversary, the Hamas operation displayed an approach Iran and its proxies often use against opponents with superior conventional forces, said three former senior intelligence officials and a former senior military officer.

“The sophistication and the complexity of the attack seems beyond what Hamas could do on its own,” a former senior U.S. intelligence official said.

But in an interview, Ali Baraka, a senior Hamas official, denied that Iran supported or sanctioned the operation. “It was a surprise to everyone, including Iran,” said Baraka, the head of Hamas’ National Relations Abroad.

Baraka, speaking in Beirut, noted that Iran supports Hamas, but he insisted that “we did not inform them that there was an operation that would happen at dawn on Oct. 7.” He added, “After the operation began, we informed Iran.”

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Iranian security officials helped Hamas plan the surprise attack and approved it at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah. The Journal reported that officers in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the sophisticated air, land and sea assault.

Two U.S. officials told NBC News that they don’t have information to corroborate the Journal account.

A senior Israeli diplomatic source said Israel isn’t concerned about a direct war with Iran.

“Iran’s strategy is that of proxy war and to deny a direct connection to Hamas’ efforts,” the source said. “They work through proxies, and that’s why they are the No. 1 state sponsor of terror.”

Iran denied that it played a role in the attack. Asked about claims his country was behind the Hamas assault, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani told reporters on Monday that “such politicized accusations are motivated by Israel’s heavy defeat.”

Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer who specialized in counterterrorism, the Middle East and South Asia, said on X that it will be critical for intelligence agencies to determine the precise role Iran played in the surprise assault.

"The difference between 'directing' the attack and giving the actual green light" versus "'coordinating' may be difference between war with Iran or not," he said.

For decades, Iran has tried to counter technologically superior adversaries through guerrilla or low-tech methods, swarming warships with smaller speed boats, firing barrages of rockets, using drones and missiles to undercut opposing air forces and abducting foreign nationals, U.S. officials and analysts say.

When one of Iran’s proxies, whether they are Shiite militias in Iraq, Houthi forces in Yemen or Hamas in Gaza, demonstrate a significant advance in military sophistication, it is usually a sign that Tehran has lent a helping hand, said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“This was the case with the Houthi takeover of Yemen and with the Lebanese Hezbollah defense against Israel in 2006,” Knights said.

Striking Israel simultaneously at a variety of locations with rockets, small guerrilla cells, kidnapping units and fast boats “reeks of Iranian training, weapons provision, probably Iranian intelligence,“ said Colin Clarke, a senior researcher at the Soufan Center, a nonprofit organization that focuses on global security.

“This was a full-on assault from multiple entry points. I have to believe the Iranians are playing a role,” he said.

A central question is how Hamas members were able to breach Israel’s fortified border with Gaza, which consists of a series of fences, security posts, regular patrols, sophisticated cameras and ground motion sensors.

That Hamas militants were able to cross over with relative ease at multiple points on the border raises the possibility that the militants may have jammed the cameras and electronic sensors, depriving the Israelis of an early warning as the attack began, said Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who recently visited the border area.

Some of the security sensors may have been “compromised very early,” Montgomery said in an interview, and that would have “allowed forces to push through before there was an adequate response.”

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>>> Godfather of AI tells '60 Minutes' he fears the technology could one day take over humanity

Geoffrey Hinton hails the benefits of artificial intelligence but also sounds the alarm on such things as autonomous battlefield robots, fake news and unintended bias in employment and policing.


Kyle Moss

October 9, 2023


https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ai-geoffrey-hinton-60-minutes-fears-technology-take-over-humanity-073704715.html


Geoffrey Hinton, who has been called “the Godfather of AI,” sat down with 60 Minutes for Sunday’s episode to break down what artificial intelligence technology could mean for humanity in the coming years, both good and bad.

Hinton is a British computer scientist and cognitive psychologist, best known for his work on artificial neural networks — aka the framework for AI. He spent a decade working for Google before leaving in May of this year, citing concerns about the risks of AI.

Here is a look at what Hinton had to say to 60 Minutes interviewer Scott Pelley.

The Intelligence

After highlighting the latest concerns about AI to set up the segment, Pelley opened the Q&A with Hinton by asking him if humanity knows what it’s doing.

“No,” Hinton replied. “I think we’re moving into a period when for the first time ever, we have things more intelligent than us.”

Hinton expanded on that by saying he believes the most advanced AI systems can understand, are intelligent and can make decisions based on their own experiences. When asked if AI systems are conscious, Hinton said that due to a current lack of self-awareness, they probably aren’t, but that day is coming “in time.” And he agreed with Pelley’s take that, consequently, human beings will be the second-most intelligent beings on the planet.

After the idea was floated by Hinton that AI systems may be better at learning than the human mind, Pelley wondered how, since AI was designed by people — a notion that Hinton corrected.

“No, it wasn't. What we did was, we designed the learning algorithm. That’s a bit like designing the principle of evolution,” Hinton said. “But when this learning algorithm then interacts with data, it produces complicated neural networks that are good at doing things. But we don’t really understand exactly how they do those things.”

The Good

Hinton did say that some of the huge benefits of AI have already been seen in healthcare, with its ability to do things like recognize and understand medical images, along with designing drugs. This is one of the main reasons Hinton looks on his work with such a positive light.

The Bad

“We have a very good idea sort of roughly what it’s doing,” Hinton said of how AI systems teach themselves. “But as soon as it gets really complicated, we don’t actually know what’s going on any more than we know what’s going on in your brain.”

That sentiment was just the tip of the iceberg of concerns surrounding AI, with Hinton pointing to one big potential risk as the systems get smarter.

“One of the ways these systems might escape control is by writing their own computer code to modify themselves. And that’s something we need to seriously worry about,” he said.

Hinton added that as AI takes in more and more information from things like famous works of fiction, election media cycles and everything in between, AI will just keep getting better at manipulating people.

“I think in five years time it may well be able to reason better than us,” Hinton said.

And what that means is risks like autonomous battlefield robots, fake news and unintended bias in employment and policing. Not to mention, Hinton said, “having a whole class of people who are unemployed and not valued much because what they used to do is now done by machines.”

The Ugly

To make matters worse, Hinton said he doesn’t really see a path forward that totally guarantees safety.

“We’re entering a period of great uncertainty where we’re dealing with things we’ve never done before. And normally the first time you deal with something totally novel, you get it wrong. And we can’t afford to get it wrong with these things.”

When pressed by Pelley if that means AI may one day take over humanity, Hinton said "yes, that's a possibility. I’m not saying it will happen. If we could stop them ever wanting to, that would be great. But it’s not clear we can stop them ever wanting to."

So what do we do?

Hinton said that this could be a bit of a turning point, where humanity may have to face the decision of whether to develop these things further and how people should “protect themselves” if they do.

“I think my main message is, there’s enormous uncertainty about what’s going to happen next,” Hinton said. “These things do understand, and because they understand we need to think hard about what’s next, and we just don’t know.”

Pelley reported that Hinton said he has no regrets about the work he’s done given AI’s potential for good, but that now is the time to run more experiments on it to understand, to impose certain regulations and for a world treaty to ban the use of military robots.

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>>> General Dynamics Corporation (GD) -- Goldman Sachs’ Stake Value: $290,874,869


https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/goldman-sachs-defense-stocks-top-5-stock-picks-1190422/


Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 46

General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) functions as a global aerospace and defense firm, conducting its operations across four main segments – Aerospace, Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies. It is one of the top Goldman Sachs defense stocks, with the firm holding a $290.8 million stake in the company.

On August 1, General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) declared a $1.32 per share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. The dividend is payable on November 10, to shareholders of record on October 6.

According to Insider Monkey’s second quarter database, 46 hedge funds were bullish on General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD), compared to 43 funds in the last quarter. James A. Star’s Longview Asset Management is the leading position holder in the company, with 28.2 million shares worth just over $6 billion.

Here is what Oakmark Global Fund has to say about General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) in its Q1 2021 investor letter:

“The second new U.S. equity purchase was General Dynamics, a leading U.S. defense contractor and owner of the world’s premier business jet franchise (Gulfstream). We were able to purchase this high-quality and durable business at a meaningful discount to our estimate of its intrinsic value after a series of near-term concerns hurt its share price. Taking a longer term view, the company’s business jet franchise should benefit from a multi-year investment program in new, differentiated products. Also, its free cash flow conversion is set to improve materially and the company is poised to benefit from a highly visible ramp up in revenue related to next generation nuclear-powered submarines. As these positives come into clearer view, we expect sentiment to improve, along with the company’s share price.”

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>>> RTX Corporation (RTX) -- Considering that RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) is near 52-week lows, it might be an opportunity to buy one of the best defense stocks. After announcing its second-quarter results, the stock declined by over 10%. The negative reaction was triggered by an issue with its Pratt & Whitney engines.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-defense-stocks-buy-210423930.html


Reuters reported that RTX had discovered a defect in 1,200 engines. Microscopic contaminants in the powdered metal in high-pressure turbine discs could cause micro-cracks. As a result, the affected engines must be grounded for inspection over the next year. This was a setback for the company’s ambition to conquer the jet engine market.

But looking at the rest of the second quarter report, the results were impressive. Sales were up 12% YOY and 13% on an organic basis. The Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon Missiles & Defense segments reported 17%, 15% and 12% YOY growth rates, respectively. Meanwhile, the total backlog was a healthy $185 billion — $112 billion commercial and $73 billion defense.

Net income from continuing operations was 1.3 billion, a 2% YOY increase. Additionally, adjusted EPS grew 11% YOY to $1.29. The company also repurchased $596 million of RTX shares in the quarter.

Management highlighted the strong momentum and raised their outlook. “Based on the strong performance year-to-date and strong end-markets, we are raising our full year sales outlook and tightening our adjusted EPS* outlook,” said CEO Greg Hayes.

For FY2023, management expects adjusted EPS of $4.95 – $5.05. Considering a midpoint EPS of 5, the stock trades at 16 times forward price-to-earnings. Buy the world’s largest aerospace and defense company at these bargain prices.

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>>> Lockheed Martin’s (LMT), a Maryland-based defense giant, is a critical defense supplier for the U.S. and its allies. The company develops and manufactures advanced military aircraft. In addition, it provides air-to-ground precision strike weapon systems, tactical missiles and air and missile defense systems.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-defense-stocks-buy-210423930.html


Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program will be a key growth driver. In 2022, the F-35 program accounted for 27% of total sales and 66% of the Aeronautics segment’s net sales. Given the rising U.S.-China tensions, the U.S. and its allies are banking on F35 fighter jets to bolster their defenses.

There are reasons for optimism after the debt ceiling deal met President Joe Biden’s $886 billion request for fiscal year 2024. As a result, the F-35 will receive funding to produce 83 F-35 aircraft. Besides, there is increasing interest from allies. For instance, Israel recently approved the purchase of 25 F-35 jets.

As orders increase, revenue growth is accelerating. In the second quarter of FY2023, the aeronautics segment grew sales 17% year-over-year. The increase was mainly due to a rise in production contracts.

Looking at the Missiles and Fire Control segment, sales were flat. While the year-over-year growth was disappointing, the backlog trend was positive. The segment recorded a backlog increase of $5.3 billion to close the quarter at $34 billion.

With a record backlog and growing revenues, the company is in a strong position to return capital to shareholders. It has a strong record of shareholder returns, having repurchased 21% of its outstanding shares in the last 10 years. Additionally, it has increased its dividend for 20 consecutive years.

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>>> CACI International (CACI) offers specialized technology services and consulting to the defense and intelligence industry. It is a beneficiary of the modernization efforts in the U.S. military and intelligence. Moreover, it will profit from the increased cyber warfare as we go ahead.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-defense-stocks-buy-210423930.html


The company provides digital solutions that modernize federal agencies and their IT. The Engineering Services segment enhances and hardens national technology systems to defend against malicious actors. Its C4ISR, Cyber & Space solutions provide electromagnetic spectrum advantage and deliver precision effects to protect federal agencies against national security threats.

CACI generates a significant portion of revenues from the federal government. In fiscal 2023, federal government contracts made up 94.8% of total revenues. Over the same period, contracts with agencies of the Department of Defense represented 71.9% of total revenues.

Over the past decade, revenues have been steadily increasing, given the growth in defense spending. This growth will likely continue due to the critical nature of CACI’s services to the U.S. government.

The company has secured key defense contracts from the U.S. government. For instance, it won a $5.7 billion Air Force Enterprise IT contract in June to modernize and transform Airforce IT services. And in August, it bagged another $2.7 billion contract from the National Security Agency. These awards highlight why CACI is one of the best defense stocks to buy.

In terms of valuations, the stock is reasonably valued. For the full year ending June 30, 2023, it earned an adjusted diluted EPS of $18.83. Thus, as of this writing, it trades at 17 times trailing earnings. Given the stability of its defense business and expected secular defense spending, CACI stock is a bargain.

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Rickards - >>> Could WWIII Begin in Black Sea?


BY JAMES RICKARDS

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023


https://dailyreckoning.com/could-wwiii-begin-in-black-sea/


Could WWIII Begin in Black Sea?

I’ve written frequently in the past about the risks of escalation in the war in Ukraine. Of course, all wars carry such risks and often the escalation plays out exactly as feared.

World War II began with the conventional weapons of the time (infantry, ships, aircraft, artillery, etc.) but eventually escalated to fire-bombing major cities like Dresden, annihilating entire army groups on the Eastern Front in Europe with millions of dead and the use of atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The same dynamic is playing out in Ukraine, although few Americans are aware of the full details.

The war began with a limited special military operation by Russia in Ukraine. It’s likely that Putin undertook the operation in order to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, not to conquer it. Essentially, Putin wanted Ukraine to abandon any plans to join NATO and to pledge neutrality (more on that in a minute).

By the way, people say Putin is a crazy warmonger who just wanted to retake Ukraine and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. But here’s what most people don’t realize:

Ukrainian membership in NATO was always a bright red line for any Russian leader, regardless of who he is. Even Russian “liberals” who might otherwise despise Putin agree that Ukraine must not join NATO. They regard it as a dagger pointed directly at the Russian heartland.

That might seem paranoid to some, but Russian history provides ample evidence of Russia’s vulnerability to invasion.

The point is, any Russian leader would strongly oppose Ukrainian membership in NATO — not just Putin.

A de Facto NATO Member

Others claim that NATO never actually offered Ukraine official membership, so that discredits Putin’s rationale for invading. They say it was just an excuse to disguise his real ambition to retake Ukraine.

While it’s technically true that NATO never offered Ukraine official membership, the reality is more complicated than that.

The fact is, NATO had been arming and training Ukraine’s armed forces for years. They conducted joint exercises. Ukraine was essentially becoming a de facto member of NATO as a result.

Putin formally protested and warned NATO (the U.S. in reality) about the consequences, but it fell on deaf ears.

Was Putin supposed to just wait around until NATO extended a formal invitation to Ukraine? By then, the Ukrainian armed forces would have been an even more formidable force and a legitimate threat to Russian interests.

By February 2022, Putin decided to act.

Many will accuse me of being a Putin propagandist for pointing all this out, but I’m just putting myself in his shoes. Any good analyst has to understand his opponent’s position, even if he thinks it’s wrong.

That’s what I’m doing. You can simultaneously condemn the Russian invasion while understanding it.

This entire disaster would have likely been avoided if the West took Russia’s security concerns more seriously instead of arrogantly dismissing them.

Let’s You and Him Fight

Again, Putin likely invaded to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russia only committed about 190,000 troops to the invasion, a relatively small number that couldn’t hope to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces (which were the second-largest in Europe) and occupy the entire country.

A much larger force would have been required if Putin planned to comprehensively defeat and occupy Ukraine.

And the plan actually worked. In April 2022, just over a month after the February invasion, Ukraine agreed to negotiate with Russia. Talks took place in Istanbul. Though we can’t say for sure how negotiations would have played out, documents indicate that Ukraine seemed willing to accept neutrality and abandon plans to join NATO.

But then Boris Johnson showed up (certainly with U.S. backing) and convinced the Ukrainians to break off negotiations. He pledged that NATO would provide Ukraine everything it needed to fight Russia, including advanced weapons and its full range of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

It would basically marry the second-largest army in Europe to NATO’s most advanced electronic assets. Ukraine took Johnson up on the offer. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Ukrainians scored many initial battlefield successes.

The greater story here is that over 90% of the death and destruction that’s occurred in Ukraine over the past 18 months would likely have been avoided if Russia and Ukraine were allowed to continue negotiating last April.

But that wasn’t in the West’s interests. They wanted to weaken Russia by dragging it into a long and bloody conflict with their Ukrainian proxy. They didn’t care how many Ukrainians had to die along the way.

They still don’t.

Who Will Blink First?

Well, the war has now escalated to the largest and most deadly land war in Europe since World War II.

That escalation includes deliveries by the U.S. and other NATO members to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of advanced weaponry including Patriot anti-aircraft batteries, HIMARS mobile precision missile launchers, drones, Leopard tanks, Challenger tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and much more.

Russia has responded by increasing its troops in Ukraine to perhaps 500,000 (the exact number is secret) and deploying GPS jamming devices to negate the West’s advanced weaponry that relies on GPS guidance, hypersonic missiles (that can defeat the West’s air defenses), drones, heavy use of land mines and its highly effective S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.

The danger in Ukraine is not just the obvious one of escalation. The danger is that both sides (Russia versus NATO) are nuclear powers. Someone’s going to have to climb down from the escalation ladder at some point, or the logic of escalation will ultimately place the U.S. and Russia into direct conflict.

Will the escalation end soon? Not likely. The U.S. is on the verge of adopting a new treaty called the Black Sea Security Act.

A glance at a map shows the Black Sea is surrounded by Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Russia and Ukraine are the main combatants. Georgia is under the thumb of Russia. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are all NATO members.

Not every NATO member will necessarily adopt the provisions of the Black Sea treaty. But if the U.S. does, it will set up a NATO versus Russia confrontation in the Black Sea itself.

This could involve using Romanian ports and NATO vessels to attack Russian navy ships in the Black Sea in the name of freedom of navigation. That’s not as unrealistic as you might think. Of course, the real purpose is to facilitate arms shipments to Ukraine via the Bosporus and the Black Sea.

This is one more step on the road to escalation and eventual nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine. Is anyone paying attention?

The Russians certainly are.

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