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Before Missiles Flew
Advance/Decline started down.
Spring Rally's end, or???
Inflation has slowed
to around 4 Percent mark.
2 above FED goal......
Yellen would suggest
Inflation doesn't erode
Purchasing Power............
If Earnings don't match
upward growth of Stock Prices
this Rally won't last...........
Derived from Elaine Garzarelli's work combining a broad P/E with short term interest rates, the Relative Valuation Index looks at the risk involved in Stocks vs the "risk free" rate of short treasuries. Sadly, right now this 2024 rally looks like it's not backed by either a drop in interest rates or growth in earnings.
Purchasing Power.
Does it decline faster than
Our Trust in the FED?
The 13 Week Treasury Rate has stabilized at around 5.3% yield. In the mean time, CPI Inflation has corrected from the late 2022 high. But the rate at which it is correcting has slowed. Stuck near 4%/Yr, it is a cancer for Citizens living on Fixed Income. It's also far above the Federal Reserve's stated long term inflation target.
The FED doesn't feel Inflation's pain the way Citizens do. Nor do Senators or Congressmen. Where's the accountability?
Markets topping out?
Narrow market breadth says so.
Consolidation.
OAG Tom
Inflation at 4
Half your Purchasing Power
Gone in 18 years
FED Seasonal Gift?
Maybe Markets priced it right.
Election Cycle?
Two weeks of Rally
Major Indexes rising
Will Small-Mid follow?
They did it again
Messed with my BioRhythms
No Daylight was Saved!
"Normalization"
It's taken a long, long time.
But, are we there yet?
If we look at the yield of the 10 Year Treasury at 3.875%/Yr and the 13 Week Treasury at 5.503%/Yr we see the Yield Curve is still upside down. So, to answer my own question, I don't think we've reached "normal" for inflation or interest rates.
Like Paul Carrack said in 1975 in his song "How Long" -
"Well your friends with their fancy persuasions
don't admit that it's part of their scheme...."
https://lnkd.in/eA8EgQWF
Ship, All canvas up
Sensitive to every breeze.
No Rudder astern!
A full set of sails doesn't compensate for lack of a rudder. It's best to have a planned destination before leaving the harbor.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
When Short crosses Long
Some Storms coming could be strong
With too much, too fast.....
This is the first time we've seen the 18 Month v-W cross the 3-5 year line in over 2 years. Maybe all the short term gains have used up the short term potential.
We formed a Rock Band
We're called "Tommy and the Who"
A Pinball Wizard!!!!!
This is my Chauffeur
He claims I'm Data Driven
in Stock Selection.......
Sector Rotation
shows some pleasure and some pain.
Best to have a Plan.
Speculative cash
sits firmly on the sidelines
waiting for Green Lights
Worrisome Headlines
reflected in Divergence.
Consensus is low.
Seeing Convergence
inflation and ST Rates
offers us some hope
Extraordinary
Popular Delusions And
The Madness Of Crowds
Is this 'Chapter 666' of this book?
What the Devil is going on here?
smile
OAG Tom
https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Illustrated-ebook/dp/B003I84MBO/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2QAASM7OW2O07&keywords=extraordinary+popular+delusions&qid=1678727739&s=books&sprefix=extraordinary+popular+delusions%2Cstripbooks%2C447&sr=1-1
Pains of '22
have already been realized.
'23 better?
OAG
Perspective matters
Information presented
Different point of view
OAG
A great one from Grabber!
The Dow Jones Plunges
The herd runs for the hills. So.....
The Dow Jones Plunges..
Negative returns
for most of this 15 years.
Central Bank Warfare....
Prior to the New Millennium the 13 Week Treasury Rate was usually around 1 basis point above the CPI Inflation Rate. That all changed with new Treasury and FED policy brought on after the DotCom bubble. Since then, and specifically since 2008's 'financial crisis', fixed income investors have had a hard time creating a positive real rate of return. The FED and the U.S. Treasury seem to be waging war on senior citizens.
When will we see interest rates return to their historic trend of being higher than inflation?
Speculative Zeal
is all but sublimated.
Established stocks win.
When IPO activity shrivels speculative investing dollars flow back toward more traditional stocks. This is good for those stocks and the stock market indexes as well - especially small and mid caps.
OAG Tom
With Chat GTP
Haiku rules need explaining
Five, Seven and Five!!!
Advance and Decline
shows improving market breadth
Has the Market Turned?
