I rarely visit this room. If you want to contact me I'm at leekramer@charter.net...I'll get back to you.

Hi Sparky: Sure I remember you. Jenna is on vacation add Alfonso is holding down the fort. Last I know, Jenna and Andy are fine.

testing again, computer problem

Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. we get the New Housing start #'s, the Building Permit #'s and the Jobless claims. A 12:00 we get the Philly Fed.

Still at Paltalk in my trading room. New e-mail: leekramer@charter.net

Still in my trading room on Paltalk. There are six of us now. We share trading ideas, trade rather well and have a bit of fun too. I work with some pretty good traders.

Still in my trading room on Paltalk. There are six of us now. We share trading ideas, trade rather well and have a bit of fun too. I work with some pretty good traders.

Sorry I haven't posted. I've been in my trading room with three other traders on Paltalk. I can be reached at leekramer@rcn.com

Sure I remeber you sparks. I'm glad to see Jenna is back posting. Trade well, Lee

Never mind, Lee, i see she decided to start posting again.
Be Well, Lee.

Lee whats happening with Market Gems?
Hi Lee, dont know if you would remember me, but was a subscriber to Jenna's room at Pristine under the name Sparks, as in Maryland and had been following her on Ihub but she seems to have let the site go somewhat dormant. Was wondering if you knew anything further since you used to be sort of her right hand man and is she ok? Thanks for any light you can shed on this.

10/26/02


DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes


I was in crisis. Usually when I’m in crisis I call doc Kronkite, my shrink. He calms me down. He’s a specialist you know.

But the nexus of this crisis was trading related. I wavered, waffled and wobbled before picking up the phone at 3:00 a.m.

The doc was probably ensconced in the midst of a dream. He is a Freudian analyst, [I know this because he has a photo of the bearded fellow, as many shrinks do, on his office wall.] Dreams are very important to him. As he often reminds me, “All can be found, all can be solved, by interpreting dreams. Dream boobeleh, dream. And don’t forget to remember your dreams.”

“I will doc, I will,” I always assure him.

But as my hand hovered over the phone I was struck with an inspiration. Dortmunder, my trading partner, could solve my crisis. But would the little guy deem to help?

I tip-toed quietly into his bedroom. He was deep asleep. I tapped him gently on the shoulder. Nothing. I tapped again. Still nothing. So I did what one must when in crisis. I hollered “Wake up Dorty, wake up. I’m in CRISIS!!!”

He opened an eye, looked at me, said “Sod you,” in his clipped British accent, “Perhaps you observed that I was sleeping?” whereupon he closed his eye and ignored me.

I hollered again. He sat up.

“Nixon had his six crises. You have six crises per week. Go see Kronkite, directly,” he intoned.

“But I don’t want Kronkite. I want you. I need you. You are brilliant! It’s about the market, about trading, and you are a trading connoisseur,” I said in my best British accent. I had him.

He snorted. “You shant move me with your nonsense.

Mmm. So I tried bribery. “Dortmunder, I shall warm up a plate of raspberry scones, a pot of your favorite tea flown in at my cost from Britain. And I’ve purchased a new bumbershoot for you.” [I keep several in hiding for such occasions.]

He harrumphed, but shrugged into his bathrobe; the one with his family coat-of-arms in prominent display.

He followed me in to the kitchen. I prepared the scones, the tea and handed him the $3.95 bumbershoot. He looked at it, sneered, and tossed it into the waste basket.

He began working on his scones while reading the London Times.

I paced.

He ate more scones, maddingly slowly.

I paced some more.

When done he said “Describe if you must, the salient feature of your latest crisis.”

“I fear that I’ve missed the train,” I replied, wringing my hands.

“The train? Patience my dear chap, another train will be along shortly,” he said.

“No. I mean that I’ve missed the New Bull Market. Stocks are flying;
I’m still sitting on my cash,” I cried. “I missed YHOO, I missed AMZN, I missed BLUD, COH, EMC and LF. Woe is me.”

“Indeed.”

”So what should I do? Help me,” I beseeched the little guy.

“You are a day-trader, are you not?” he asked.

“Sure.” I said.

“Well, do you think the market will rise faster than Jack’s Beanstalk?”

“Yes, of course,” I said.

“No, it will not,” he said.

“Will too,” I screamed.

“It will not,” he replied. “Look at your charts. Sure, those stocks you mentioned ran hard and fast. You missed your trains, as you put it rather poorly. Wait for the consolidations: the bull flags, the pennants, the pullbacks to the 10 and 20 period moving averages. Wait. And short the weak charts. There are trading opportunities every day. Find them and trade.”

“Trade?”

“Quite. Trade. And with your profits acquire for me a proper bumbershoot.”

“Yes, yes, of course,” I said. ”What should I trade on Monday?” I asked.

“We shall wait until Monday. I will assist you,” he said, leaving table and heading for his bedroom.

“Dortmunder,” I said, “You are a genius. I am no longer in crisis.”

He looked over his shoulder. Mumbled something. I think I heard “Bully, Bully.”


Lee Kramer


Copyright 10/26/02

DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes


I was in crisis. Usually when I’m in crisis I call doc Kronkite, my shrink. He calms me down. He’s a specialist you know.

But the nexus of this crisis was trading related. I wavered, waffled and wobbled before picking up the phone at 3:00 a.m.

The doc was probably ensconced in the midst of a dream. He is a Freudian analyst, [I know this because he has a photo of the bearded fellow, as many shrinks do, on his office wall.] Dreams are very important to him. As he often reminds me, “All can be found, all can be solved, by interpreting dreams. Dream boobeleh, dream. And don’t forget to remember your dreams.”

“I will doc, I will,” I always assure him.

But as my hand hovered over the phone I was struck with an inspiration. Dortmunder, my trading partner, could solve my crisis. But would the little guy deem to help?

I tip-toed quietly into his bedroom. He was deep asleep. I tapped him gently on the shoulder. Nothing. I tapped again. Still nothing. So I did what one must when in crisis. I hollered “Wake up Dorty, wake up. I’m in CRISIS!!!”

He opened an eye, looked at me, said “Sod you,” in his clipped British accent, “Perhaps you observed that I was sleeping?” whereupon he closed his eye and ignored me.

I hollered again. He sat up.

“Nixon had his six crises. You have six crises per week. Go see Kronkite, directly,” he intoned.

“But I don’t want Kronkite. I want you. I need you. You are brilliant! It’s about the market, about trading, and you are a trading connoisseur,” I said in my best British accent. I had him.

He snorted. “You shant move me with your nonsense.

Mmm. So I tried bribery. “Dortmunder, I shall warm up a plate of raspberry scones, a pot of your favorite tea flown in at my cost from Britain. And I’ve purchased a new bumbershoot for you.” [I keep several in hiding for such occasions.]

He harrumphed, but shrugged into his bathrobe; the one with his family coat-of-arms in prominent display.

He followed me in to the kitchen. I prepared the scones, the tea and handed him the $3.95 bumbershoot. He looked at it, sneered, and tossed it into the waste basket.

He began working on his scones while reading the London Times.

I paced.

He ate more scones, maddingly slowly.

I paced some more.

When done he said “Describe if you must, the salient feature of your latest crisis.”

“I fear that I’ve missed the train,” I replied, wringing my hands.

“The train? Patience my dear chap, another train will be along shortly,” he said.

“No. I mean that I’ve missed the New Bull Market. Stocks are flying;
I’m still sitting on my cash,” I cried. “I missed YHOO, I missed AMZN, I missed BLUD, COH, EMC and LF. Woe is me.”

“Indeed.”

”So what should I do? Help me,” I beseeched the little guy.

“You are a day-trader, are you not?” he asked.

“Sure.” I said.

“Well, do you think the market will rise faster than Jack’s Beanstalk?”

“Yes, of course,” I said.

“No, it will not,” he said.

“Will too,” I screamed.

“It will not,” he replied. “Look at your charts. Sure, those stocks you mentioned ran hard and fast. You missed your trains, as you put it rather poorly. Wait for the consolidations: the bull flags, the pennants, the pullbacks to the 10 and 20 period moving averages. Wait. And short the weak charts. There are trading opportunities every day. Find them and trade.”

“Trade?”

“Quite. Trade. And with your profits acquire for me a proper bumbershoot.”

“Yes, yes, of course,” I said. ”What should I trade on Monday?” I asked.

“We shall wait until Monday. I will assist you,” he said, leaving table and heading for his bedroom.

“Dortmunder,” I said, “You are a genius. I am no longer in crisis.”

He looked over his shoulder. Mumbled something. I think I heard “Bully, Bully.”


Lee Kramer


Copyright 10/26/02

DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes



It was time for doc Kronkite’s second trading lesson. I left Dortmuder home with a plate of raspberry scones, the London Times and the Economist. The little guy seemed pleased. Dortmunder and the doc didn’t get along.

Both were brilliant. Dortmunder as a trader, the doc as a psychiatrist to traders.

They were the Hatfields and McCoys of the trading world.

The lovely Miss Tushbumper hugged me hard when I entered. I blushed.

As I walked in, the doc was on his lumpy leather couch, eager to begin the trading lesson.

Seeing that the little guy was not with me he said, “Where’s the little guy, Dootlegrunter. Don’t like him.”

“His name is Dortmunder doc, not Doodlegrunter,” I said.

“Right, that’s what I said, Doodlegrunter.”

I shrugged.

“So what am I going to learn today?” Said the doc. “I’ve got those bull-flag patterns down pat.”

“I thought we might discuss uptrends and downtrends today,” I replied.”

“Trends, schmends,” he snorted. “I know all about ‘em.”

I shrugged, again.

“OK how ‘bout we work on gaps?”

“Gaps,” he said. “You mean like the Cumberland Gap? Nonsense. I know all about the Cumberland Gap. All the other gaps too. Learned about ‘em in high school.”

“No doc, not those kind of gaps. Gaps we see on stock charts.”

“Oh those. Know all I need to know,” he said. All gaps must be filled. Learned that from Mendelbaum the fund manager.”

“Medelbaum is wrong doc.”

“Mendelbaum is not wrong,” he hollered.

“Is too,” I yelled

“Is not,” he screamed.

I took a few deep breaths, made a fist, slammed it hard into my head. I felt better.

“Doc,” I began in a soft voice, “a gap is a wonderful thing to behold. Kinda like a Picasso, or a Mondrian even.”

“Don’t know them,” said the doc. “Who do they work for? Do they need a good psychiatrist? I may be able to fit them in.”

I shrugged once more. Took more deep breaths. My hyperventilation didn’t last long.

“A gap is an open space in a chart doc. It suggests, rather strongly, that there’s a sudden, inexplicable, extraordinary demand for a stock.”

“No,” cried the doc.

“Yes,” I said.

“Ah,” said Kronkite, “a gap is like a hole in your bucket.”

“Excuse me?”

“A hole in your bucket!” he hollered, “a technical term I invented after treating all you crazy day-traders. Did a whole chapter on it in my book, “Day-Traders and other Fruitcakes.” You read it of course.””

“Gee doc, I must’ve missed that chapter,” I said, embarrassed.

“Listen carefully,” he said. “All day-traders are cuckoo. They all have holes in their buckets, deep psychological issues. Some suffer from sexual problems. You’ve heard of Premature Congratulations? A big problem with day-traders. Some have phobias: fear of bumping into elephants, very common; fear of being seated next to a Wall St. analyst at a dinner party or, even worse, being seated next to Larry King on an eight hour airplane flight. The list is endless.”

“Can we get back to gaps doc?” I asked.

“Yes, yes. Tell me more. More you should tell me,” the doc demanded, reaching for paper and pen.

“Ok doc. See, there are three kinds of gaps. Breakaway gaps, Continuation gaps and Exhaustion gaps. Shall we start with the Breakaway gap?” I asked.

“Yes, yes. Start already,” he screamed.

“Ok. Picture a stock that has dropped from 60 down to 6,” I began.

“I don’t have to picture them. I’ve got lots of them. Mendelbaum the fund manager put me into them,” he wailed.

“Ok, one of your six dollar stocks stops going down. It moves sideways between five and six for seven months on low volume. Got the picture?”

“I’ve got the picture and the stock. Proceed,” he said.

“Then one day this six dollar stock opens at 6 ½ on heavy volume. Suddenly there’s an open space on the chart, a gap. And the stock runs up to seven and closes near seven on very heavy volume. That’s a breakaway gap doc and it means that the probability is pretty good that the stock is going to run.”

“But Mendebaum says that all gaps must be filled. Won’t it drop to fill the gap?” asked the doc.

“No. When you see a breakaway gap, buy the stock. And it matters not what the company does, what they earn, how the analysts rate it. Just buy it,” I said.

He frowned. He sat up. He began to sweat. He started to hyperventilate. I waited. Presently he calmed down.

“Ok, so I’ll buy the breakaway gap. Then what?”

“Relax, a breakaway gap is whispering to you, “I look higher,”
it’s saying.”

“No kidding? Charts talk?”

“Indeed they do doc,” I told him.

“But there must be a reason for all this,” he said.

“There probably is a reason. But you won’t learn what it is until later, maybe much later. Meanwhile the stock may move up to eight, maybe nine,” I said.

“But if I buy it at seven and it goes to eight or nine, what’s the big deal?” he asked.

“Well, a move from seven to eight, one point, is a 14.2% move,” I said.

“It is?”

“Yes it is.

”Mendelbaum the fund manager never made me 14% in a whole year. I’ll strangle Mendelbaum is what I’ll do,” he screamed.

“And,” I continued, “if the stock moves up to nine your gain is 28.5%,” I pointed out.

“No!” he cried.

“Yes,” I said. “And then there may come a day when you see another gap. It’s called a continuation gap. That’s when more traders begin to take notice of the stock and begin to buy. Their buying tends to continue the prior trend, to make yet another gap, hence the name continuation gap.”

“This is amazing,” said the doc. “Who invented this, these flaps?”

“Gaps doc, not flaps.” Kronkite tended to slip into his malapropistic mode whenever he got excited. He was excited.

“Exactly, that’s what I said, flaps. I think it was Albert Epstein who invented these flaps. He was the guy who invented the Theory of Regularity. He won a Gobel prize for it. You could look it up.”

“I will doc, I will. At the earliest possible moment,” I assured him.

“Tell me more, more tell me,” he bellowed.

“Well doc, there will come a day when there’s another gap and the stock goes even higher. Then it begins to drop, and the gap is closed. That’s it doc, that’s the likely end to the move. We call it the exhaustion gap. It’s a signal, a strong signal to get out, exit, sell the stock. The stock is saying, “sell me.”

“Again with the talking stock,” he said. “Do you often hear voices?”

“All the time doc. The charts are always talking to me. Sometimes I listen; and when I do, trading profits tend to happen.”

“I’ll bet these gaps are all over the place,” the doc said.

“No, these gaps are not too common.”

“So how do I find these gaps?” he asked me.

“You have to look at charts doc.”

“No time. I’m too busy treating day-traders. Will you call me when you find a gap?”

“Sure doc.”

“Fine. Ok, our time is up. I must prepare for my next session, a day-trader named Plugger. Another session or two, he’ll be completely cured. See Miss Tushbumper on your way out. Another appointment make for next week.”

“Sure doc.”


Lee Kramer


Copyright Oct. 2002

I spend most of my time in an intimate trading room; Paltalk, in the Business & Finance section, under the name 'Lee Kramers's Trading Room.' We are an small group of a few astute traders who share ideas. Our goal is to make a day's pay, though trading "styles" of course differ. We do rather well. You are welcome to stop by.

Charts that look tradeable, long and short today: TTWO EXLN STTX KMX ELAB SSLOC EASI. Most of these were on the list of tradeable charts yesterday.

Correcton: That was KMX, not KMC.

KMC EASI STTX T BLL ELAB and SSOLC are did rather well; they were very tradeable yesterday.

The work between now and tomorrow's open will be to cull the prior list to one, perhaps two...to trade.

Stocks that look tradeable, long and short Monday 9/16: KMX STTX T BLL SSOLC ELAB EASI. Any positions taken will be exited by 4:00 p.m.

Just found your board Lee, looks like I'll be stopping here often! Great Ibox, and I also like your trading style! Got the board marked!

Muell

Lee,,I like your style......There is the compny and there is the company's stock. I trade the stock, never the company.


Rick...
"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going."
-Anon.

Thanks for the help Lee!
My Email is bbgold2001@hotmail.com. I think that everyone knows what it is but I never get any Email <GG> :^)

Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!

bbgold: ERTS st9ill working on an indide-day after that nice run. The stock is coming down now, 64.30 last -1.30. It'll likely bounce about a bit today, but if the inside-day remains intact I'd look for the stock to react for the next few days.

bbgold. I read you last post. If you send me your e-mail address to me at leekramer@rcn.com I'll send you something that might be helpful and of interest to you...Lee

bbgold: AKLM 2.42 last. The breakaway gap seems to have broken the stock away.

Hi Lee,
I mostly trade options and look for situations where a stock has a somewhat predictable or anticipated move within a short time span, less than a month. Primarily I do DJX options as short term, 1-3 days but like to look at some stocks every now and then. I am also looking for a few longer term holds, 3-6 months for my IRA. I am still not very good at determining the difference between a potential Breakout or at Resistance so I am interested in your opinions compared to how I might be seeing a chart. Thanks for your help! Any chart interpretions are appreciated!
Sincerely, Bob :^)

Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!

AKLM experienced a severe mark-down phase from 6 to 1.47. But the stock recently gapped. A gap says "buy me." But I'd not mortgage the ranch. I have no notion of where AKLM may eventually go, but if you're seeking a trade always keep in mind that it's the %move that's important. Thus, at 1.50 a 10% gain is 15 cents. Again, I don't know your trading "style" so I'm hesitant to suggest too much. But you know you're style and I asume you'll trde accordingly.

TARO looks like a decent chart. My comment this morning resulted from the recent 53% move...and that it looked like a short for a day or two...just looking for a day's pay.

bbgold: It's important when asking a question to let me know how you like to trade: do you prefer day-trading, swing trading, londer-term trading? Are you7 comfortable on the short side? Are you fairly new to trading or are you an experienced trader. Are you aggressive or mor conservtive? Do you use stops? scaled-dow stops? The more you can tell me, the better I can help you, assuming of course that I can help you. And if I can't "read" the chart, I'll tell you so. Above all, I would hope hat you trade inh a manner that is "comfortable" to you: this helps to make better tading decisions...and profits.

Thanks Lee!
Yes, it definitely looks like a pullback would make for a good entry point to go Long. I think that I will be watching to see if the markets hold up here going through Sept though. Sept until Jan is usually good for the gaming stocks.
Good Luck Lee! :^)

Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!

bbgold: I suspect that ERTS may pu8ll back to 61.50-62...I'd look for possible entry here if the charts indicates a temporary trading bottom.

bbgold: ERTS has run fom 54 to just under 66 in 10 trading days, a 22% move. Today the stock is putting in an inside-day. This suggests that the run is temporarily over. also, the stock is well above the rising 10/20 day m/a. I'd look for ERTS to pull back.

Thanks for your kind comments bbgold. What I like most about ERST is that is near all-time high territory in what has been a vicious bear mrket. Stocks making new all-time highs in this market are a sector often overlooked...and many of these chats can be traded from the long side. Let me look at other ERTS time frames.

Hi Lee, Great Board!
I was looking at your TARO and wondering if it is not in a Handle here and getting ready for a breakout? Could you look at ERTS for me and let me know if it is overbought and at resistance? I am contemplating a Put on it but from here until Christmas is usually where a lot of the gaming stocks are usually strongest. Following that note I would also appreciate your opinion on AKLM and the potential for a continuation or if it also is at Resistance.
TIA, Bob :^)

Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!

If you have any question regarding a stock you're in, or a position that you are contemplating please ask. Or you can e-mail me at leekramer@rcn.com...I'll get back to you and give you my best.

AYZ: This is a low-volume stock. After a severe mark-down phase, (40 to 11.59) the stock put in a bear-trap, followed by a breakaway-gap. A breakaway-gap says "Buy me." A pullback the next day was followed by another gap, a "continuation" gap. This stock looks higher. It might take a while. But if you are patient, it might be nicely rewarding.

NLS, the former DFXI, has yet to pull back. I'll wait, be patient. I suspect that it will react, offering a nice entry. NLS is one fine looking chart.

MLNM and MYGN, (discussed yesterday) continue to pull back. Still waiting for an entry.

TARO: The stock has run from 21.50 to 33, a 53% move. TARO is also a very nice chart, but for the past three days there has been no upside follow-through. Volume has been declining as the price has moved higher. This is a warning signal: price and volume should move together. TARO looks like a short today. My "target" is 30 to 31.15. If you short this one, you might want to cover "half" of your position when a day's pay occurs. And of course it would be prudent to enter a buy-stop in case the trade goes wrong. Trades sometimes DO go wrong.

CCMP: The stock has run from 36.6 to 49.97, a 36% move. This is a very nice chart, but at this price it is well above the rising 10/20 moving average: an indication that the stock is "overbought," i.e., that buyers have rcently run amok. CCMP appears to be a short today, espcially if it opens higher. I'd rate the probability of a short profit at 70%, not a bad "edge." Just a day-trade and a day's pay.

Just a reminder: NLS is the former DFXI. The symbol was changed when the move to the NYSE was affected 2-3 months ago. Also, you might want to look at the ESG% which is outstanding, the float and the short interest ratio.

MYGN, MLNM and NLS have put in classic bottoms after severe mark-down phases. MLNM and NLS exhibit re-accumulation "Head and Shoulder" bottoms. MYGN has, after a severe mark-down phase, traded "sideways" for two and a half months. This stock is entering a new mark-up phase, typified by higher highs and higher lows. MLNM may back off a bit, but appears to be a buy on weakness. It closed at 13.49 today, (8/19). Scale-down buy orders from 13.50 to 12.50 may prove worthile and profitable. NLS after a 50% decline in price put in a classic H&S bottom and ran hard from 22.73 to 31.59, a 39% gain. But NLS is well above it's rising 10 and 20 day moving average. I anticipate a reacton back to 28.60-29.10. Additionally, NLS has options. If the stock pulls back the call options will similrly decline in price. The Sep and Oct calls look quite attractive. I like NLS. A lot.

CSCO has put in a nice trading bottom. The stock exhibited a 25% gain in the past 11 days. We saw a 10/20 m/a crossover four days ago. But the run to today's intra-day high of 15 was well above the 10 and 20 day moving average. This action suggests that CSCO is temporarily "overbought" and will likely pull back, within the framework of an uptrend. I bought the Sep 15 put options as CSCO ran powerfully this morning. The stock closed at 14.72. I'm looking for the stock to back off: 13.15 on the low side to 13.70.