Dennis Gartman: Germany To Tell EU ‘We’re Out!’
Published: Monday, 23 May 2011 | 6:43 PM ET Text Size By: Lee Brodie
Producer

Twitter LinkedInMore Share


If you’re watching developments in Greece, Italy, Portugal or the other PIIGS of Europe, you may be distracted from the real story.

According to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, most investors are betting which of the troubled nations gets kicked out of the EU first.

But he says, don’t be surprised if Germany just packs its bags and walks away. “I think what ends up happening is that Germany says we’re out. We’ve had enough.”

Gartman’s thesis is quite simple. He thinks Germany is tired of paying everybody’s bills.



”They had to spend billions 20 years ago to bring their Eastern neighbors back into the fold. And now they have to pay for the Italians, the Greeks and everyone else. I think they’re getting very upset with this.”

Although Dennis Gartman’s forecast may sound far-fetched, it’s not the first time the idea landed on the table. In December 2010 – somebody else made a similar remark – German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Although she wasn’t addressing exactly the same circumstances her comments are still quite relevant.

"If this is the sort of club the euro is becoming, perhaps Germany should leave," Merkel said, according to Britain’s The Guardian, at an EU summit dinner in Brussels.


(EUR=X)
Loading... (%)





In all fairness Merkel was pushing to re-open the Lisbon treaty and establish some new rules governing bailouts, but nonetheless, her comments were hardly sugar coated.

And if you watch Fast Money regularly you know that for quite a while now Gartman has been skeptical of the EU’s ability to survive.

Back in November 2010, he grabbed headlines by forecasting the demise of the euro with the 'reasonably viable' north and "ill managed' south splitting into two.

”Have the fundamental issues facing Europe – the philosophical problems, the productivity problems, the problems with the banks – have those problems gone away? Not at all.”

That doesn't mean Germany is out of the EU this week. Gartman doesn't even think it happens this year.

“Is it going to happen Tuesday, No! But I do think it happens in the next 2 to 3 years. The philosophical troubles facing Europe are only going to get worse and worse.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43143883/

OIL FUTURES: Crude Range-bound, Retraces Earlier Losses

By Sarah Kent

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Oil futures retraced earlier losses Wednesday, though the market remained mired in range-trading.

"Brent is stuck in a trading range of $108-$113 a barrel, moving as currencies bob around and news headlines are released," said Christopher Bellew, energy broker at Bache Commodities.

At 0958 GMT, the front-month June Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was three cents lower at $112.50 a barrel. The front-month July contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading down 27 cents, or 0.3%, at $99.32 a barrel.

Investors seemed to have dismissed the risks posed by volcanic ash from the Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs' upgrades to their oil price forecasts earlier in the week also seemed to buoy sentiment.

However, a weak euro weighed on prices, preventing the market from moving substantially higher.

Moves of the euro against the dollar are significant for investors in the oil market as oil is denominated in dollars, so a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

At 0958 GMT The euro was at $1.40736 from $1.4100 late Tuesday in New York.

Data from the U.S. Department of Energy, due 1430 GMT, will be closely watched by investors for clues as to the health of oil demand in the world's biggest consumer of the commodity.

Crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 1.2 million barrels, according to a survey of analysts by Dow Jones Newswires. Gasoline stockpiles are seen falling by 100,000 barrels and stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to remain unchanged.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, released late Tuesday showed a steep build in gasoline stocks, helping to take the wind out of a brief rally seen in the oil market after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley upped their price forecasts. If the DOE report shows any surprise builds fresh moves lower should be expected.

"Overall, the API wasn't the kind of report that will turn you in an overnight believer of $130-a-barrel oil," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Swiss consultancy Petromatrix, in a note. "Instead, for today it says to be careful on gasoline length before the DOE weekly report."

At 0958 GMT, the ICE's gasoil contract for June delivery was up $1.50, or 0.2%, at $920.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for June delivery was 222 points, or 0.7%, lower at $2.9706 a gallon.

-By Sarah Kent, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9376; sarah.kent@dowjones.com

2011-05-23 Crude Oil TD Sequential

2011-05-23 Silver TD Sequential

UCO - 5 min Candlesticks

see the tunnel
but 1st res. at 46.26

am gone havin a drink with a friend - see ya during the weekend

"Crude Oil has broken fb (fibonacci) downward retracement support (0.382) of $97.77 with a high probability of going down near fb downward retracement support (0.618) of $87.23. ""

having that impression too ..

hi budd - today's chart telling u' ?

Prada Gets Regulator OK For Up To US$2 Billion Hong Kong IPO - Source

Italian fashion house Prada SpA received regulatory approval Thursday for its plan to launch an initial public offering that could raise as much as US$2 billion ahead of a Hong Kong listing in June, a person familiar with the situation said Friday.

The company aims to begin bookbuilding for institutional investors in the second week of June, the person said.

Prada is planning to sell a 20% stake in the family-run company during the IPO.

Once the application is approved, the next steps typically involve informal meetings to gauge potential interest, followed by formal pitches to investors and a listing, all of which are usually completed within a six-week period.

Prada said in January its board hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Intesa Sanpaolo unit Banca Imi, Unicredit SpA andCrédit Agricole SA to handle the deal.

-By Prudence Ho, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2802-7002; prudence.ho@dowjones.com

2011-05-19 GOLDS TD Sequential

Gold is slightly different... it hasn't broken any fb support. However, if all other commodities head lower, expect Gold to correlates...

Notice the TDST suppport (green dotted line) at $1,471.68. If this line turns solid green, Gold will continue to head higher and would probably break fb upward retracement support of 0.382 at $1,506.43 all the way to 0.618 at $1,533.60

However, if it breaks the green line at $1,471.68 it will create a TDST resistance marker (red dotted line) on the chart in between $1,471.68 and fb downward retracement support at $1,320.69. If it turns solid, then it will be a confirmed breakdown and we may see Gold at $1,320.69 worst case scenario.

But as of now, we haven't seen it...

2011-05-19 CLA (Crude Oil) TD Sequential

Crude Oil has broken fb (fibonacci) downward retracement support (0.382) of $97.77 with a high probability of going down near fb downward retracement support (0.618) of $87.23.

Before doing that, it may touch fb retracement upward support at 0.382 at $102.35

2011-05-19 SLV TD Sequential

SLV has broken 0.382 fb downward retracement support at $35.5280..

Though it looks like it is on a rebound, high probability that it will go down soon near 0.618 fb downward retracement support of $26.7170...

It may go up first to fb retracement upward support at 0.382 at $38.9889....

Gold - Soros Exit Weighs On Gold, Silver
NEW YORK, May 17, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --
By Tatyana Shumsky

Precious metals fell Tuesday on a stronger dollar and negative investor sentiment in the wake of hedge-fund titan George Soros' exit from the gold market.

The most actively traded contract, for June delivery, was recently down $10.90, or $0.7%, at $1,479.70 per troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Thinly traded May-delivery gold was up $1.10, or 0.1%, at $1,491.50 per troy ounce.

Soros Fund Management, the hedge fund owned by billionaire investor George Soros, has sold around 99% of its gold holdings, a late Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed. The fund sold 4.7 million shares of physical-gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), reducing its holding to just 49,400 shares, valued at $6.9 million at March 31.

The news sapped confidence among gold investors as Soros had led the charge on gold over the past two years, aggressively purchasing the precious metal after dubbing it "the ultimate asset bubble."

"I assume he was sitting on a gigantic mountain of profit in that position and the prudent thing to do would've been to book some of it," said Matt Zeman, head of trading at Kingsview Financial. "Because he's leaving you're going to see a lot of small speculators jumping ship."

A moderately stronger dollar also pressured precious metals prices lower. Gold and silver futures denominated in dollars seem more expensive to holders of foreign currencies when the dollar strengthens.

The ICE Dollar Index was recently at 76.000, up from 75.612 late Monday in New York.

Silver prices weakened on the news, with silver for July delivery, the most actively traded contract, down 80.7 cents, or 2.4%, at $33.325 per troy ounce. May-delivery silver was down 44.9 cents, or 1.3%, at $33.680 per troy ounce.

Silver futures are still fragile as investors remain jittery after the early-May price correction that wiped 27% off silver's value, knocking prices off 31-year highs.

"Around that $30 level you may see it halt the bleeding, I think we're getting closer to that," said Zeman.

-By Tatyana Shumsky, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3095; tatyana.shumsky@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-17-11 0951ET

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/1/4/158836941.html

in an hour

when u gonna be online?

great / hold that way'

hahahhahaa, yup, from 9:52 a.m -- 10:03 a.m, i made more then people do in 1 week, LOLOLOLOL.

holly molly bro - 1/3 of salary in a few seconds - LOL*

60 pip flip on the last little run, now im in for a 15 pip short,

an it just hit my limit

75 pips - 8 pip on 2 trades, 67 pip profit


who trades stocks anymore?? LMAO

u making $$$ bro ?

crude is bouncing right now, but it hit 96.30

StockTiger $SLV http://chart.ly/mxbpc7v 60-min chart with today's Pivot and trend lines - Market Wrap and watch list http://st2.biz/1705wrap

Oil falls to below $99 as US dollar rallies
Oil falls to below $99 in Asia as US dollar strengthens


tweet17EmailPrintAlex Kennedy, Associated Press, On Sunday May 15, 2011, 11:26 pm EDT
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell below $99 a barrel Monday in Asia as crude became more expensive for investors with other currencies amid a U.S. dollar rally.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 84 cents to $98.81 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at $99.65 per barrel Friday, up 68 cents.

In London, Brent crude for June delivery was down 44 cents to $113.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil has retreated from a 30-month high near $115 at the beginning of the month as the dollar has strengthened.

"Crude oil continues to shadow the dollar to a large degree," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report. "We still look for high negative correlation between the dollar and oil."

The euro fell to $1.4089 from $1.4110 late Friday. The euro reached $1.49 earlier this month.

Analysts are also closely watching for signs that soaring U.S. fuel costs -- gasoline tops $4 a gallon in some areas -- are undermining crude consumption.

President Barack Obama said Saturday the U.S. would ramp up oil production by extending existing leases in the Gulf of Mexico and off Alaska's coast and holding more frequent lease sales in a federal petroleum reserve in Alaska. However, Obama said the measures wouldn't immediately bring down gasoline prices.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil fell 1.6 cents to $2.93 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.7 cent to $3.01 a gallon. Natural gas futures were steady at $4.25 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gm all. GL in todays trading day.

gm rbd

gm board..

da KAiser has a board

XMDC has been making its moves in anticipation of news. The legal part has been unofficially ended with a report of a successful mediation. I expect the stock to be hot for a few days.

If anyone here doesn't know about the BioHarp, well, let's say this is going to be a real money maker.

HSCC gaining interest

Verde Media's ticker symbol (currently HMIT) will be changing; cusip change is finished. Filming is done for "Cowboy Mining" and is in post production. After the symbol has changed, we are expecting to see more news. A network deal is in the works for the pilot program. An equity buy of Astrablu is in the works, if it has not already been executed, but again, that will be delayed a bit until after the ticker symbol has changed. A private collection of films had been bought. I'm expecting to see nice numbers in the near to intermediate future.

The new movie comes out on Sept 24th or 26th? As for my stock of the next few yrs, look at GMO. When they put that shovel in the ground for the first time, which i believe is about 2 1/2 yrs away, the stock will be around $12 to $15 per share. They are sitting on the motherlode of 'moly'. In the meantime i continue to accumulate.

FLOAT LOCK DOWN: HSCC