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"How many times do you change projections on an average day?"
Probably an average of 2. The SPX 60 min P1 averages 5.54 trading hours and the 60 min P2 average 9.35 trading hours. The Daily P1 averages 5.36 trading days, the Daily P2 averages 8.86 trading days, the Weekly P1 averages 5.35 trading weeks, the Weekly P2 averages 11.06 trading weeks, the Monthly P1 averages 4.5 months and the Monthly P2 averages 14.43 months
northam - My guess is that almost all of your projections get negated. What good is that? How many times do you change projections on an average day? LMHO Pitiful, really pitiful. I forgot to put you back on ignore. I'll get it done this time.
Pokersam - You really need to get up to speed. The extended 60 min P1 was negated and that 60 min P2 I mentioned is now in play, right now it's an average 60 min P2 with a projected high of 1837.54 which has been exceeded.
"The only thing on the flow chart for tomorrow is a Daily P1. Then Wed a 60 min extended P1 low is due, the projected low is 1804.76, and then a 60 min P2 will be due and 60 min high, the current projected high is 1836.19, which would likely keep the Daily in P1, then Friday a Daily P1 low is currently projected, the current projected low is 1789.44, so not a lot going on this week, but all pretty much down hill."
Uh, we were up 20 today.
That is two days in a row. You called for a big gain and we went down 20. You called for down and we went up 20. No matter how you slice it your system is a loser and so are you for coming up with such a mess. Well, that is enough of this. I am sure the rest of the week will continue to show just what a loser you are. I am sure you have changed your position several times again today. It is no wonder you make so little money as a trader. I don't see how you make an average of 8.2% a year. Unless, of course you trade contrary to your system. Back on ignore.
Sorry northam43 but you are not even entertaining. I do think you were right about me not understanding your system. I think I have finally figured it out though. If your system projects down then you should go long. If your system projects up you should go short. Your system is what is known as a contrarian indicator. Your system projection for yesterday was a total opposite miss. If you had done the opposite of your system's projection you would have made a killing. We will have to wait and see how it does today.
Here is the projection for today and the rest of the week that you posted yesterday.
"The only thing on the flow chart for tomorrow is a Daily P1. Then Wed a 60 min extended P1 low is due, the projected low is 1804.76, and then a 60 min P2 will be due and 60 min high, the current projected high is 1836.19, which would likely keep the Daily in P1, then Friday a Daily P1 low is currently projected, the current projected low is 1789.44, so not a lot going on this week, but all pretty much down hill."
But according to you 3 years ago we were going into a Big Bear! I suppose in another 3 years you will have some new insights of what I should have done the last 3 years. You sure don't know what is going to happen in the next 3 years.
After your system totally missed its projection for today we will look at its projection for tomorrow and the rest of the week.
"The only thing on the flow chart for tomorrow is a Daily P1. Then Wed a 60 min extended P1 low is due, the projected low is 1804.76, and then a 60 min P2 will be due and 60 min high, the current projected high is 1836.19, which would likely keep the Daily in P1, then Friday a Daily P1 low is currently projected, the current projected low is 1789.44, so not a lot going on this week, but all pretty much down hill."
You are delusional my friend. I understand to some degree. You have invested years of work and effort developing your system. I realize how difficult it would be to abandon it after all this time. Just stop and think about this. Your returns would have been greater if you had put your money into an index fund three years ago and forgot about it.
How can it be me. You are the one who keeps beating a dead horse. If your system is broke, fix it. LOL You keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Your system not only totally missed the projection for today but it missed the direction. It is just too funny!! I think the only thing funnier is that there are some who say they like your system. Where did you find those people?? LMHO
northam43 - "Monday a 60 min extended and Daily extended P2 high is due, the projected high is 1872.91, then Wednesday a 60 min P1 is due and Thursday a Daily P1 is due"
What does this mean? Does it mean your system is projecting a high of 1872.91 today? Yes, I know that is what it says but I have a feeling that you do not say what you mean. Should I be long the markets based on your system's projection? What % of the time are your system's projections hit? I know that these projections are not yours but your systems. You have told me that you do not make projections. Your system does but you do not. But isn't the system yours? Are you not the author of your system. It seems to me that if your system seldom hits its projections then maybe there is something wrong with your system. If your system makes projections that are seldom hit, how can you say your system is working fine. So, should we lok for your systems projection to take place today or not? If not what good is the projection. If the projection is no good, what good is the system? Who is the real idiot here?
Pokersam - You really make things harder than they need to be. You seem lazy or lackadaisical in documenting your performance, which if you make as you say you do, would be to your benefit.
But comparing my trading system based on % return is not a true comparison of our systems your just using a different trading instrument than I am, which is much more riskier.
I don't trade options, which is how you trade. Options trading can be very profitable as you have pointed out. But options trading exposes the investor to much more risk and the losses could be tremendous, matter fact, my understanding is that some options are exposed to unlimited losses. I admit I know very little about options trading, I would imagine that if someone were to trade options using my system, they would probably do very well.
"Getting for free and expecting handouts without any cost has destroyed this country." I agree concerning welfare and disability, those people disgust me. But you are part of the problem as well, as you are basically trying to run a get rich quick scheme, and lets face it, you don't care about anyone else but you, you, and you.
"Your information and system would have to be free because no serious trader would consider a trading system that only produced an average of 8.2% a year for three years. You would have been better off parking your money in an index fund and never traded at all." You are entitled to your opinion, I served 21 years in the military to defend that right for you. Even though sometimes I wish it didn't apply to idiots like you.
northam43 - I posted my real time trades in the IBOX for 41 trading days this past year. I was up 107% when it ended. I guess you missed that. I know you would love to think that is not the norm with me but you are wrong. Fact is I could do that anytime. I just can't justify in my own mind doing it for nothing. I had to pay for my education and I think others should also. Life gives us very little for free and what it gives for free usually proves worthless if not a curse. Getting for free and expecting handouts without any cost has destroyed this country. A huge % of our population is sucking the lifeblood of this nation dry. Your information and system would have to be free because no serious trader would consider a trading system that only produced an average of 8.2% a year for three years. You would have been better off parking your money in an index fund and never traded at all. You say your system is working fine. You just have much lower expectations than any serious trader I know. Face it, the vast majority of so called traders on these boards are not serious traders at all. They are like you.
Pokersam - My system is working fine. Yes, I did not reach my goal last year, my record reflects that, I don't hide anything. But at least I have a record. You have nothing. Hopefully this year I will have a better year, I'm up .71% so I'm off to a good start.
I'm not all that bullish right now, I am looking for some major corrections this year, I'm expecting the market to be pretty volatile and likely new SPX highs will be made this year.
I see that you had a pretty crappy end of year call. I'm not surprised.
Actually over the last three years my system has averaged 8.2% return. Obviously a portfolio of $50,000 would only produce $4100 per year or $341 per month. Obviously you couldn't make a living off of that, so I would expect a person that had a $50,000 trading account would either have a real job or a retirement. Now if you had a portfolio of $500,000 and averaged a return of 8.2% that would produce about $41,000 per year or $3417 per month, now a person could live off that and I doubt a Walmart greeter makes that kind of money and if I was a full time trader I would definitely at least have an account of over $500,000.
As for improving SPX Cycles, I am always looking for ways to improve the system. Matter fact we now have the ability to project short and extended Phase 1 & Phase 2 cycles using the MACD (12,26,9) and EMA 3 to confirm the projections, we have also collected historical data for the short & extended cycles and have the 60 month average for the 60 min cycles and 120 month averages for the longer term cycles. You can view them here http://northamlindyjr.com/SPXCycles/SPXCycleReports/SPXCycleListofAverages.PNG The user id is spxcycles and the password is stock, it's FREE. If you want to review my other reports go here to my directory http://northamlindyjr.com/SPXCycles/SPXCycleReports/SpxCycleReportsWebpage.html
My website gets a lot of traffic and the average person spends about 28 minutes viewing the reports and it's all FREE. I don't need any donations/subscriptions to keep the site going.
Like I've said before, if you incorporated my system into your E-Wave, you would probably make better calls and make E-Wave look better and you wouldn't have to tell anyone. You don't have a record anyway.
northam43 - Well I see you are pretty bullish. I think is your last projection. Posted Saturday 1/4 "Bottom line: Looking for a short Daily correction possibly Monday & Tuesday, that could take the SPX Weekly down to it's UTL (EMA11,high), then possibly one more leg up for the Weekly (taking the SPX to new highs), before we get a Weekly correction, which would then take the SPX Monthly down to it's UTL (possibly by middle of Feb), then another leg up on the Monthly (taking the SPX again to new highs), then a Monthly correction around May."
We will see how that works out for you.
What I really wanted to check was your 2013 record. If I remember right you lost about 6% in 2011 and made about 25% in 2012. I am guessing you might have made back what you lost in 2011 so that means you are about plus 25% for three years of arduous work. Good night man, have you ever stopped to consider what you make an hour. Why don't you become a greeter at Wal Mart and get a raise. heh heh Of course I understand that we are all different and 8% average a year might seem great to you. Since your yearly goal is only 25% and you are only missing it by about 66% I guess you are happy. Good luck in the future. It is a brand new year and maybe you will do better this year. Personally I think you need to fix your system because it definitely is not working.
northam43 - Thanks for the response. 5.97% YTD Oh well. I think if I remember right year before last was around 3%. Actually let's face it. 25.92% in a year is pitiful. Yes, your system is an abject failure. You are a failure as a trader. It is really comical. Probably the most comical thing about it is that you don't realize it. Well, back on ignore you go. Maybe I'll check in on you in a few months. Merry Christmas
You tell more and more about yourself every time you post.
I post the results of my system regardless of the outcome. Why would I want to mislead anyone? Those that don't like my results are free to go else where. As of today my facebook group has 56 members, the high has been 57.
You on the other hand, according to what you have said in this post ("I just don't understand why in the world you would post that kind of failure rate."), obviously are not as truthful. Matter fact I have never seen any valid results of your performance. Which I don't understand, if your performance has been so good, why are you not documenting it and posting it? Are you not intelligent enough? If I was trying to produce something to sell, I would have documentation like a prospectus.
I don't consider my system a failure. Last year I had a 25.92% this year so far 5.97%, averages out to a 15.95% over the last two years. It is low this year because the long term Phase 2 cycles are extending and I sold off my longs and have been adding short positions that are currently underwater, but I expect to be profitable next year during the Monthly correction.
As for you pointing out the accuracy of my cycle target projections. Those projections are merely reference points. They play a small part in the overall SPX Cycles System.
northam43 - I took you off ignore this morning because I was curious about how you were doing this year. In the past you would post your YTD percent that your account was up or down. I could not find anything. I understand you not posting it any longer because it was always an embarrassment for you. As I said, I understand perfectly if you would rather not tell me. I did find one interesting post of yours.
"Murray - My 60 min Phase 1 targets are reached or exceeded 33% of the time and my 60 min Phase 2 targets are reached or exceeded 37% of the time.
My Daily Phase 1 targets are hit 31%, Daily Phase 2 42%
Weekly Phase 1 30%, Weekly Phase 2 55%
Monthly Phase 1 & Phase 2 are at 50%"
LOL Hitting targets with that level of accuracy explains why 2-3% is considered a good year for you. I don't see how you ever put in a positive year. I just don't understand why in the world you would post that kind of failure rate. If I did that poorly year in and year out I would never post again. Just think how bad those who admire your work must do. I do have to commend you on that one thing. You have always been a wretched liar when it comes to other things but you are honest about your own failure.
So, what is your YTD record this year trading your system? A few months back it was around 3% if I remember correctly. If it is too embarrassing to post I understand. heh heh
I will leave you off ignore to reply for today only.
Not showing any signs of a major correction. It is currently in a projected extended Phase 2. In simple terms, means it's probably going to exceed it's Monthly averages to the upside. Since I don't track AAPL, I don't have the average data.
All I can say right now is, I would hold AAPL until it dropped below the AAPL Monthly EMA 3, which is currently at 545.13
"opinionated - Welcome. Look forward to your opinions. I want all to feel comfortable expressing their views here without fear of attacks. Some seem to have a problem with that. I have corrected things so that should not be a problem in the future."
I see that you now have 16 bans, you banned da chief because he is making you look bad. The only opinions you want to hear are those that agree with you.
Let me give you an update on AAPL since you don't have a clue.
Right now it is in a 60 min & Daily correction. The Weekly is currently indicating an extended Phase 2, the Monthly is currently indicating a short Phase 2, but that is likely to change to average next month if the AAPL Monthly EMA 3 crosses above the AAPL monthly UTL.
JLS - Once again you have demonstrated your stupidity. LOL I seem to have missed you on my "real" ignore list. Life has been so much more pleasent with all of the kooks ignored. I highly recommend using the ignore feature. If someone is just too stupid to tolerate, ignore them. If someone is just a psychotic jerk, ignore them. If someone is an arrogant bore, ignore them. And by all means, the pseudo intellectuals who are really crackpots, such as yourself, need to be ignored. LMHO
Then, after northam43 insisted that Pokersam post his prediction first, Pokersam responded (my bold for emphasis):
I posted mine in the Trading Pit already so I can't change it. I will post it here before the deadline. You are not going to post one are you? I really didn't expect you to. Your stupid system is no help to you … In the final analysis you and your system are losers … Come on, dummy, no guts no glory.
Then Pokersam went on to ridicule northam43 further in later messages.
Finally, Pokersam wrote of himself in the message board Intro (my bold for emphasis):
It is not flattering to a man's character to yield to his baser instincts and take pleasure in humiliating those of lesser abilities.
Could there possibly be a man of great abilities who makes such an arrogant statement in his confessions? No. It makes his confession hollow.
Further on in the message board Intro, Pokersam wrote:
I have placed many of these individuals on ignore and I will endeavor to be free enough to leave them there.
That statement begs the question: why is a Moderator of an Open Board putting anybody on that board on ignore? That certainly would not be a Moderator of any great abilities. A good Moderator is supposed to be able to listen to anybody, and actively and effectively moderate them when moderation is required. Failing to do that, a good Moderator would realize his limitations and remove himself as Moderator.
Furthermore, the post outlining the contest was made a yellow sticky note by none other than Pokersam.
So, Poker, where is your prediction? It's way past August.
Or, if there is no contest, don't you think you should take the sticky note down? A person like yourself, a person of great abilities, should know to do those things without being told. I'm pretty sure that a good board Moderator would know to take that sticky note down.
That is a normal human response. Humans have the habit of ignoring what they are incapable of understanding.
The above statement was made by Poker within Post #1327 in response to my decision to ignore him.
Now, within the iBox, Poker states he has decided to ignore everyone else posting at the Open Board (while still insisting that everyone else has "lesser abilities" than he).
Apparently, Poker also doesn't understand irony.
Poor Poker ... he really does have trouble understanding pretty much everybody and everything. So he's off pouting in his dark Pit. When he finally emerges he will be sporting a new and more dampened and moldy outlook on life.
Northram, The previous competitions between you and Poker was totally one sided as Poker made up the rules stacked in his favor. I didn't think he would take up your challenge as it was too fair and he would have to get extremely lucky to have any chance against you.
northam - I have thought a lot about you today. I have decided to stop making fun of you. Call it conscience if you want. Fact is I feel bad about it. My opinion of you has not changed one iota. But, in reality, you cannot help being what you are. You are not real bright and I feel bad taking advantage of you. So you can rave on, or whatever you want to do, but I am going to try very hard to forget you exist. Engaging in this back and forth any longer is just not the way I want to go. So, you have a great life. Good Bye POKERSAM
Pokersam, probably not. Your just a trouble maker.
My system is working fine. I have not missed any hourly projections, the hourly projections are based on averages that the system, not I generate. The projections sometimes are not reached and then other times they will be exceeded. During the month of June the 60 min Phase 2 exceeded it's projected high 5 out of the 6 cycles that month. The Daily Phase 2 will only reach it's projected high 6 or 7 times a year. The Weekly Phase 2 projected high was 1708.19, the current high is 1709.67, so that projected high has been exceeded, so the next Weekly Phase 2 will likely not reach it's projected high. The SPX Monthly Phase 2 has exceeded it's projected high by 250.94 points, the next Monthly Phase 2 will likely be closer to it's average. If my memory serves me correctly you were a Bear when the SPX Monthly Phase 2 was confirmed, http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71034027
The main objective of my system is identifying the long term direction of the market.
Right now the SPX Monthly is due a correction, that will be a major event when it starts, but when will it occur? Is it starting now? The SPX Weekly may start a Phase 1 correction this week, however, the Daily is due a Phase 2 this week, which could negate the Weekly Phase 1 this week, for a Monthly Phase 1 to start next month the SPX has to get below 1593 by the end of the month, right now the Monthly price is above the Monthly EMA 3 which indicates a strong Phase 2 up trend is still in tact. By the end of the year the SPX could be in a Monthly Phase 1 correction, the SPX low could be between 1498 to 1579, or we could be at the start of a new Monthly Phase 2, which the SPX would then likely be around 1650 to 1700 with a projected high of around 1800, or the SPX Monthly can remain in it's current Phase 2, a get to maybe a high of 1750. So to give you a number as to where the SPX will be at the end of the year, will be like buying a lottery ticket. I don't buy lottery tickets.
Now if you want to do a challenge, lets trade using our systems for 3 months from September 5th to November 29th, no options trading, we each start at a balance of $50,000, as of September 5th, we trade only SPXL or SPXS, each trade (buy/sell) costs $10, must post trades in real time (within 1 or 2 minutes of the actual price to give time for it to be posted), also explain in next post how the trade was made in relation to your system. I will update and post a spreadsheet each day after the close (unless I am out) showing the status of yours & my account based on what was posted to the board that day, using SPX Cycles Portfolio as a format.
At the close of the market on November 29th, whoever has the largest balance (includes stock value & cash on hand) wins.
If I win, you will terminate your I-hub account, if you win I will terminate my I-hub account.
I believe the conditions are fair and on a level playing field with total transparency
The deadline for agreeing to this challenge is August 25th, that is so an I-hub board can be established, "Pokersam E-Wave vs Northam43 SPX Cycles", we both can be moderators.
northam = I posted mine in the Trading Pit already so I can't change it. I will post it here before the deadline. You are not going to post one are you? I really didn't expect you to. Your stupid system is no help to you. You have missed your hourly projections 15 straight times in a row. Hard to tell how many misses you have in other time frames. Over the last year it has to be in the high hundreds. I understand if you do not want to embarrass yourself. That is it, right? Deep down you know your system is worthless. All of the reports, flowcharts, and obfuscations cannot hide the truth forever. In the final analysis you and your system are losers. This is your chance to show that you can get something right for a change. Come on, dummy, no guts no glory. I will post mine and I am taking a big chance. I have a Super Bear count and a Super Bull count. It doesn't matter right now because they are both moving in tandem. But eventually one will be confirmed and the other invalidated. I am picking one now. This means that if I pick the wrong one I will miss by a mile and I will know it long before the end of the year. Man up, dummy. I am crawling out on a limb, are you going to run away like a little girl? You know that if you don't enter I will never let you forget it.
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