SHOP daily Point & Figure chart -

http://c.stockcharts.com/pnf/chart?c=SHOP,PFTBDBNRBO[PA!B15][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=5252&pnf=y

* reports eps before market open, May 6, 2020
* Zacks rating is #2,
and Zacks expects a positive earnings surprise
is more likely than not ....

though my read of the Zacks' rating article is
not to be overly confident that positive surprise will
occur on May 6th

** several unfilled gaps occur below Friday's closing price for
SHOP,
though my trading friends believe
SHOP will never again see the $203 to $216/219 level in which I have an interest
in adding to current size of my holdings .. even though
I do move with some degree of frequency in and out
of 100% of my
SHOP holdings

SPY sellers need to defend the 210.56 level during bounces rest of today -- see the 15min chart

* SPXEW has already tested and briefly held the November 3rd low, while SPY has yet to complete the test from above

SPY day low so far is 210.01 which matches the value of the 60min rising 21sma -- buyers need to defend the rising 21sma on the 60min chart during future pullbacks

updated SPXEW 2-hour chart -

* Alert - SPXEW has been unable to firmly hold above its 200-day sma, except briefly this week

$3242 = the SPXEW 200-day sma

TWX - actually holding below $70.70 will represent a bearish confirm using horizontals on the daily chart -- now back within the lower daily BB

TWX guided lower for 2016 in today's earnings CC

the 15min chart is OverSold at today's low print of 69.27

DIS and other names in the sector are also down more than 1% today

ES futures 2114 to 2119 = possible upside pause locations, when seen

unfilled gap at 2114.75

hi loanwolf - thank you for visiting this forum and for your
good cheer!

John Bollinger content is showing up now at the CMC blog -

http://blog.cmcmarkets.com.au/technical-analysis/bollinger-bands/guest-post-by-john-bollinger/

TSLA must hold above 232.40's to confirm a buy --- on the daily chart setup

reported eps tonight ... 233.14 printing now

exited VXX long -- 18.30's

SPXEW is now in extremely rare chart locations relative to the 21,2 and 50,2 upper Bollinger Bands on the daily chart
( price is now considerably above the upper BB's as of 2:16 pm eastern )

* see the %B's for efficient comparison to prior history

VXX long - 1/2 lot size purchased at 17.86 to 17.88

reserve the other 1/2 lot for VXX entry below 17.48 if seen this week

VXX = S&P 500 VIX short-term futures

1st upside target that is possible is above 18.20
------------

the intraday volatility and upside risk may actually increase in the next few days as this one S&P 500 internals metric rises to its prior 2015 high region:

daily chart for the % of S&P 500 components above their 50-day ema:

* in addition, the chart setup for the RSP:SPY ratio bodes for an increase in price volatility, near-term

SPY buyers need to defend the 210.46 level during pullbacks from the new day high here at 211.06.

211.89 = the next potential upper pause location on the daily chart

the daily "continuation buy" setup remains intact only while price remains above the 210.46 level -- see the daily chart

likely bullish that: it is a light volume rally today at 45.6 Million shares traded as of 1:35 pm eastern

November through December price advances on light volume is a "normal" characteristic

Nice charts here, very interesting observation with use of 50,2 bollinger band setting.

Now I have one more thing to wrestle with lol, J/K good info here, kudos !!!

S&P 500 Advance-Decline breadth line achieves a new all-time high today -- by a slight margin

* based on only the 2015 history, when the A-D breadth line tests its daily 50,2 upper Bollinger Band, a breadth and price pullback for the SPX index takes places within 1 to 7 trading days ... while a much different chart event took place in the October to mid-December 2014 period when the Bollinger Band width expanded throughout that period (see chart #2)

chart #1 - marks today's A-D new all-time high with a brown H line



chart #2 - XLK A-D breadth line also achieved a new all-time high today

ES-F Floor Pivots For Nov. 3rd day session:


R3 2139.50

R2 2114.75

R1 2104.75

PP 2090.00

S1 2080.00

S2 2065.25

S3 2040.50

FIT - long below 38.00 tonight following eps

size

the 15min SPY chart remains on a "continuation buy" setup, for now

* even though the SPXEW has bumped its head and paused here at its 200-day sma

210.31 = the level for maintaining the continuation buy signal, right now

QQQ has already failed to maintain the setup, and needs to press higher to regain the setup

SPXEW day high today is approx. 2 points
below the 200dsma, whose value is:
3241.74

SPXEW $3228.86 upper 21,2 daily BB vs. 3229.59 day high, so far

3228.56 = the March daily close low

* be alert for a potential BB tap and down, which may play out from this upper level

* FYI - it will be a bullish clue for some more upside only if the Bollinger Band continues to expand, and SPXEW actually closes today above the upper Bollinger Band

SPXEW daily closes chart -

* with three %B's added

SPY 209.95 = less than 20 daily closes achieved in the May to July period above the 209.95 level, and not seen for daily closes since July

* no major horizontal breakout in the upper levels takes place until price resides back above the 209.95 level for daily closes

* 208.82 = value of the rising 4-day sma which buyers must defend during future pullbacks, especially at each day's close

SPY 209.69 = the potential tap and down setup using one of the daily SPY upper Bollinger Band values at this moment - I have exited both day trade and swing long SPY positions and reversed to day trade short just now ... will not stay short if much distance above 209.69 is achieved later

* buyers need to defend pullbacks to 209.62 in order to keep the push to even higher prices intact the rest of today -- see the 15min chart

SPXEW $3223.78 = the March intraday low

* which is now of high interest because that potential horizontal resistance is slightly below the current values of the upper Bollinger Band 21,2 and 50,2 settings shown in the daily chart below:



chart #2 - updated SPY 30-min chart using 20,2.5 BB settings:

CMG daily chart -

* the unfilled gaps below are marked with orange
dashed lines

* October 31 - CMG closes 43 stores in WA and OR while an E. coli investigation is conducted

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2015/10/31/chipotle-closes-43-northwest-locations-amid-e-coli.html?ana=yahoo

* since the earnings release, eight consecutive days below the lower 50,2 Bollinger Band is a continuation sell signal

* one highly responsive method for not leaving the "sell short" trade setup too early is to monitor the daily RSI-2 and RSI-5 during the trading day and not exit the short trade unless an expected daily close above the 50 to 60 levels is obvious

rimshot thanks so much

SPY daily - 3 different Bollinger Band settings:

using the 15, 21 and 50 moving average as the BB centerline

* the direction of the NYAD's 7 ema, and whether it resides above or below the zero line influences the SPY price direction



chart #2 -

* the S&P 1500 index this week is testing the price level of
the December 26, 2014 high

* the uptrend has lasted all of October for the net new highs minus new lows for the S&P 1500 index -- bullish for the SPY price action until this trend actually reverses to the downside

thank you very much for letting me know you profited from the AAPL trade setup. Feedback at these boards is rare, and having an actual trader participate is much appreciated.

for the SPY directional clues next week, the SPXEW 2-hour chart will continue to be helpful. Notice the tap and down from the upper Bollinger Band on Friday -

* and the 10ema contained the pullback at day's end

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118055009

please make sure you read my guidance for how to use the SPY and QQQ 5-min chart settings posted here to assist with scalping -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83294940

Great call on AAPL several tradeable put scalps today

S&P 500 Advance-Decline breadth line updates after
each day's close:

* the Advance-Decline line is superior to nearly all indicators other than price direction for determining a profitable trade direction

* since the XLF and XLK A-D lines achieved new all-time highs this week, the A-D line for the index needs to achieve new highs in the near future, or the XLF and XLK A-D lines will likely retrace some to the downside

** pullbacks for the A-D line need to be defended at the %b's .50 line in order to maintain a probable advancing structure for the A-D line and SPY price action

chart #1 -



chart #2 for the S&P 500 index -

* not much distance remains overhead for the A-D line to achieve new
highs



=================

207.70's -- covered SPY short

second day trade on the short side today

SPY buyers need to defend 207.91 on the 30-min chart, if seen today prior to 8 pm eastern time, or some stop running below that level is probable

SPY sellers must defend 208.30's on this bounce, or we are able to upside target 208.70 next ... I reshorted this bounce

buyers need to defend the SPXEW 3196.51 level when next tested

AAPL pullback from today's 121.22 high is likely to see more downside, because the 60-min Stochastics are in sell mode since October 29th, and were negatively divergent vs. the higher price high at the time today's 121.22 was printed

ES futures long-term trend channel as described
today by Tim Haefke video:

* the ES-F has recaptured the lower channel line

it is important to the continued bullish case, that the lower parallel channel line is held by future daily closes

SPXEW new day highs are being achieved today a few moments ahead of the SPY new day highs ... this is a very useful clue for directional reliability and staying power when the SPXEW is leading the SPY price action

I suggest a 3-minute or 1-minute chart displaying the SPY, $SPXEW and $TICK (smooth the $TICK with the 3ema on the 1-min chart, and make the $TICK bars invisible)

$3214.56 = the SPXEW early July daily close low

$3228.56 = the next key level above

buyers need to defend $3202 during future pullbacks, especially for daily closes

actually holding above the 3202 to 3214 levels will be very constructive for the future advancing price structure

chart #1 plots the daily closes



chart #2 displays the % of S&P 500 components above the 50-day ema, and is now at levels not seen since January to May, 2015

* bullish for the SPY price action if this metric holds above approx. 60% during future pullbacks

SPY sellers need to defend 208.98, one key horizontal, today and in future days, or any day high is possible

SPY day low = 208.39 vs. 4-day sma at 208.31 -- sellers need to downside violate the 4-day sma for a future daily close, or the upward vertical price action will remain intact

ES-F -- the $2093.75 key upside level was achieved in today's overnight session, and is the probable area which will eventually be achieved again during a day session

building future price action that holds above the 2093.75 level is the next required bullish event to take place

* 2114.75 = one upper level of great interest based on Volume Profile

* holding above the ES 2050 to 2060's level in the future day sessions will be constructive ... if moderate stop running below the 2048/2047 level does not take place in November, the advancing structure could easily be vertical during November

repeated Summary:

ES-F price Magnets = one upper level is at 2093.75.
Low Volume node is at 2080.

ORLY - I plan to day trade it on Friday and/or next week:

* it has relatively small float size, and 6% of the float was short interest -- before this week's earnings report



monthly -

* Tim Knight has been writing at his Slope of Hope site a few times in the last six years when he has been fond of attempted ORLY shorts -- small float size often works against shorting, especially if too large of a % of the float is short

several AAPL upside levels I am watching in order to not leave AAPL swing long too early or too late:

122.91, 121.71,120.53,119.75

a future hold above 122.91 will be closely watched for the degree
of later retracements

$120.69 = today's October 29th high

* sellers need to downside violate the $113.80 to 114.60 zone to achieve deeply lower prices at a later date

SPY buyers must now defend 208.28 on the 30-min chart or the day low of 208.21 will likely be violated by some distance beyond mild stop running

the 30-min price pattern remains in a bullish setup, using the moving averages' slope direction at this moment ... nothing overly bearish has yet taken place

SPY - buyers must defend 207.77 today, the 4-day sma

buyers must defend 208.48 right now in order to avoid testing
the 208.31 a.m. low ... once violating the 208.48 level, sellers need to hold the price action below 208.48

209.14 is the level sellers must defend this a.m., and has been resistance area on the 2nd morning high

** the very short term charts have NOT yet confirmed a sell short configuration by the moving averages, but I am selling bounces so far today, based on the developing moving average pattern

** $3193.11 major Horizontal -- the SPXEW index has only tested its 1-month major daily close high breakout level from above, so nothing overly bearish is taking place at today's low, so far ***

QQQ buyers must defend 103.16 level, if seen today ... day low so far is 113.38

$NYA - today is the first daily close above the 100-day sma,
and the continued bullish case depends on the $NYA price
action eventually holding above the 100dsma for consecutive days

chart #1 -



chart #2 -

Bullish Percents index for the S&P 500 index is steadily advancing, and now resides near a key horizontal level which must be surpassed
(based on the 2010 to 2015 chart history)

* for the SPX price action to remain above its 100-day sma, the Bullish Percents index likely needs to remain above the 60% level

SPY 205.79 = the Oct. 27th low:

vs. 206.21 day low, so far today

* check out the SPY 30-min chart, it is very helpful again -- see the indicators and the price moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands

QQQ buyers must continue to defend 112.50 or today's intraday low at 112.34 will be re-tested or violated

sellers must defend bounces to 113.02 level ... back above 113.02 means any high of day remains possible

SPY buyers must defend 206.95, or much lower is possible

sellers must defend 207.82 bounces rest of today, or high may not be in

sellers lack downside staying power until SPXEW violates its key H line at $3167.24, and actually holds below this level

NDX daily with A-D lines:

see comments in the prior COMPQ post

COMPQ daily with A-D lines:

a hold above the 50,2 and 65,2 upper Bollinger Band will
be a probable bullish signature, if seen for consecutive days

* I have noticed this week that the media "guru's" are mistakenly using the current 50,2 Bollinger Band upside violation by COMPQ and NDX as an excuse to sell short the NQ futures

TWTR upside potential toward 31.14 level

sellers must defend 31.14 level, or higher is possible

30.89 day high as of 1:12 pm eastern

last night's lows near the $27.62 downside gap fill area which was NOT actually filled in today's cash market, was a "tell" that worked for a buying oppt'y last night

today's sector leadership: Energy XLE, Oil Service OIH, Crude Oil USO, Retail XRT, Bank KBE, Reg Bank KRE, Pharma PPH, Restaurant, Materials XLB, Telecom IYZ. Early laggard Biotech IBB is working off its low.

CL-F futures: 46.30 = probable volume resistance level, which sellers must defend or higher levels for crude oil futures are here to stay a while

chart #1 -

XLE daily closes chart with A-D breadth and volume lines:



chart #2 - XLE daily with McClellan indicators:

IBM sellers need to defend the 141.18 resistance level, or a steady push to higher levels is probable
==========

WBA is one leading % loser in the S&P 500 index today -- announced its acquisition of RAD on October 27th

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=

* the combined operation will fill over 1 billion prescriptions yearly, per one analyst

WBA weekly -

* 85.00 area, if seen, is a highly probable inflection level

SPY 207.60's and SPXEW 3184/3185 = key inflection level

SPXEW daily - closed once above this level during October at 3193.11 ...
this high close is the next potential upside target

buyers need to defend SPY 207.60's on pullbacks going forward

SPXEW 2-hour chart -

* no price bar closes below the 50sma since last week ...
see the 50,2 Bollinger Band in the upper chart element

* above the 50,2 upper Bollinger Band for consecutive price bars will represent a signature for continued upward direction ... there is significant upside room for 50,2 Bollinger Band expansion of the Band width

SPY daily with five other indices --
for monitoring the chart location within the
65,2 Bollinger Band

* pay attention to widening or narrowing Bollinger Bands,
and to the slope direction for the 65-day moving average
for each index

exit AAPL long above 114.30

I have 114.57 as must hold level for the very near-term bullish case

sellers must continue to defend bounce to and above 114.57 area, or any rally high during after hours is possible

buyers must defend AAPL $110 to $113.80 zone
========

fyi - tonight TWTR filled a lower downside gap in after hours -- see the daily chart

AAPL long 113.80's to .96 .. small size