Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
potential short squeeze on LEND, do your research carefully,
big short position, majority of shares already tendered, not much out there for the shorts to cover with, should be a helluva play, watch it carefully, imo.
LT
LEND has been one of the best plays yet, just got better, imo
Accredited, Lone Star Amend Agreement
link to article: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/accredited_home_lone_star.html?.v=1
LT
House passes mortgage plan
link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070918/ap_on_bi_ge/congress_mortgages
depending on the final rules that this bill will contain, it just might be big bailout that many subprime mortgage companies have been hoping for, this news should be watched very carefully, imo.
LT
if the Fed cuts rates, which is now broadly anticipated, then the mortgage companies we have been following will pop, some of the most likely candidates for a nice trade, imo:
LUM CFC, IMH and others previously mentioned on this board, do your research carefully and monitor your watch lists actively,
Make money!
LT
In addition to following the progress of subprime lenders who might present a good trading opportunity, I think we should also track any other industry that is closely allied to lenders.
For example I would watch the builders like TARR, WCI, BHS, BAM,
MTH, LEN, and SPF. If you research these companies you may find that significant insider purchases have been made within the last few weeks and on WCI Carl Icahn has been named chairman and is effectively in control of the company. WCI trading well below its 52 week high rejected a $22 per share buyout from Icahn early this year. Now the stock trades at around $7. You want to bet that Icahn still believes this to be a $22 stock? I will follow these companies carefully to see if all that insider buying will translate into hirer prices per share.
LT
LUM, TARR, CFC, all big winners today, keep a sharp eye, imo.
LT
Anyone watching LUM this morning? Demand appears to be returning...we'll see what the next few days bring! Good to see it back in the 1.70 - 1.75 range after churning under 1.60 this morning.
Cheers!
CFC running, don't blame me if you did not get a piece of this,
has been on this board for a while, hope everyone made money on this one,
LT
Thanks LT...
My sentiment exactly. Let it churn for now. The market will see the value soon enough...imo!
Also, thank you for this board...great source of information!
beerdup
CFC gapper this morning, hope everyone is watching this one.
LT
beerdup, I take that as a good sign that their progress is going forward, I am watching that one very carefully, these lawsuits will amount to nothing, imo, this stock should rock big time.
LT
luvtradin1...
...What do you make of the two law firm PRs on Luminent today? Timing is very suspicious imo?? Just after major news?? These releases were supposedly in alleged "plaintiff" shareholder's interest; however, the timing did nothing to protect the interest of shareholders. Your thoughts?
Oh...I do have a modest position in LUM...
here is an excellent website to help anyone interested in
following the progress or lack thereof of troubled mortgage companies, link:
http://ml-implode.com/#lists
LT
Accredited Home Soars on New Takeover Bid
http://www.bnet.com/2407-13071_23-162364.html
hope some of you got a piece of this Friday,
LT
keep a sharp eye traders, opportunities in volatile markets will always be there, the question is will you be paying attention,
good read, worth your time, imo:
MARK HULBERT
Unfazed
Commentary: New indicator shows investors just as bullish as in May
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-sentiment-indicator-unveiled/story.aspx?guid=%7BFB34DF70%2....
LT
Vulture Funds Start Circling Credit Markets
opportunity knocking? link:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118851686774914046.html?mod=dist_smartbrief
LT
LUM (After Hours: 1.50 0.26 (20.97%) as of 09/07/07)
up almost 21% after hours on late afternoon Friday news on restructuring and reducing costs, link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/luminent_job_cuts.html?.v=1
LT
Cuntrywide announces 12,000 layoffs, share price up after hours,
CFC
LT
hope you all got a piece of TARR this morning, lol,
I fully expect that to run into the $5 range over the next week or so, imo.
LT
TMA, 12.21, NYSE, Thornburg raises $1.44B to relaunch loans
link: http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/04/news/companies/bc.apfn.thornburg.cash.ap/index.htm?section=money_mos...
LT
Bush to outline aid to mortgage holders
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070831/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_housing_slump
keep a sharp eye on CFC(20.90): trading up $1.30 premarket, I would alos look at some deep call options if you are into that,
keep an eye on HMBN(.034): huge gap up this morning
LUM(1.78) trading up .24 pre market to $1.78
and several others previousl mentioned on this board, good luck and make money.
LT
HMBN, don't forget that there is probably a huge short here.
Looking for a good squeeze play? This might be one to consider, imo.
LT
HMBN monster gap this morning, keep a sharp eye, last night's
news could move this one today.
LT
HMBN in the news, keep an eye on this tomorrow, imo,
court approves asset sales to Countrywide:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22438681
LT
LUM looks like it wants to make a move today. Pre market
trades, small gap and strong bid support, imo.
LT
keep an eye on IMH, could have good possibilities, and
the list of potential profit companies just continues to grow in this unprecedented environment,
my opinion of course, but many mortgage companies that have perfectly good assets got hammered from all of the emotional fallout the past few weeks,
smart traders are keeping a sharp eye on a growing list of stocks in this sector that have huge upside potential,
LT
Local Countrywide office unaffected by mortgage problems
link to article: http://www.mountvernonnews.com/local/07/08/23/countrywide.html
I would keep a sharp eye on CFC as we go forward. Did anyone get a nice piece of today's pop in the morning?
LT
Wyoming mortgage firm opens Scottsdale, Glendale branches
link to article: http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/08/20/daily43.html
I post this to prove that although some people are bailing out of the mortgage market others are jumping into it deeper than before, must be a good reason, lol
LT
ALFH.PK - here is another one just popped up today
Amstar mortgage company filed chapter 11, shares at .025 end of day, down substantially from recent highs, they turned their mortgage offices over to the Money Store, just to keep everyone working, however I would keep an eye on this one, here is why:
Amstar Financial is now seeking financing for two other subsidiaries in development -- insurance venture Amstar Guaranty Agency and Homes Opportunities, a company that buys foreclosed homes at a steep discount.
Looks to me like they filled the market with subprime loans and now will take advantage by buying up foreclosed real estate, what a country!!
Might make a few bucks off this one a bit down the road, keep on radar.
Link to article: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5076817.html
LT
TARR filed an onerous 8K after hours, link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070823/tarr8-k.html
dropped 50 cents after hours on this news, so
I am going to watch and see if it drops more on this news in the morning, then will wait for a bottom and watch to see how they solve this problem, my guess lots of hands will be reaching out to help them resolve these issues, if my guess is right it should bounce again after any drop, time will tell.
LT
definitely keep an eye on LEND, get into the dd necessary to
understand the dynamics there and be ready to pull the trigger the moment it becomes clear that their buyout deal is going through, imo.
LT
keep your eyes on HMBN, that is tied into Countrywide in a
peripheral way, but can be positively affected by CFC as well.
LT
CFC out of the gate and running hard pm, I hope some traders
got this at 19-20, it is only going to go up from here, imo.
people who played the calls are doing ok right now as well.
LT
yep nice day today, came in late at 1.05 but still got momo for me i think!
LUM making a nice comeback this afternoon, bears watching.
LT
HMBN trading pm and gapping up, L2 shows strong upward trend.
LT
CFC continues, trading hard pm and up from the close. eom.
LT
DAVID WEIDNER'S WRITING ON THE WALL
Buy, buy and then cry
Commentary: Backlash amid the turmoil shows investors still don't get it
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
One of the great burdens of financial journalism is that family members near and far ask you for advice about the market.
In my family, there is one person who takes every gathering as an opportunity to pan in this gently flowing stream. The conversation almost always ends the same way: "I'm too scared to be in the market."
At first, this response frustrated me. But these days it's not hard to admire the self awareness. Risk, even in small doses, is not for everyone.
So isn't it funny when people who should know better end up whining to the courts that they lost a bundle in the market. No one seems to get upset when they make an unexpected windfall.
Sentinel Management Group Inc. is the target of multiple actions. It's being charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and faces civil suits from investors for selling assets at below-market value. The SEC alleges Sentinel didn't tell investors their assets were "highly leveraged," according to the complaint, and investors have sued to block any more trades or deals.
Sentinel is into cash management or money market funds like Lance Armstrong is into bike riding or Steven Schwarzman is into a seafood diet. Suing Sentinel for leverage is like a toaster buyer saying their Proctor Silex dried out their bread.
Sentinel's quagmire is the latest legal territory staked out by Amaranth Advisors, Sowood Capital and Bear Stearns Cos.' (BSC) hedge funds - to name just a few firms that are facing, or have been threatened with, a lawsuit.
Mad money
Hedge-fund managers like to defend the secrecy of the business by saying it's only institutions, high-net-worth individuals and other sophisticated investors who can invest in the funds. How sophisticated do you need to be to understand that hedge funds take risky bets that can blow up?
Another target: mortgage companies. Luminent Mortgage Capital Inc. (LUM) has one foot in the grave, and already investors have piled on with a lawsuit alleging management and directors misrepresented some facts. The plaintiffs cited a lack of financial controls and a lack of discipline and hedging practices when investing.
Talk about mad money. Luminent may also be responsible for the mortgage crisis, the war in Iraq and fruit flies, but investors who gained as much 20% on their investment in 2006 didn't go class action over that.
Government intervention
In Washington, the Bush administration is backing accountants, bankers and lawyers in a U.S. Supreme Court case that may decide if investors can sue third parties when the investments in a company go bad. The decision may go a long way toward deciding if Enron Corp. retirees will be able to win something from Enron's banks or if they've come to the end of the line. See full story.
The industry and parts of the government are aligned against the plaintiffs. It's part of a backlash against the backlash of investors.
Wall Street deserves much of the blame when it comes to fostering ill will among investors. A recent poll found that 58% of 2,500 traders who responded said that they would trade on insider information if they could make a $10 million profit and have no chance of getting caught, according to Trader Monthly.
Bankers who may see not only year-end bonuses but as much as a 20% increase to those bonuses are also fueling the ire of investors who are dreading the next statement from their 401(k) providers.
Crooked traders and big paydays don't inspire trust and confidence. But it's doubtful that legislation or more education is going to be the fix. For years, Wall Street's biggest trade group has spent $5 million annually on investor education.. No amount of schooling makes a bad investment bet go good.
And it's dangerous to put limitations on who can sue and when. Though it's difficult to know how many investor cases are justified in the courts, about 20% of the 5,671 investor complaints filed at the NASD last year resulted in disciplinary action. Though those cases are usually investor against broker, it does suggest that some investors are right when they believe they've been wronged.
As for a journalist's stock-picking prowess? Scarier than the market.
Big coincidence
Apologies to everyone who has written about the brief hiatus of "Big Coincidence," this column's effort to point out suspicious stock trading in advance of big announcements from companies. The recent market volatility has made it difficult to see unusual activity.
But that changed Thursday when Cincinnati's Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) announced a $1 billion deal for First Charter Corp. (FCTR) , a Charlotte, N.C.-based bank. The deal represented a 53% premium to First Charter's recent stock price and was unusually pricey. Fifth Third will take a 2% per-share earnings hit next year and expects annual cost savings of only $22 million.
As The Wall Street Journal blog Deal Journal pointed out Thursday, First Charter stock was on a big run before the deal was announced. Shares rose 13% after Aug. 3 after falling nearly 30% early in the year. See Deal Journal blog entry.
Maybe First Charter trading will be taken up by a the task force against insider trading formed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the Options Regulatory Surveillance Authority, NYSE Regulation Inc. and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The market surveillance arms of those regulators have started meeting to compare notes. Former SEC enforcement chief Stephen Cutler touted the technology at the regulators' disposal, telling Reuters, "There is no such thing as a trade falling under the radar."
In First Charter's case, the trades must have fallen on top of it.
David Weidner covers Wall Street for MarketWatch.
U.S. Stock Futures Gain on Merger Speculation; Countrywide Rises
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22232674
this one is clearly on our radar, if the Buffet news pans out this stock could go way higher, imo.
LT
Accredited Home Lenders to trade out about $1 bln in loans
By Christopher Hinton,
link to article: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bA002A96D-F729-4841-8A30-E0CEE045383F%7d&...
trading up pre-market, this one is good to keep an eye on, imo.
LT
Reuters: Buffett could buy parts of Countrywide: report
Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:42PM EDT
Warren Buffett told TV network CNBC last week that the worsening credit and housing markets may present some "real" investment opportunities.
link to post on Lotto board, great read, imo:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22228898
I guess we are seeing more and more players grabbing cheap assets in this unfolding adventure, lol
Buffet buying parts of Countrywide Financial? Who would have ever guessed.
I suppose Countrywide stock might be fun to watch tomorrow.
LT
CFC found support today arount 19.50, any good news that
comes out of there and this kicks up hard, imo.
some players may want to look at the calls,
LT
excellent read on financial stocks right now:
Morningstar.com
Fire Sale on Financial Stocks
Thursday August 16, 5:51 pm ET
By Rachel Barnard, Ph.D.
link: http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/070816/204013.html?.v=1
worth your time, imo.
LT
more about the LUM white knight buyer, I guess KKR is not the only one to recognize the huge opportunities presented by the mortgage market chaos, good read on the buyer:
Arco is a Gramercy Advisors shell is beneficially owned in part by the principals of Gramercy Advisors LLC and its affiliates, a leading U.S. based asset manager in emerging market investments with US$3.8 billion face value of assets and nearly US$2 billion in equity capital under management as of March 31, 2007
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=196353
As a result of their first-hand experience realizing value from distressed emerging market investments through debt restructurings at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers, the managing partners were confident they could generate superior absolute returns.
http://www.gramercy.com/AboutUs/AboutTheFirm.asp
LT
yeah alot of chatter on Yahoo MSG boards, seems people still dont know where this is going.
Looks like UP to me!
Would love to see shorts get squeezed hard.
I figure, if book value was $10 a share, and with all the BS she collapsed to half that ($5), now Arco owns half the co...
I'm putting a fair vaue at around $2.50 per share.
Just my opinion, who knows for sure.
thanks Boomer great find, LUM gapping up hard on news
LT
Thornburg Mortgage Stabilizes Its Financing Platform and Plans to Return to Business as Usual
Monday August 20, 8:24 am ET
-- Rapid Sale of $20.5 Billion of Assets Underscores Company's Highly Liquid Portfolio
-- Substantial Reduction in Repurchase Borrowings Greatly Reduces Exposure to Margin Calls
-- Credit Quality Remains Among the Industry's Best
-- 2Q Common Dividend of $0.68 on Schedule for September 17 Distribution
link to story: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070820/20070820005503.html?.v=1
LT
TMA - Thornburg Mortgage GAP UP and trading hard pm
LT
UPDATE 1-Luminent Mortgage announces bailout
Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:19AM EDT
NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Luminent Mortgage Capital Inc (LUM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which has struggled with liquidity problems because of investments in mortgages, on Monday announced a bailout designed to help insure its survival.
Under a letter of intent, Arco Capital Corp., a San Juan-based holding company engaged in lending and acquisition activities, would be issued five-year warrants to buy up to a 49 percent equity stake and 51 percent economic interest in Luminent at 18 cents per share, Luminent said.
In addition, Luminent said it would get up to $60 million of new capital, and that Arco may buy some of the company's assets. Four new directors will join Luminent's board.
Luminent, a San Francisco-based real estate investment trust, this month suspended its quarterly dividend as it struggled with liquidity problems, which resulted in some default notices. The REIT has said the secondary market for mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities "seized up."
Luminent said it decided not to get stockholder approval for the warrants, saying any delay may "seriously further jeopardize" its financial viability.
"Even with the possibility of sizable dilution to existing Luminent stockholders, the transactions ... create the best path both to attempt to protect current value and grow potential value," Luminent Chief Executive Trez Moore said in a statement. He said the transactions provide "short-term liquidity relief."
Luminent said it plans in the future to be a manager for asset-backed securities. It said the transactions require completion of definitive agreements and other conditions, and that there is no assurance they will address Luminent's liquidity shortfall.
Luminent shares traded Friday at about 70 cents in electronic trading. They traded as high as $10.84 last Oct. 9.
SFNN one to keep an eye on, Shearson Financial Network, Inc.
this one is a sub with some real potential, imo
very experienced CEO running the shop, mortgage company that is reporting profits, check their Ihub board for more info.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=SFNN
LT
Followers
|
4
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
72
|
Created
|
08/17/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator luvtradin1 | |||
Assistants |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |