SPX MACD signals

Best Six Months Strategy

Gerald Appel recommends an 8-17-9 MACD to generate buy signals and a 12-25-9 MACD to confirm a sell signal for a stock, which has had a strong bullish move.

A month hence, and sticking with that method so far looks pretty boneheaded.

May Almanac (Apr 17 2009, 09:28 AM)

Once the first half of the “May-June” disaster area May is much improved the last couple of decades and ranks number one for NASDAQ in post-election years since 1973. The Dow has been up 9 of the last 11 first trading days and there is clear mid-month strength during expiration week. Though the 22nd is a bullish trading day, the Friday before Memorial Day tends to be weak and thinly traded as folks kickoff the summer season and the shortened week after has been strong over the years. Though we are concerned about a test of the lows during the Worst Six Months, seasonal factors may take a back seat to the Obama administration’s efforts to right the economy and banking system, including the effects of the stimulus package.

Almanac Investor Alert

DOW MACD Sell Triggers 4/21/2009
2008-2009 Best Six Months+MACD Timing Changes

MACD Today's Buy Date Close Close
DOW 10/20/2008 9265.43 7969.56 -1295.87 -13.99%
S&P500 10/20/2008 985.40 850.08 -135.32 -13.73%
NASDAQ 10/17/2008 1711.29 1643.85 -67.44 -3.94%

Despite a decent rebound today the Dow Best Six Months MACD SELL Signal triggered on today’s close. However, the S&P 500 Best Six Months MACD Sell signal has not triggered. A modest rally of 7.72 S&P points tomorrow will continue to keep the S&P’s MACD Sell Signal from triggering. It will take a more substantial rally in the Dow of 190.80 points tomorrow for the Dow’s MACD Sell Signal to turn positive.

Though this is the “Official” MACD Seasonal SELL Signal for the Dow, prudence is the best course of action. We’ll sit tight for the next day or so and if something dramatically changes tomorrow we’ll issue another alert. Otherwise we’ll update you again in the regular Thursday Weekly Email Alert. At this time, begin planning and consider using any strength to sell Dow or S&P 500 positions in your seasonal switching portfolio and lightening up on other long positions on rallies.

Our Almanac Investor Portfolios on page 11 of the newsletter and the last page of the ETF Lab have been out of these seasonal switching positions since late February. We remain mostly in defensive issues and those poised to benefit from government stimulus, infrastructure building and alternative energy.

We expect a selloff from the recent rally that drove the Dow up 24.2%, the S&P 500 up 28.5% and NASDAQ up 31.9% in just six short weeks. A test of the March lows is likely. Last year we were rightfully concerned after the first negative Dow Best Six Months with MACD timing since 1983. This year’s even worse performance makes this the first back-to-back loss since 1950. We do not deem this a positive sign.

Although this year’s Dow Best Six Months with MACD timing was abysmal, this is only the 9th loss in its 59-year record ­ and the second since 1983. We would be hard pressed to find another long-term, simple investment strategy that can best these results.

The NASDAQ remains in its “Best Eight Months” which runs through June and we will begin looking for a MACD Sell for the NASDAQ at the beginning of June.

STANDARD TRADING GUIDELINES!
BUY LIMITS ARE GOOD TILL CANCELLED.
ALL STOPS EFFECTIVE ONLY WHEN THE STOCK CLOSES BELOW THE STOP PRICE.
ALWAYS SELL HALF ON A DOUBLE.


Please Trade Carefully.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Editor
J. Taylor Brown, Director of Research


Stock Trader's Almanac® Almanac Investor
Copyright © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.
111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030 Tel: 800-762-2974

Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. The information presented in this Almanac Investor has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of the editor, its employees, or affiliated companies may, in some instances, include securities mentioned in this Almanac Investor Alert. Additional disclosures can be found at www.stocktradersalmanac.com.

Sell in May time?

What Ever Happened to the Winter Rally?
By MICHAEL KAHN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The economic crisis has trumped traditional strength in the cold months for the second year running.

ONE TOOL IN THE TOOLBOX of the chart reader is cycle analysis and one of the more familiar is the seasonal cycle. The old saw "sell in May and go away" is a direct reference to the typically weak summer months.

Right now, we are supposedly in the sweet spot of the cycle where the bulk of stock-market gains have been made over time. But unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks, we are facing the second year in a row where the seasonal cycle has failed.

To get a flavor for how this cycle has misbehaved in recent years, we need only go back to 2007.

The Standard & Poor's 500 closed on April 30, 2007, at 1482. By Oct. 30, the S&P stood at 1531 for a net gain of 3.3%. While positive, it was not exactly a barn burner. But that is what we'd normally expect in the summertime.

On closer examination, we will see that the first news of the subprime crisis in August sent the index down to an intraday low of 1371 -- a temporary loss of 7.5% from the April close.

That sort of volatility and lack of primary trend is the type of behavior we should expect in the summertime. Sometimes these months are dead quiet, and sometimes they are a roller coaster. But the net result -- again, averaged over the decades -- is very little return for investors.

When October ended, the market had peaked. According to the seasonal cycle, that was exactly the opposite of what should have occurred. And all investors know what happened after that. Selling in May was an awesome strategy last year.

When the market made a tradable bottom in November, it looked as if the stronger winter months had returned. There was no illusion that a bull market was back, but the chance to make some money in stocks, at least in the short term, seemed real.

The party lasted six weeks until the worst January on record squashed thoughts of wintertime strength. The financial crisis overwhelmed seasonal factors.

I asked several colleagues what they thought about the seasonal cycle including the possibility that the cycle had inverted, or flipped over temporarily. While not common, it does occur when previously benign forces suddenly become very prominent.

Phil Erlanger, president of Phil Erlanger Research, disagreed. "The very definition of seasonality," he said, "is a cycle that measures fundamental factors that influence the price action of stocks at fixed intervals of time. If current price action deviates from its seasonal cycle, it is more likely that exogenous factors are overwhelming the standard seasonal factors."

Many hope that a bad winter will be followed by a better summer to somehow make up for it. Perhaps the thinking is some reversion to the mean in terms of long-term performance. But Erlanger debunked that idea, saying, "If a market behaves poorly during a strong seasonal period, the next weak seasonal period could have 'extra' weakness."

That is not good news.

To be sure, seasonal cycles are just tendencies for certain market behaviors and clearly there are no guarantees. And making seasonal analysis even less reliable is the nature of the current crisis.

Carl Swenlin of DecisionPoint.com argues that traditional technical indicators are really not worth much when the market is in such a state.

Could that be the silver lining? Expectations of continued weakness into the summer might be wrong? I'd say that is wishful thinking.

It is the use of technical indicators and traditional chart patterns that is under fire during such times. Price breakouts from chart patterns fail. Leadership in the market changes weekly. Traditional relationships, such as that between stocks and bonds, disappear.

While I remain optimistic than most that the market is in a trading range rather than at the precipice of a new leg lower, the latest failure of technical tools does curb my enthusiasm. Rather than see tradable rallies and declines within that trading range, it may be more realistic to expect the market to stay right where it is, give or take a few percent, as volatility fades and investors just give up.

And just when nobody is looking, stocks will start to recover.

Seasonality for 23-27 Feb 09:

Up--26th

Down--24th

JANUARY FORECASTS A DOWN YEAR

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090206_jan.html

* Unfavorable trading day this week: 6 Feb...

* 11 Feb is the next favorable trading day.

What's an unfavorable trading day or favorable trading day?
U = Probability >= 60% S&P 500 falling for the same 21-year period.
F = Probability >= 60% S&P 500 rising for the same 21-year period.

POed after the fact too...

Bespoke's Paul Hickey appeared on Bloomberg TV to discuss the January effect and other seasonal patterns.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1jXsqLkCPNw.asf

Don't write off 2009 just yet ...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={D7D7FDE7-2EB4-4173-8523-9B70D094FEA0}&siteid=nbkh

Folks using this tactic would be POed so far...

Coming into a bullish seasonality...

Buy close of business on 28 Jan and sell close of businee on 2 Feb.

Will January Be the Cruelest Month?
Market's Performance (Down About 8%) May Hint at Rest of Year (Gulp!)


By ANNELENA LOBB

What the market does in January often foretells how U.S. stocks will perform during the rest of the year. It is looking rough so far.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are down just shy of 8% in January. Last Tuesday's nose dive of 4%, the worst Inauguration Day showing ever, left the Dow below 8000 for the first time since its November bear-market lows. Bad news about banks has pulled other sectors down, and fourth-quarter earnings have mostly been duds.

No wonder "people are hesitant to get into this market," said Thomas Nyheim, vice president at Christiana Bank & Trust Co. in Wilmington, Del., with $4.4 billion under management. "We've seen mostly negative signals."

It will take a huge rally this week for major indexes to break even, let alone gain ground, for the full month. For now, the S&P 500 is on track to dethrone its worst January on record when it fell 7.7% in 1970.

Historically, January often augurs how the rest of the year will go, although this is hardly a perfect portent. Over the past 10 years, January correctly predicted the future seven times.

When the S&P falls in January, the index loses an average of 2.4% in the next 11 months, according to data going back to 1950 from Ned Davis Research, a Venice, Fla., research firm and investment adviser. When the S&P rises, the index posts an average gain of 12.3% throughout the rest of the year.

The Dow's pattern is similar when it comes to gains. A positive January led to an average increase of 9.8% over the rest of the year, according to Ned Davis Research. A negative January led to gains that averaged just 1.6%.

January usually gets a boost from money flowing into retirement accounts as the new year begins. Investors tweak their asset allocations, and if the market has been strong recently, they might put more money into stocks, said Mr. Nyheim.

This month, though, many clients have called to ask Mr. Nyheim about moving more money into bonds, because they are uncomfortable with stocks after the market plunges of late 2008.

Year-end bonuses can translate into a flurry of stock investments in January, said Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research. But "who got a bonus last year?" he said. In addition, January tends to be a weak month for initial public offerings even when the market is doing well, so there is little supply of new shares to tempt investors.

It doesn't help that mutual-fund redemptions are taking wind out of the stock market. As of last Thursday, $10.76 billion had flowed out of stock funds this month, according to an estimate from TrimTabs Investment Research. Unless the tide suddenly reverses, January will be the eighth consecutive month of outflows from stock funds.

In the first half of the month, as investors anticipated the inauguration of President Barack Obama, there was "a window of uncertainty and inaction," said Richard Campagna, chief investment officer at 300 North Capital LLC in Pasadena, Calif. "It created a void and sent the S&P 500 lower, driven by the financials."

So far, the Obama administration hasn't calmed the market, especially financial stocks. "Everyone, including me, thought there would be an Obama honeymoon market run, and we never saw that," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co., of Wyomissing, Pa., with $2 billion under management.

Last week, financial stocks were overwhelmed by news that the U.K. government would have to expand its financial-rescue plan. A pile of unrealized losses at asset manager State Street Corp. was yet another blow to investor confidence. On Inauguration Day, the financial sector of the S&P 500 lost 16% of its value.

Financials now make up 10.3% of the S&P 500, down from 18.6% at the end of January 2008. About a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported fourth-quarter earnings so far. Most have been financials, and they have largely looked even worse than the low expectations investors had heading into earnings season.

Even shares of financial institutions that outperformed their peers last year are heading south. Mr. Morris holds Wells Fargo, which has been walloped by fears it will need more capital to absorb Wachovia, which was acquired by the San Francisco bank last month. Wells Fargo is down 46% in January, compared with a 2.4% decline for all of 2008.

Amid recession, Mr. Nyheim, the vice president at Christiana, a unit of National Penn Bancshares, said he has been buying short-term, high-quality bonds and is investing in companies such as Walt Disney and Abbott Laboratories for clients who can wait longer for returns. "We have a lot of older clients, with a shorter time horizon," he said. "I have heard a couple say they don't even buy green bananas."

Battered investors may want to pray for a reprise of 2003. After falling in January, the Dow and S&P 500 soared about 30% over the next 11 months. That turnaround also followed the bear-market lows of 2002. "I could see a down January, but an up year" in 2009, Mr. Campagna said

Kaeppel's Corner: The Late January Alert

http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/20738

The indicator is very accurate in predicting that a downtrend will occur sometime during the year, but that doesn't mean an uptrend won't also occur....

...The December Low Indicator can help you draw a line in the sand, so you can minimize losses if you're wrong and maximum gains if you're right.

Using this method for making bearish-only trades in the past 28 occurrences would have given you enough opportunity to outperform the market during those years, even if you made only one trade per year based on this indicator.

Thanks for the data G. 93% is a good batting average in my book.

Data from the Stock Trader's Almanac Web site show that of the 30 times this indicator has appeared since 1952, a downward move has followed 28 times, even if the price fluctuated at the indicator's level.

December Low Indicator Flashes Warning

http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/22/december-low-indicator-pf-ii-in_gs_0123chartroom_inl.html?partner=alerts

OK

It's a combination from John Murphy and me.

stock trader's almanac

what's sta?

...A more important test is the market's direction for the whole month of January....

your thinking, or is that from the STA?

All the major market indexes lost ground this week. As a result, the market failed its first test of the year which holds that market direction during the year's first week often determines the direction for the rest of the year. A more important test is the market's direction for the whole month of January. The lack of upside volume earlier in the week was an early warning that last Friday's upside breakout was suspect. I reduced risk today by clearing the deck relative to my SPY, VXF, AGG, and EFA investments. Only longs now are MCD, PHO, and SRS.

He wrote about "The January Effect" -- Santa didn't make his hit parade.

Year-end bounce for small caps?
Commentary: January Effect particularly risky bet this year

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:24 a.m. EST Dec. 22, 2008

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Ordinarily, I would feel comfortable urging you to consider a strategy over the next couple of weeks that attempts to exploit the so-called January Effect.

But, as is abundantly clear, we are not in ordinary times.
So let me review the historical evidence, and you be the judge.

The January Effect, of course, is the seasonal tendency for stocks of small companies to outperform the large-caps around the turn of the year. Its existence has been widely known for over two decades. And in back testing, researchers have found that it existed in many prior decades too.

In fact, it is one of the strongest historical patterns that researchers have ever documented in the stock market.
Furthermore, despite predictions that widespread awareness of its existence would cause it to disappear, the January Effect -- with some notable exceptions -- has remained remarkably robust. In fact, some of its most profitable years have come this decade.

Why, then, am I so cautious?

Because the January Effect appears to owe its existence in large part to investment managers' increased appetite to invest in riskier stocks once the New Year begins. That appetite will be dampened if the bear market takes another leg down over the next couple of weeks, causing those managers to avoid the riskier small-caps.

There's a fascinating story in why managers should be more willing to incur risk in January than in December. According to researchers, it has to do with the benchmark that managers must outperform in order to earn their year-end bonuses. By far the most commonly used one is the S&P 500 index (SPX), and though the choice of that benchmark would appear to be completely innocuous, it actually has profound consequences for how managers behave.

Consider first a manager who is ahead of the S&P 500 for year-to-date performance as the end of the year approaches. This manager knows that if he can hold on to his lead above the S&P 500 until Dec. 31, he probably will earn a decent bonus. He thus will have an incentive to make his portfolio look more and more like the S&P 500, since that locks in his lead. That means he will tend to shift money out of secondary stocks that are not part of the S&P 500 and into the large caps that dominate that index.

Money managers who are only moderately behind the S&P 500 as the end of year approaches also will have an incentive to reorient their portfolios to be more like the S&P 500. That is because their desire to take on more risks in order to possibly rise above the S&P 500 by year's end will be outweighed by the fear of losing their bets and lagging the S&P 500 by an even large margin -- in which case even their jobs might be in danger.

One implication of this reduced appetite for risk as the year progresses is that the beginning of the year will be a lot different than the end of the year. That's because, once Jan. 1 rolls around, managers' compensation slates will be wiped clean. Their willingness to take risk, which often manifests as an eagerness to bet on secondary stocks, will be at the highest point it will be all year. That in turn means that managers in January will likely be net sellers of the large caps they increasingly purchase in November and December.

I admit that this may sound like an awfully fanciful theory. But researchers have found extensive evidence that the theory is a good description of how managers behave. ( Read academic study on the subject.)

But what happens if investors panic around the turn of the year and there is a market-wide flight to quality?

It turns out that we got a textbook illustration of this one year ago, and its influence on January Effect strategies was not pretty. While both large caps and small caps declined, small caps suffered the most. As a result, January Effect strategies turned a sizeable loss last year.

And it's a good bet that the same thing would happen again this year if panic conditions exist over the next several weeks.

So there you have it: Betting on the January Effect this year requires a belief that there will be at least somewhat of a return to normalcy in managers' willingness to take on risk.

If you are willing to make that bet, exchange traded funds probably provide the easiest investment vehicles with which to do so. You would purchase an ETF that invests in small-cap indexes, such as the iShares Russell 2000 fund (IWM), while simultaneously shorting an equal dollar amount in an ETF that invests in the S&P 500, such as the iShares S&P 500 fund (IVV).

Not all January Effect strategies use the same entry and exit dates. But one early study used Dec. 20 as the entry (or the close of the first trading session after Dec. 20 if the market was closed on that day), and Jan. 9 as the exit. For tracking purposes, therefore, I'll assume that this hedge is entered into at the close of Monday, Dec. 22, and exited at the close of Jan. 9.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/january-effect-worth-betting-year/story.aspx?guid=%7bDC190815-84C4-4704-A6FA-7CBBE2B4A563%7d&dist=msr_9&print=true&dist=printMidSection

Not that I recall Generic but my memory isn't the best...

Those stories appear every year. All people who trade stocks respect history and discuss it, especially in times when the markets are at extremes.

There are loads of these idioms on the STA and people love to discuss them.

Did Hulbert post a SC Rally comment this year?

Flawed early warning signal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-first-five-days-January/story.aspx?guid={7B453013-7EB5-4F27-8BF7-254D3FAE74E1}

If you know any other Almanac enthusiasts, the MDC (membership Drive Competition) ends January 15th... Invite your friends!

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/mdcexpl.aspx

Yup, I got it through stockcharts.com about 2 months ago.

It's on sale for 2009. I didn't buy one in 2008.

It is a handy thing

Oh, I love this book, I use it as a journal for my trades. I only wish it had more space.

The "First Five Days" of January barometer is next.

Up first 5 trading days historically means a positive close for the year.

January's First Five Days: An Early Warning System

The last 36 up First Five Days were followed by full year gains 31 times for an 86.1% accuracy ratio and a 13.7% average gain in all 36 years. The five exceptions include flat 1994 and four related to war. Vietnam military spending delayed start of 1966 bear market. Ceasefire imminence early in 1973 raised stocks temporarily. Saddam Hussein turned 1990 into a bear. The war on terrorism, instability in the Mideast and corporate malfeasance shaped 2002 into one of the worst years on record. The 22 down First Five Days were followed by 11 up years and 11 down.

"Santa Claus Rally 2008-2009" is in the books:

December 24 2008 - January 5, 2009



,
,

...Over the years we have documented the bullish tendency for the market to rally over this short yearend/New Year period. When it fails to materialize it is usually a sign of trouble ahead for the market. This inspired Yale Hirsch to coin the phrase that if "Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall..."

...In 2007-2008 SCR was down -2.5% and we had the fifth worst Bear Market on record...

I noticed that Hirsch has a blog now.

http://stocktradersblog.blogspot.com/

So, the Santa Claus Rally is not a bearish omen -- in fact, it's a bullish precursor in "normal" years.

May we have a normal year!

Santa Claus Is Back In Town

December 31, 2008

Ho Ho Ho! It looks like Santa Claus is back in town – New York City that is and he is cruising down Wall Street. So far the first four days of our seven-day Santa Claus Rally (SCR) the S&P 500 has racked up a 3.2% gain and at midday New Year's Eve the S&P is up another 1%.

Over the years we have documented the bullish tendency for the market to rally over this short yearend/New Year period. When it fails to materialize it is usually a sign of trouble ahead for the market. This inspired Yale Hirsch to coin the phrase that if "Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall."

That was exactly the case the last three times Santa delivered coal to Wall Street. In 1999-2000 the SCR was down -4.0% and then the Tech Bubble popped. The 2000-2001 Bear Market drove the DJIA down -29.7%, S&P -36.8%, NASDAQ -71.8%. In 2004-2005 the SCR was down -1.8% and 2005 was the first down “fifth” year since 1875. 2005 was a flat weak year with the narrowest Dow range on record. In 2007-2008 SCR was down -2.5% and we had the fifth worst Bear Market on record.

There are still two and a half days left on the SCR, but the positive market action to date is encouraging. If the market can go up in these usually bullish times from November through January it shows underlying strength and support. If it cannot that would be a sign of weakness. A continuation of the resumption of these seasonal bullish trends as we have already seen around Thanksgiving and now at the end of December supports our bullish forecast for 2009 in our January 2009 issue.

Posted by Stock Trader's Almanac Blog at 8:41 AM 0 comments

http://stocktradersblog.blogspot.com/

Almanac Investor Alert
FREE Lunch 2008 Is Served 12/21/2008

This “Free Lunch” strategy is only a short-term strategy reserved for the nimblest traders. It has performed better after market corrections and when there are more new lows to choose from. We just experienced the fifth worst bear market since 1900 and we suspect that we have already begun a new bull market. There are a many viable and interesting candidates this year.

However, small caps tend to underperform at the beginning of new bull markets as smaller investors and speculative hedge funds that mostly trade them are still reeling from the damage of the recently ended bear market. This has us concerned that the January Effect for small caps to outperform big caps starting in mid-December may be more muted this year if it materializes at all. This could impact our annual Free Lunch Menu of bargain stocks as many of these beaten-down issues are of the smaller variety.

Investors tend to get rid of their losers near year-end for tax purposes, often hammering these stocks down to bargain levels. Over the years the Almanac has shown that NYSE stocks selling at their lows on December 15 will usually outperform the market by February 15 in the following year.

We have come to the conclusion that the most opportune time to compile our list is on the Friday before Christmas. This allows us to capitalize on the Santa Claus Rally and it also comes immediately after quadruple witching which further depresses already distressed equities. It also gives us the weekend to evaluate the issues in greater depth and weed out any glaringly problematic stocks.

Our basic parameters are that the stock set a 52-week low on Friday December 19. Preferred stocks, funds, splits, special high dividends and new issues are eliminated. In addition, we eliminated any stocks that looked questionable or thinly traded and all those not down more than 45% from their 52-week high or down more than 95%.

If you buy these stocks, sell them as soon as you have a significant gain. The stocks all behave differently and there is no automatic trigger point to sell at. Standard trading rules do not apply for these trades. You should be out of all of these stocks between the middle of January and the middle of February. Advice a la G.M Loeb, never forget why you bought a stock. Also, be careful not to chase these stocks if they have already run away.

DISCLOSURE NOTE: Officers of the Hirsch Organization do not currently own any of the shares mentioned. However, we may participate in the Free Lunch Strategy.

As a reminder, this will be our last email Alert for 2008. The next Alert will be the Santa Claus Rally Alert on January 5, 2009. But do check the blog for any interim comments and observations.

Happy New Year & we wish you all health & prosperity in 2009!

2008 FREE Lunch Menu of Bargain Stocks
88 Friday-Before-Christmas New Lows

[52-Week 52-Week % Down 12/19/2008 Low High From High Close]

NYSE

AAV Advantage Energy 3.88 13.53 - 71.3% 4.03
AIB Allied Irish Banks Plc 4.55 47.72 - 90.5% 4.59
BXC Bluelinx Holdings 1.09 7.54 - 85.5% 1.19
CAP CAI International 2.90 20.44 - 85.8% 2.90
CT Capital Trust 3.12 38.84 - 92.0% 3.95
CSV Carriage Services 1.66 9.50 - 82.5% 1.86
EPL Energy Partners 1.67 16.50 - 89.9% 1.74
FBN Furniture Brands Intl 1.66 15.46 - 89.3% 1.66
GGC Georgia Gulf 1.15 9.00 - 87.2% 1.15
IRE Gov & Co Bank of Ireland 3.97 63.72 - 93.8% 4.07
HNR Harvest Nat Res Inc 4.30 13.43 - 68.0% 4.50
HIT Hitachi 41.27 77.33 - 46.6% 41.43
ITP Intertape Polymer 0.67 3.59 - 81.3% 0.68
KED Kayne Anderson Energy 7.04 25.62 - 72.5% 7.40
MWE Markwest Energy 8.20 38.50 - 78.7% 8.83
SNN Smith & Nephew 31.25 69.20 - 54.8% 31.56
THC Tenet Healthcare 0.99 6.88 - 85.6% 1.07
TNC Tennant Co 17.53 47.83 - 63.3% 17.82
VQ Venoco Inc. 2.05 24.38 - 91.6% 2.46
VM Virgin Mobile 0.60 9.42 - 93.6% 0.60
WNS WNS Holdings 6.31 20.00 - 68.5% 6.31
XRM Xerium Technologies 0.66 8.41 - 92.2% 0.70

AMEX

AZC Augusta Resources 0.47 6.95 - 93.2% 0.51
CXM Cardium Therapeutics 0.40 3.19 - 87.5% 0.53
CEP Constellation Energy 2.50 33.46 - 92.5% 2.52
KRU Crusader Energy 1.07 7.57 - 85.9% 1.27
DNE Dune Energy 0.12 2.30 - 94.8% 0.12
ERS Empire Resources 1.22 5.80 - 79.0% 1.35
GSX Gasco Energy 0.28 4.55 - 93.8% 0.28
HKN HKN Inc. 3.03 13.60 - 77.7% 3.50
ILE Isolagen 0.20 2.76 - 92.8% 0.22
KOG Kodiak Oil Gas 0.34 5.50 - 93.8% 0.36
RAE Rae Systems 0.50 2.89 - 82.7% 0.53
XPL Solitario Exploration 1.38 6.10 - 77.4% 1.44

NASDAQ

CIDM Access Integrated Tech 0.39 4.50 - 91.3% 0.39
ADLR Adolor 1.27 6.09 - 79.1% 1.61
AFFM Affirmative Insurance 0.85 10.58 - 92.0% 0.90
AFFY Affymax Inc. 8.75 23.38 - 62.6% 9.25
ALOG Analogic Corporation 26.36 76.93 - 65.7% 27.77
AREX Approach Resources 5.82 30.00 - 80.6% 5.87
BLTI Biolase Technology 0.82 4.64 - 82.3% 0.98
BBEP Breitburn Energy 5.25 30.36 - 82.7% 5.30
CALL Callwave 0.53 3.15 - 83.2% 0.53
CWST Casella Waste System 2.19 14.49 - 84.9% 2.40
CNVR Convera 0.20 3.89 - 94.9% 0.26
CREL Corel Corporation 2.87 11.49 - 75.0% 2.95
COSI Cosi Inc 0.20 3.24 - 93.8% 0.22
DXYN Dixie Group 1.57 9.55 - 83.6% 1.64
HILL Dot Hill Systems 0.45 4.12 - 89.1% 0.46
EROC Eagle Rock Energy 5.05 19.33 - 73.9% 5.14
FTWR Fibertower 0.15 2.45 - 93.9% 0.16
FSGI First Security Group 4.75 9.70 - 51.0% 4.75
FLML Flamel Technologies 3.60 14.40 - 75.0% 3.68
GEOY Geoeye Inc. 14.75 37.37 - 60.5% 15.02
GOOD Gladstone Commercial 7.93 18.50 - 57.1% 8.13
HYGS Hydrogenics 0.38 2.45 - 84.5% 0.38
ISSC Innovative Solutions 3.31 12.61 - 73.8% 3.52
KPPC Kapstone Paper 2.91 8.53 - 65.9% 2.99
KSW KSW Inc 1.79 7.04 - 74.6% 2.67
LUNA Luna Innovations Inc 2.00 9.90 - 79.8% 2.00
MSCS Msc.Software Corp 5.75 14.03 - 59.0% 6.14
NLST Netlist 0.24 2.33 - 89.7% 0.25
NOVC Novacea 0.89 3.40 - 73.8% 1.06
PHHM Palm Harbor Homes 3.70 13.15 - 71.9% 4.61
PDFS PDF Solutions 1.37 9.94 - 86.2% 1.53
PDLI PDL Biopharma Inc. 5.67 17.98 - 68.5% 6.75
PARD Poniard Pharmaceuticals 1.66 6.39 - 74.0% 1.73
QCCO QC Holdings Inc. 4.03 12.00 - 66.4% 4.04
RLOG Rand Logistics Inc. 3.41 6.45 - 47.1% 3.41
ROSG Rosetta Genomics 1.31 6.25 - 79.0% 1.39
SPRO Smartpros Ltd 2.25 6.19 - 63.7% 2.39
SUAI Specialty Underwrite 2.36 6.14 - 61.6% 2.42
SIVB SVB Financial Group 24.56 69.90 - 64.9% 25.06
TTWO Take-Two Interactive 8.15 27.95 - 70.8% 8.43
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals 0.48 7.90 - 93.9% 0.53
VCGH VCG Holding 1.40 15.00 - 90.7% 1.42
VRAZ Veraz Networks 0.37 5.38 - 93.1% 0.38
ZIXI Zix 1.08 5.30 - 79.6% 1.11

OTCBB

ECTE Echo Therapeutics 0.23 2.15 - 89.3% 0.40
ENLU Enerlume Energy Mgmt 0.24 2.74 - 91.2% 0.26
EXOU Exousia Advanced Mat 0.25 1.01 - 75.2% 0.30
IBIN IBSG International 0.42 2.30 - 81.7% 0.42
LIVC Live Current Media I 0.35 3.48 - 89.9% 0.45
NFEI New Frontier Energy 0.35 1.38 - 74.6% 0.36
NIMU Non-Invasive Monitor 0.28 0.98 - 71.4% 0.34
OLEPF Oromin Explorations 0.31 4.10 - 92.3% 0.31
PPRG Patient Portal Tech 0.16 1.65 - 90.3% 0.29
TAMO Tamm Oil and Gas 0.80 3.14 - 74.5% 0.95


Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Editor
J. Taylor Brown, Director of Research

Stock Trader's Almanac® Almanac Investor Copyright © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.
111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030 Tel: 800-762-2974

Available only to Stock Trader's Almanac® Almanac Investor subscribers. http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com
Pursuant to the provisions of Rule 206 (4) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, readers should recognize that not all recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of any recommendations referred to in this Email issue. The information presented in this Almanac Investor has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of the editor, its employees, or affiliated companies may, in some instances, include securities mentioned in this Almanac Investor Alert. Additional disclosures can be found at www.stocktradersalmanac.com.

Almanac Investor Alert
Chairman Bernanke's Defining Moment
1/24/2008

Weekly Changes

DOW 12378.61 219.40 1.80%
S&P500 1352.07 18.82 1.41%
NASDAQ 2360.92 14.02 0.60%

We believe that the stock market’s near term future is steeped in investors’ faith in the Federal Reserve’s handling of the economy. This is obviously not an epiphany. Fed policy has been an aspect of the U.S. economy since it was chartered in 1913, with its power increasing ever since. The august FOMC, which did not convene until 1936, has grown and evolved in lock-step with the economy. Simpler times called for simpler policy. Today the U.S. has the most complicated economy in history, and the Federal Open Market Committee has become more than just a steward. We expound on this theme in the Proving Grounds in the current issue of the Almanac Investor. Welcome to the era of the proactive Fed!

The Chairman’s unprecedented emphasis on transparency is new. 24/7 business news channels, as well the main-stream media outlets have access to information that traditionally has been shrouded behind the curtain. Professor Bernanke loves open debate and free discourse around his table; his recent predecessors, namely Volker and Greenspan, ran a tight ship and limited access to their inner sanctum.

Federal Reserve Chairmen have traditionally communicated in parable, in the foreign tongue of “Fed Speak”. Bernanke, being the consummate academic, lectures to us as if we were enrolled in his macroeconomic class at Princeton. He wants us to understand and learn from his lectures. He realized quickly though that loose lips sink ships. Who can forget when news of a private conversation between he and Maria Bartiromo tanked the markets?

In fairness, we have commended Mr. Bernanke frequently in this space as well as the Almanac Investor. He has done a good job in a difficult environment. Many of the problems currently weighing on the market were, at least in part, inherited. Since taking the reins in February 2006, he has guided the economy through a credit crunch, the deflation of the housing bubble, inflation percolating to the top of his acceptable range, and soaring energy prices to name but a few of the troubles that, thus far, have not completely derailed the markets or the economy.

It is, however, perception and faith in the Fed that is most important. As the economy steamed along and the markets surged to all-time highs, few had anything bad to say. After all, according to the data, jobs were plentiful, inflation was in check and a recession seemed implausible. The primary mandates of fostering growth and containing inflation expectations were being met.

But now, people seem to be getting nervous not just on Wall Street, but Main Street as well. The interim 75 bp cut in the Fed funds rate on Tuesday garnered massive media attention. Headlines from Boston to Boise alerted casual observers on the economy to an “Emergency Rate Cut.” The crawl tracked Wall Street’s wild ride. Just this morning at the coffee shop, one of our buddies, (who knows nothing about the markets), commented that Bernanke is messing up. When asked what he meant by that; he shrugged his shoulders and went back to reading the NY Post (a local daily rag). It is one thing to discuss monetary policy at the Bull & Bear Pub after the trading day, but when Fed Policy becomes fodder for coffee klatch kvetching in Nyack, you know that Bernanke is skating on thin ice.

Another warning sign that the Fed may be losing control of the situation is the recent stimulus package proposed by Congress. Is dropping $300 checks from the federal helicopter really the answer to the slowing economy? It is indeed, a quick fix, as politicians love to give out money, but it didn’t really work the last time they tried it during the recession in 2001. We will be analyzing in detail the history of economic stimulus packages and their effects on the economy and the markets in next month’s Proving Grounds. Spoiler alert: one has never been attempted before we were in a recession. It begs the question of whether or not next week’s Q4 GDP may indeed be negative, and do the Fed and the Congress already know this.

Which brings us to Bernanke’s defining moment. Next week, on the 29th and 30th the FOMC will meet for two days of policy formulation. Coincidently, on the 30th, the same day that the FOMC will announce if there is another rate cut, the Advanced Q4 GDP will be released. This may be the single most important policy decision of his two year tenure. The Faberge economy is in the balance. If GDP is bad, and The Street is uninspired by the Fed, we could be in for more trouble. Conversely, this could be Ben Bernanke’s moment to shine. Regardless, the near-term direction of this wildly-vacillating market will be a heck of a lot clearer.

STANDARD TRADING GUIDELINES!
BUY LIMITS ARE GOOD TILL CANCELLED.
ALL STOPS EFFECTIVE ONLY WHEN THE STOCK CLOSES BELOW THE STOP PRICE.
ALWAYS SELL HALF ON A DOUBLE.

Please Trade Carefully.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Editor
J. Taylor Brown, Director of Research

Stock Trader's Almanac® Almanac Investor Copyright © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.
111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030 Tel: 800-762-2974
Available only to Stock Trader's Almanac® Almanac Investor subscribers. http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Almanac Investor Alert

Ease Me In 1/10/2008


Weekly Changes
DOW 12853.09 -203.63 -1.56%
S&P500 1420.33 -26.83 -1.85%
NASDAQ 2488.52 -114.16 -4.39%


Fed Chairman Bernanke reassured The Street today that the Federal Reserve would be aggressive and proactive in its actions to resuscitate the ailing U.S. economy. Bernanke’s calm demeanor and candid assessment of the threats to the economy made it clear that more rate cuts would be supplied as needed.

While Wall Street digested Mr. Bernanke’s comments the market vacillated above and below the flat line until the news broke that Bank of America was in talks to buy the failing mortgage concern Countrywide. This breathed life into the stock market, pushing prices higher for the day.

Though this renewed confidence may rally stocks in the short term, we remain concerned that before the economy rights itself and before the market is off to new highs, further downside action is likely and that the potential for a full-blown bear market and recession is elevated.

In the upcoming issue we will be detailing market behavior during Fed easing periods. Eleven of the last twelve easing periods have proved to be tumultuous times for the markets.

Last week Santa failed to make an appearance and earlier this week our First Five Days Early Warning System (FFD) registered a negative reading with the S&P 500 down 5.3% for the first five trading days of 2008. This FFD was the worst on record. However, the 22 down First Five Days since 1950 were followed by 12 up years and 10 down (less than 50% accurate).

In Election years, the FFD indicator has a record of 12 and 2. Both errors were when the First Five Days were down. However, when FFD is down during uncertain economic conditions and in overextended markets as we are in now, the market has been much weaker (2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac, page 14).

The full-month January Barometer has a 10 and 4 record in Election years. At the end of the month when we have the final official January Barometer reading, we should have an even better picture of what to expect from the market in 2008.

In addition to these early negative readings, the Dow closed below its December closing low (on Jan 2) and continues to trade below it. Since 1950, 27 of 29 occurrences saw continued declines with and average loss of 10.1%.

Also, the historically bullish months of November and December were both down. This has occurred eight times since 1901. Six times the market was in a continuing bear market nearing its end in the next year. In the other two occurrences bear markets bottomed before the end of that year (October 1966 and December 1974).

As long as Bernanke and Co. hold sway over the market, a bear market can be averted. The FOMC meeting kicks off on January 29 with a Fed decision the following day. If Mr. Bernanke can soothe what ails the markets, we should be in good shape for at least the short term. If the markets turn their back on him, watch out below!

STANDARD TRADING GUIDELINES!
BUY LIMITS ARE GOOD TILL CANCELLED.
ALL STOPS EFFECTIVE ONLY WHEN THE STOCK CLOSES BELOW THE STOP PRICE.
ALWAYS SELL HALF ON A DOUBLE.



Please Trade Carefully.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Editor
J. Taylor Brown, Director of Research

FWIW:

Dec 26, 27 and 28 -- bull bull bull

Week of Triple Witching Dow up 12 of last 15

Mass confusion re: Santa Claus Rally.

"Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January."

Average gain 1.6% since 1969

Average gain 1.5% since 1950.

Page 112 of The Stock Trader's Almanac

MACD Triggers -- A Six-pack of Trades

December 2007
6 December 2007
MACD Triggers -- A Six-pack of Trades

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http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/getAlerts.do

Yearend Rally - 29 November 2007

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http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/getAlerts.do

29 November 2007

December's Vital Statistics

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...Our bullish call in the October issue and the MACD Buy Signal alert on October 4 both contained words of caution. The housing recession, financial sector earnings and slowing economic readings continue to plague the market. We may look back on current levels as a great buy point but, prudence should be implemented and stop losses heeded....

If Santa Claus should fail to call,
The bears may come to Broad & Wall

Most of the So-Called "January Effect" Takes Place in the Last Half of December

The Stock Trader's Almanac 2007 - Page 104

"Small-cap strength in the last half of December became more magnified after the 1987 market crash..."

"...It generally pays to get a head start on the January Effect in mid-December...."

The Almanac Investor ETF Lab 11/16/7
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & J. Taylor Brown
16th November 2007 - 09:19 AM

October 29-November 1

Little bull faces all 4 days.

"First Trading Day in November has been Fantastic, Dow Up 22 of Last 28 - 12 In a Row 1978-1990."

November Begins "Best Six Months" of The Year...