From: SliderOnTheBlack Sunday, Oct 13, 2002 5:01 PM
View Replies (1) / Respond to of 20235

Loantech..re: Gold Stocks
I think most of us like the usual mainly unhedged suspects:

NEM GG AEM GLG MDG KGC - No Amer Golds

HGMCY GFI DROOY - So African Golds

PAAS CDE HL SIL - Silver Stocks

FCX - gold/copper - huge reserves...discounted due to Indonesian political risk...which may get worse.

I don't follow the small/micro caps/ Jr/Explorers as much as others do... small caps - KGC/DROOY CDE/HL give me plenty of volatility & leverage.

For an initial entry/basket - If I had to limit it to 5 stocks - perhaps NEM GG HGMCY KGC PAAS....weighted in that order; which gives you some Lg/Med/Small Cap balance; with No Amer weighted safety, but a little So African/small cap leverage; with PASS as imo, the most solid/safe risk vs reward Silver play.

Go slow, be patient, don't get greedy; ease into this pullback - use & gap limit buy orders if this is an intial forray into the sector.

Good Luck






MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo

MLSOFT on US Gold Miners

--------------------------------

GG is indeed the safest and best bet of the North Americans. The knock on them was that their reserves were not all that big, but exploration this year in the Red Lake region has found large amounts of additional high grade ore. They are the lowest cost producer and have been doing reverse hedging this year, holding gold off of the market and they have zero debt with plenty of cash. Money flow shows very steady accumulation of the stock, which I always like to see.

GLG was my second choice based on overall reserves and strong, conservative management. It is one of the few golds that has been sitting right on its highs the past few weeks and money flow has shown steady accumulation.

I am not knowledgeable about gold stocks or gold mining and had to rely on the expertise of some friends to supplement what research I was able to do. Basically, I eliminated Barrick because it is the favorite of all the sell side analysts and because it is hedged, and also eliminated NEM because it is the favorite of all the institutions, which means it is probably overowned. HL's checkered past has kept me out of that one, and I have a smattering of juniors and exploration stocks, but no large positions in any of them except KGC, which is on its way to becoming a small major.

Gold is an area which I did as much research as I could, then just took my chances. Fortunately, I was early enough that I have plenty of cushion should I be making a poor decision by hanging on.

mlsoft
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=516043





MDA Thread #board-1320
Turnips Thread #board-1125
Trading Info #board-1220
Retrace #board-1345
PPT #board-1280
http://www.angelfire.lycos.com/goth/augieboo

CLASSIC SLIDER POST RE BEAR MARKET & PMs

----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17956016

Roebear re: "According to these figures, I would suggest there IS NO War premium, only an OPEC premium."


My point is that Crude Oil has the "risk premium" - not the OSX, or XOI stocks and understandably so...the market has very correctly (imho) refused to put any premium into the Oilpatch stocks - because a temporary spike in crude due to OPEC/Mid East supply/War Disruption risk - is NOT going to lead to any massive cap ex increase by the majors - leading to increased rig counts, dayrates and equipment & service momenteum.

The producers will just pocket the "premium" here... they should return it to shareholders via increased dividends imho.

If we don't go into Iraq, or if it's settled quickly; given the global economy; we could be doing a beeline to $14/$15 crude next year...and if the broad market continues to correct toward historically supported valuation multiples - then OSX 45-60 is in the cards imho. There could be a nice trading pop in the OSX stocks on the move into Iraq... a pop from the 60/70's here to the mid 90's even 100 is likely - but, it will be a great short opp at those levels and I like the risk vs reward of shorting that move up AFTER it occurs, rather than buying it here and counting on the rally.

We shall see...

It's all about Risk vs Reward here to me and there is not any compelling major play imho... other than Cash & Patience with a healthy position in PM's and a very slow - wide pricepoint average in strategy.

OSX 45-60 is longterm buy & hold territory and oilpatch stocks could drop significantly from here if the DOW goes to historic valuation multiples - let alone true Bear Market levels.

The conundrum is that we've fallen so far and seen such pain & capitulation that it's impossible for many stocks & sectors here to not seem "cheap"....but, few are by historic metric's and the DOW is unbelieveably over-priced historically.... on multiples of it's dividends - per Barrons...it's amazingly STILL valued at levels reflecting a speculative bull market !?!?!...and using trailing earnings (any why would anyone believe forward estimates ?) the case can (and has) been made for S&P 300...another 60% down from here...

EXHAUSTION is what will determine "the" bottom imho... when emotions, balance sheets, savings accounts, media coverage etc - are ALL "exhausted" and literally no one is any longer trying to call, or catch "the" bottom... only after that "timeframe" has passed.... will we all perhaps realize the bottom is in... time, not technical price points, or any one single event - will determine "the" bottom and imho.... it will be determined much past where and when it actually occured this time...

Months ago I mouthed a prediction here of 7% unemployment as a minimum and said I thought we might see 9%... well folks - 7% is dead ahead... it won't take many more Consolidated Freightway's or additional job cut waves from the IBM's of the world to get us there...

Unemployment is the next card the Bear is going to play...and given US Consumer Debt Loads... consumer spending which is 2/3rds of GDP is going to contract substantially.... soon, very soon... as only the Mortgage Refi Boom has kept it going... like "0%" financing in the auto sector... continually lower Mortgage Rates and the Refinance Boom which has supported sentiment and consumer spending... can't and won't last forever.

Companies are just not seeing earnings rebound and there is more accounting clean up's to come... job cuts are inevitable and corporate belt-tightening and cuts in cap ex are going to get tighter instead of rebounding strongly - as is reflected in virtually marketwide expectations going forward.

I think we may have another 1 to 2 years to sort out and assimilate what was truly a historic misallocation of capital and one of the greatest transfers of wealth (from Ma & Pa Kettle and our Pension Funds to the Rubinite Investment Banks)in history...

Patience, Cash and Gold/Silver...and maybe a few TIPS....RISK is overshadowing Reward in virtually every sector imho, other than Gold/Pm's.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17956016

(:




My Threads --
Archive of Trading Stuff #board-1220
PPT Archive #board-1280
Charting Experiments #board-1263

HI! I'LL BE POSTING MOST OF MY CHARTS & ANALYSIS ON LG'S NEW MDA BOARD, WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT #board-1320

Regards,

augieboo

(:



My Threads --
Archive of Trading Stuff #board-1220
PPT Archive #board-1280

I think the left shoulder is arguable. The flag looks good though and if it breaks down we surely could see it lower.

Little jo

How's the XAU? OW! (chart)



(:

augie

Well you did excellent work finding that list of symbols. It's taking some time sorting through them but thanks again.

You're welcome, but what work? All I did was copy and paste 'em. <ggg>

Nice work! Thanks!

Over 100 Jr. Gold Stocks Cut and Pasted from another SI board in June. Also some performance #'s at the bottom on select gold stocks. Darris
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17800961
To:4figureau who started this subject
From: 4figureau Saturday, Jun 29, 2002 11:03 AM
View Replies (1) / Respond to of 410

100 Plus Junior Mining Stocks...their Friday close...% gain from lows...and
a few words:
AAS.V ALAMOS MINERALS 0.79 +1,480.00%
1.5 Mil. PP will be used on the Salamandra property in Sonora, Mexico, JV
with National Gold
Corporation

AHR.V AMARC RSC 0.68 +83.78%
Drilling Fox River nickel, PGM project,Thompson, MB. Exploration planned for
newly acquired Mexican Au Prop.

ALS.V ALTIUS MINERALS 1.70 +314.63%
3 gold properties on Botwood basin. Drilling commenced on the Moosehead ppty
/ Haywood's Tognetti in on PP.

ARQ.V ANOORAQ RES 0.82 +100.00%
Hunter/Dickensen company with core asset of 37,000 hectares on Bushveld
platinum play in South Africa

ASM.V AVINO SILV GOLD 0.98 +292.00%
Holds 49% interest in Avino Silver mine near Durango, Mexico, and holds gold
pptys in B C incl a 50% int in Bralorne Pioneer Gold Mine.

BEPa.TO BRADSTONE EQ A 1.15 +447.62%
Well funded merger plan to create a merchant bank operated by Murray
Sinclair/Brian Bayley, Bob Atkinson/John Fleming and Rick Rule/Ed Mercaldo

BML.V BARKER MINERLS 0.350 +40.00%
Drill testing targets on its 260,000-acre volcanic massive sulphide prospect
near Williams Lake, B.C.

BPN.V BRALONE PIONEER 0.250 +400.00%
Plans to re-open the Bralorne Gold Mine, Pemberton, B.C., reported reserves,
311,285 ozs @ 0.29 oz/t

CDU.V CARDERO RESRCE 0.77 +234.78%
Condor Yacu ppty in Argentina returned average holes of 14.33 metres of
14.85 g/t au, 146 g/t ag, and 1.70% cu.... Olympic Dam style deposit in
Baja, Mexico

CG.V CARIBGOLD RSC 0.130 +116.67%
Holds Jacinto concession int., Cuba - 430,000 oz Au resource

CLH.V CORAL GOLD CP 0.320 +166.67%
Has property next to Placer Dome's Pipeline Au Mine, Nevada, P.D. plans 2002
expl., drilling if
warranted

CMD.V COMMANDER RSCS 0.300 +66.67%
Formerly Major General Res., spun-out diamond prop. Holds int. in Voisey Bay
prop. Opt. to Falconbridge

CMF.TO COMAPLEX MIN CP 1.35 +104.55%
Agreement with Doublestar to option its Zopilote gold property in Honduras,
to earn 50% interest by making expenditures of $2.5 million Can. over 4
years.

CSL.V CADRE RESOURCE 0.350 +600.00%
Caroni Project (Venezuela) to dredge alluvial material to produce ASTM spec.
granite/quartz-based sand and gravel aggregate.

CSM.V CONS MAYMAC 0.350 +775.00%
Acquiring 100% Midway Gold Project, Abitibi Gold Belt, NW Quebec, reported
prob reserve 420 m t. @ 0.201 oz/t

CTQ.TO CORRIENTE RES 0.99 +65.00%
Global exploration alliance with BHP on four separate porphyry
deposits..Panantza, Mirador, San Carlos and Warintza in Southeast
Ecuador...also copper-gold prospects at Mumbwa, Zambia.

CZN.TO CDN ZINC CORP 0.285 +137.50%
Prairie Creek Zinc Mine, Resou. 11.8 mil. T. 12.5% Zinc, 10.1% Pb, 5 oz Ag,
0.4% Cu/Damoti Lake Au Prop. Expl.

CZZ.V CDN ROYALTIES 0.74 +64.44%
Exploration on Nunavik (Ungava), Quebec nickel-copper-platinum-palladium
properties / 16 claims located in southern Beatty township, near Matheson,
Ont.

DML.V DONNER MINERALS 0.57 +418.18%
Large propty int. in South Voisey Bay optioned to Falconbridge who can earn
50% int. by spending $23 million

DNT.V CANDENTE RSCS 0.50 +316.67%
Exploration on its au/cu Luna ppty in Peru, and recently acquired 10
properties (734 claims) in the Botwood basin.

DRC.V DRC RESOURCES 3.00 +15.38%
Main project, the Afton Mine, resource of 2.2 bil lbs. Cu equiv. @ 2.5% or
6.7 million ozs Gold equiv., so far

DSP.V DIAMONDEX RSCS 1.05 +110.00%
10 diff. NWT diamond properties, recently acquired Peregrine dia. Cls. West
of Ashton's prop, Coronation district

EAX.V CONSOLID ETC 0.290 +190.00%
Earning int. in Anyox-Granby Penninsula prty, B.C. polymetallic mine
targeted

EEL.V EAGLECREST EXPL 0.170 +142.86%
Raising U.S. $3.7-million to finance underground exploration program at the
San Simon project in Bolivia.

EPMu.TO EUROPEAN MINRLS 0.54 +980.00%
Chala gold deposit in Bulgaria, and other initiatives in Central Europe.

ER.TO EASTMAIN RSC 0.440 +340.00%
1.483 mt @ 7.62 g/t. project in Northern Quebec... 50-50 JV with SOQUEM

EXR.V EXPATRIATE RES 0.140 +133.33%
Feature property Wolverine 60% int. 3.47 mil./t 12.4% Zn, 1.37% Cu, 337 g/t
Ag, Plus other portfolio of proptys

FDM.TO FIRST DYNASTY 0.270 +980.00%
Focus on in Asia and the Former Soviet Union... 50.5 mt @ 0.93g/t. at Ararat
plant in Armenia

FRG.V FRONTEER DEVLP 0.80 +233.33%
1/2 dozen Red Lake Au properties, grab samples upto 5.14 ozs p/t, drilling
planned, 2 properties optioned-out

GAM.TO GAMMON LAKE RSC 1.40 +366.67%
310 holes drilled at Ocampo Project in Chihuahua State, Mexico...Watts study
outlined 1.8 Mil. contained ozs. AU equivalent indicated and 637,000
inferred ounces.

GBG.V GREAT BASIN GLD 1.65 +334.21%
100% interest in 34 square KM Ivanhoe ppty in Carlin trend, Nevada.

GNG.V GOLDEN GOLIATH 0.450 +36.36%
Golds former producing Mexican Gold properties, currently drilling Corona
property, 15 holes
planned

GOG.V GOLDEN TAG RES 0.60 +500.00%
50% interest in McCuaig project (Red Lake) / 26 drill holes of which 13
holes tested gold-bearing structure

GQM.TO GOLDEN QUEEN 0.75 +476.92%
Developing the Soledad Mountain Project, Kern County, California ..44.6mt @
1.0g/t,
14.4Ag.

GRS.TO GLR RESOURCES 0.320 +23.08%
100 percent owned Goldfields Project consisting of two open pittable gold
deposits...resource over 1 Mil. oz. AU

GVY.V GREEN VALLEY 0.120 +300.00%
Holds copper-gold prospects, Kamloops & Clinton mining divisions, B.C.

IAU.V INTREPID MINRLS 0.75 +581.82%
Raising $850,000 for exploration on gold and silver assets in El Salvador
and Argentina

IMR.V IMA EXPL INC A 0.470 +56.67%
Acquired gold projects totalling 8,000 hectares in northwestern Peru / ABX
joint venture partner in Argentina

ITS.V INTL TAURUS 0.170 +240.00%
Holds 66% int. Fenelon Mine, open pit mng planned @ $150 oz Au cost, also 2
other Au projects with 2.5 mil. Oz res. / exploring for diamonds in James
Bay

IVU.V INTL PBX VENT 0.140 +133.33%
Holds int. in a titanium property, Otish Mountain diamond claims and
recently acquired Cu/Au Chilean Prop.

IWA.V INTL WAYSIDE 0.170 +88.89%
Exploring the Cariboo gold project near Wells/Barkerville, B.C. recently
raised over $700,000 for further exploration

KAN.V KANSAI MINING 0.240 +140.00%
$1.0 mil. Cash PP. held in escrow pending approval of acquir. 750,000 oz Au
Kenyan property

KG.V KLONDIKE GOLD 0.210 +320.00%
Phase 1 drilling on the Sullivan project, Kimberley area, B.C. commenced, 5
targets, phase 2 planned for June

KLA.V KALAHARI RSC 0.120 +200.00%
Holds int. in 6 Ontario and Quebec Gold Properties, all of them drill ready

KRY.TO CRYSTALLEX INTL 2.71 +64.24%
Intermediate producer of gold with operations and exploration properties in
Venezuela and Uruguay / in discussions with Ven gov aimed at resolving
Cristinas 4, (12 Mil. oz. AU) and 6 issues.

LKW.V LAKEWOOD MIN 0.120 +300.00%
Holds copper-gold prospects, Kamloops & Clinton mining divisions,

MAE.TO MIRAMAR MINING 1.64 +124.66%
Raised $30-million for exploration and development of the Hope Bay project
...3.363mt @ 15.4g/t, inferred 6.713mt @ 12.3g/t.

MAI.V MINERA ANDES 0.440 +1,000.00%
12 projects on a 163,000 hectares of land in Argentina / exploration at El
Pluma/Cerro Saavedra gold/silver land package in Santa Cruz Province.

MAT.V MATAMEC EXPLO 0.300 +114.29%
Exploring properties in the province of Quebec.

MDR.V MANSFIELD MIN 0.450 +309.09%
Interest in 6 diff. Argentinian precious and base metal properties - seeking
joint venture partners for all of them

MOA.V MOUNTAIN LAKE 0.62 +675.00%
Drilling program on its Valentine Lake gold property located in
Newfoundland.

NDE.V NDT VENTURES 0.190 +171.43%
A Northair Group co., holds property int. in Labrador, Argentina & a Nunavut
Au gold prop. - values upto 9.8 gpt

NDM.V NORTHERN DYNAST 1.09 +211.43%
Main property, the Pebble project, Alaska optioned from Teck-Cominco, Large
Copper-Gold Porphry potential

NEM.V NRTHRN EMPIRE 0.390 +225.00%
Has int. in 1.6 mil. Acres, Coronation area, Nunavut. Inc 30% in Potentilla
Pipe yielding +250 diamonds in sample

NGT.V NATL GOLD CORP 0.56 +366.67%
Alamos Mnrls earning 50% int. from National - in Salamandra Gold Project.
Mexico by expending $2.3 million

NPG.V NEVADA PAC GOLD 0.52 +160.00%
Holds properties at Carlin Trend, Nevada - currently drilling the South
Carlin property - 9,000 ft, 5 targets to test

NSU.TO NEVSUN RES LTD 1.46 +711.11%
Holds int. Mali propty's, 02' feasibility sch. Tabakoto pty, 68,000 oz Au
p/yr

PEX.V PAC RIDGE EXPL 0.100 +400.00%
To earn a 51-per-cent interest in the Highway prospect property (Canadian
Royalties) and incur exploration expenditures totalling $2-million over the
next four years

PFN.TO PACIFIC NW CAPL 0.55 +37.50%
Anglo Platinum earning 65% int., River Valley PGM prop., Sudbury, Ontario,
initial res. 593,000 ozs PGM/Au

PGI.V PHILEX GOLD 1.30 +160.00%
Anglo American Gold earning int. in Boyongan Copper-Gold deposit, e.g. 187m
2.58% Cu, 4.47 g/t Au, 4 rigs drilling

PLY.V PLAYFAIR MINING 0.130 +18.18%
Planning 2nd phase drilling, San Miguel, Mexico. Soil sample grades 8.5%
zinc, 4.8% pd, 0.8% Cu, 4.0 ozs Ag.

PMU.TO PACIFIC MINING 0.93 +272.00%
Merged with Dayton Mining Ap/02, holds 100% int. in El Dorado gold project,
El Salvador & 49% int. - Denton-Rawhide Mn, NV

QRL.TO QUEENSTAKE RES 0.290 +314.29%
Most significant propty Magistral, Mexico, slated for production, current
reserv. 268,500 oz Au, plan to expand

QTA.V QUATERRA RES 0.100 +11.11%
Has mineral int. in Mexico, Alaska & Ontario - currently drilling 15
targets, 2,000 metre, Abitibi, Ontario

RCW.V ROCKWELL VNTRS 0.180 +50.00%
An option to earn from Falconbridge Limited a 60% participating joint
venture interest in the 314,000 hectare Fox River property located 250 km
east of Thompson, Manitoba.

RDK.V REDHAWK RES 0.160 +23.08%
Mineral int in Guatemala & BC. Has Remac zinc prop-35 km south Trail -
optioned-out in return $3.0 mil. explor.

RDU.V RADIUS EXPL LTD 0.51 +155.00%
Goldfields S.A. own about 10% int. in co., has portfolio of Guatemalan Au
properties, 02' drilling & expl. Planned

RDV.TO REDCORP VENTURE 0.310 +342.86%
Hawk high-grade gold project in north-central B.C. / waiting for a new
approval certificate from B.C. gov for Tulsequah zinc-gold-silver-copper
project.

RED.V RED EMERALD RSC 1.41 +840.00%
Midway property in central Nevada, has confirmed high gold content with
coarse gold observed over a 14-foot interval... eight holes totalling 1,801
feet of a 5,000-foot program have been completed

RFM.V RIMFIRE MNRLS 0.65 +85.71%
Letter of intent granting ABX option on RDN property in NW B.C.... also
acquired Adam Property.

RUP.V RUPERT RES 0.230 +475.00%
Searching for gold at Red Lake

SEA.V SEABRIDGE GOLD 2.90 +663.16%
Closing of the Tundra acquisition to expand total gold resources to 8
projects and approx 14 million ounces

SJD.V ST JUDE RES 0.75 +341.18%
Primary property, Hwini-Butre concession, Ghana, updated Au resource
awaited, currently drilling adjacent prop.

SLI.V ST ELIAS MINES 0.170 +240.00%
Option to earn 51% int. in the Jales gold property Portugal, past production
of 830,000 ozs Au @ avg. grade 12.9 g/t

SML.V STEALTH MNRLS 0.180 +350.00%
Potential resource of 200 million tonnes on Pine ppty 5 KM from Kemess
North, Toodoggone District, NC B.C. grading between 0.25 and 0.70 g/t AU and
0.12% and 0.30% CU.

SNZ.V SOUTHERN RIO 0.250 +525.00%
Three new projects (2 in BC and 1 in Ont.) to carry out additional
exploration with the main focus on the 3Ts gold-silver project in central
BC.

SRB.V SOLOMON RES 0.180 +350.00%
Holds int. in a number of Au properties, Goldfields S.A. earning int. in
Kalgoorlie pty, Aus., e.g. 22.4 g/t Au highgrade

SRU.V STARFIELD RSCS 0.490 +63.33%
Holds Ferguson Lake polymetallic propty, Nunavut, inferred resource, 61.0
mil. T., 0.93% Cu, 0.59% Ni, 1.32 g/t pd

SUL.V SULTAN MIN INC 0.270 +125.00%
To drill 40 holes on it's Kena property located north of Ymir in
southeastern British Columbia

SWG.TO STHWESTN RSCS 3.03 +31.74%
Holds int. in Au, Ag, base metal & diamond ptys located in Canada, Peru,
Chile & China. RB Mutual Fund Top Pick

SWM.V SHERWOOD MINING 0.200 +17.65%
Main asset is the Elu Project, in Nunavut.. a 50/50 joint venture between
Miramar.

SWV.V STORNOWAY VENTR 0.360 +260.00%
Optioned 925,000 acres Coronation diamond prptys, inc. 60% in cls near the
Potentilla, Artemisia & Knife dia. Pipes

TKO.V TASEKO MINES 0.55 +52.78%
Indicated 64 Mil. tons @ 1.53g/t AU... recently acquired from Misty Mountain
Gold

TNX.TO TAN RANGE EXPLR 0.78 +290.00%
Holds 90% int-Itetemia gold prop.-Barrick Gold may earn 60% int by develop.
Property to prefeasibility stage.

TRC.V TERYL RESOURCE 0.180 +260.00%
Holds int. in Dome Creek area, Alaskan Au prptys. 70% of 1 prpty optioned to
Kinross Gold for $1.5 mil exploration

TRR.V TNR RESOURCES 0.160 +220.00%
Agreement with NovaGold on their Rock Creek and Shotgun gold deposits in
Alaska... and partnership to develop Solitario's Argentina subsidiary.

TWG.TO TWIN MINING CP 0.50 +51.52%
BOD approved phase 1 of a $10-million budget to further explore the Jackson
Inlet diamond property.

UNO.V FST NARROWS RSC 0.270 +440.00%
Earning 80% int. in Coronation diamond prpty, fill-in geophysical being done
with diamond drilling planned.

VLG.V VALERIE GOLD 0.300 +20.00%
Holds int. in two Manitoban diamond propertys, also mineral properties in
Manitoba and Ontario

VVC.V VVC EXPLORATION 0.290 +625.00%
Staking in the Botwood gold trend ...acquired 166 additional claims, adding
to the 173 claims.

WKR.V WHITE KNIGHT 0.210 +425.00%
Holds int. in 5 Nevada Gold Prospects; Indian Ranch prty optioned to
Kennecott Expl. Req. $4 mil. Expl. By Dec/05

WRM.TO WHEATON RIVER 1.47 +212.77%
Recently acquired Luisman SA of Mexico, operates 3 Au & Ag mines producing
190,000 ozs Au equiv. per year.

XCL.TO X-CAL RESOURCES 0.63 +687.50%
Sleeper Gold and Mill Creek Property on the Battle Mountain trend in
Nevada...also the Snowbird Gold Deposit at Fort St. James, BC.

YBR.V BOULDER MINING 0.230 +1,050.00%
Initiated exploration program on iron oxide copper-gold project located
within the 19,000 ha Tevrede Property in northern Namibia.

YBZ.V BRAZILIAN RSC 0.060 +500.00%
Has business interests in mining, energy and telecommunications in Brazil.

YCU.V COPPER HILL 0.060 +500.00%
Properties in Botwood Basin, Labrador, and in Nunavut.

YMCu.V ANATOLIA MIN 0.96 +317.39%
Rio Tinto earning 65% int. in Copler project, Turkey, 3.6 mil. T resource so
far, with apparent upside

YOD.V ODYSSEY RSC LTD 0.400 +400.00%
Optioned advanced Turkish Au property from Teck-Cominco. E.g. 0.093 oz/t
over 259 ft

YPM.V PELANGIO MINES 0.260 +420.00%
STAZ JV ppty under option to Harte Resources ..held jointly with Newmont
Canada Limited and Pelangio Mines. AU exploration project located in the
Harker-Holloway area in Northern
Ontario... intersected 18.2 m grading 1.86 g/t AU

YVG.V VEDRON GOLD 0.190 +1,800.00%
AU exploration with ppty (Fuller deposit) in the Timmins Gold Camp.

YWO.V WOLFDEN RSCS 1.52 +462.96%
High Lake Property in Nunavut Canada. Currently, the drill- indicated
resource is 5.3 million tonnes averaging 4.05% Copper, 2.36% Zinc, 1.76 g/t
Gold and 31.73 g/t Silver.

Gold Mining company performance from Jan 2, 2002 to July 12, 2002

1) EPM.U ----- +550% --- European Minerals -- CDNX
2) CALVF ----- +510% --- Caledonia -- OTC
3) SLGLF ----- +416% --- Silverado -- OTC
4) XCL -------- +413% --- X-Cal -- CDNX
5) GPXM ------ +367% --- Golden Phoenix -- OTC
6) HL ---------- +361% --- Hecla -- NYSE
7) BGO -------- +270% --- BEma Gold -- CDNX (AMEX)
8) NGG -------- +225% --- New Guinea Gold -- CDNX
9) DROOY ----- +209% --- Durban Roodepoort Deep -- OTC
10) CBD -------- +207% --- Cumberland -- CDNX
11) KGC -------- +203% --- Kinross Gold -- AMEX
12) PMU -------- +188% --- Pacific Rim -- CDNX (AMEX)
13) MFL -------- +187% --- Minefinders -- CDNX
14) GSS -------- +176% --- Golden Star -- AMEX
15) CDE -------- +172% --- Coeur d'Alene -- NYSE
16) GAM -------- +172% --- Gammon Lake -- CDNX
17) TVX -------- +171% --- TVX Gold -- CDNX (NYSE)
18) GLG -------- +152% --- Glamis Gold -- CDNX (NYSE)
19) RDS -------- +141% --- Radisson Gold -- CDNX
20) MYNG ------ +140% --- Golden Eagle Intl. -- OTC
21) WRM ------- +139% --- Wheaton River -- CDNX
22) SSRI ------- +135% --- Silver Standard -- OTC
23) GSL -------- +118% --- Greystar -- CDNX
24) ECO ------- +115% --- Echo Bay -- NYSE
25) VOY -------- +114% --- Viceroy -- CDNX
26) NPG -------- +109% --- Nevada Pacific Gold -- CDNX

SIR REALIST on GOLD "Heavy Metal by the numbers: a nearterm case for gold" (Related charts at bottom of this post)
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17801854

What follows is not the comprehensive metals list. Rather, it's those that were the most popular, principally because of their massive percentage gains in 52 weeks. Most descriptions and numbers came from NASDAQ's site.

Market caps and PE shown are at close of 7/26/02. GFI and SSRI may not have PEs; I have conflicting data.

In most cases, current shorts can cover within 1 day's normal volume... unless otherwise noted. South African companies apparently don't release earnings reports via usual channels, so I'm not sure where to find that info.

(Asterisk denotes those that grew 300% or better in 52 wks. Double asterisk denotes those that exceeded 400%. DROOY & HL nearly reached 600%!)

Symbol - 52 wk range - PE - shorts as of 7/15 - mkt cap - shares outstanding - earnings report date

*HGMCY (4.51-19.00) 3M $1.68B 168M (No reports)
Harmony Gold Mining Company specializes in turning old digs into new digs. Harmony is South Africa's third-largest gold miner after AngloGold and Gold Fields Limited. The company buys mature gold mines with lagging production and turns them into low-cost, high-productivity mines. Harmony's mining operations in South Africa and Canada produce about 2.5 million ounces of gold annually. The company also owns about 17% of Goldfields Limited of Australia (which is merging with Delta Gold) and 31% of Australia's Bendigo Mining. Continuing to dig its way to the future, Harmony acquired four more African mines from AngloGold for $224 million in 2001.

RGLD (4.46-15.95) (PE 47.86) 333K (limited insider sells) $180M 18M Approx 8/9
Royal Gold will only deal with royalty. Rather than operating gold mines, the firm buys the right to collect royalties from mine operators in exchange for cash investments. This strategy allows Royal Gold to minimize its exposure to gold prices and the costs of mining gold ore. With gold stocks out of favor and financing difficult for miners to obtain, Royal Gold's strategy has allowed it to acquire royalty stakes in properties owned by major gold producers such as Placer Dome, Rio Tinto, and AngloGold. The company holds royalty interests in mining operations in Nevada and Argentina, and in development-stage projects in Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania. Management and directors own about 30% of Royal Gold.

*GFI (3.82-17.15) (PE 26.47; not certain) 2.5M $4.22B 469M Approx 8/2
One of the world's largest gold exploration and development companies, Gold Fields was formed from the merged gold interests of Gold Fields of South Africa and Gencor Limited. The company is South Africa's #2 gold producer (after AngloGold, the world's largest gold miner). Gold Fields produces about 3.7 million ounces of gold a year at its mines in South Africa (Beatrix, Driefontein, Kloof, Leeudoorn, Libanon, St Helena) and Ghana (Tarkwa). The company's mineral reserves contain more than 80 million ounces of gold. Bent on global expansion, in 2001Gold Fields joined an Australian gold rush-via-acquisition by buying the Agnew and St. Ives mines from WMC. Anglo American is Gold Fields' largest shareholder (20%).

RANGY (2.29-8.00) 21K $50M 14M (No reports)
A descendant of Rand Mines Limited, South Africa's oldest mining house, holding company Randgold & Exploration produces gold through subsidiaries and various cross-holdings. Its 59%-owned Randgold Resources subsidiary, which is being spun off, owns mining interests in western Africa, including 40% of one of Africa's premiere gold mines, the Morila mine (a joint venture with AngloGold) in Mali, and projects in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal. Randgold Resources' properties hold around 2.85 million ounces of gold in reserves. Chairman Roger Kebble and his family control Randgold & Exploration (along with other entities involved in the gold industry, such as JCI Gold Ltd. and Consolidated African Mines Ltd.).

GG (4.69-12.35) (PE 21.73) 5.2M(2.91 days at ave. volume) $1.3B 182M Reported 7/24
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/news/articles.asp?guid={BA3...
Precious few companies have a name as self-explanatory as Goldcorp. The gold mining company operates the Red Lake Mine in Ontario and the Wharf Mine in South Dakota. Goldcorp's mines produce more than 600,000 ounces of gold annually and have reserves of over 4.3 million ounces. Gold, sold as bullion, accounts for 80% of sales. The company got a new lease on life after state authorities in South Dakota approved expanded operations at its Wharf Mine. Goldcorp also processes sodium sulfate in Saskatchewan, Canada. Sodium sulfate is an industrial mineral used in the production of detergents, paper, glass, textiles, and carpet deodorizer. Chairman and CEO Robert McEwen owns 7% of Goldcorp.

**DROOY (0.75-5.88) 630K $409M 177M (No reports)
Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) is rooting deep for profits. The gold mining and refining company has been mining west of Johannesburg since 1895. DRD produced more than 1 million ounces of gold in 2000, and it has more than 14 million ounces in proven and probable reserves. Formerly part of Randgold & Exploration Co., DRD was reborn as an independent entity in 1997 when Randgold unbundled it and allowed it to acquire its sister companies, Blyvooruitzicht Gold Mining and Buffelsfontein Gold Mines. DRD is pursuing ultra-deep mining at depths of almost two and a half miles. It has mines in South Africa and Papua New Guinea and has purchased stakes in three Australian mining companies.

*KGC (0.62-2.90) 7.4M(3.75 days at ave volume) $480M 358M Approx 7/30
Kinross Gold digs gold mining so much, especially since prices have improved, that it's buying fellow Canadian gold miners Echo Bay Mines and TVX Gold. The deal will make Kinross one of North America's top gold miners, upping its production to around 2 million ounces annually. Kinross (with subsidiary Kinam Gold) already produces nearly 945,000 ounces of gold per year at mines around the globe. About 85% of the company's production comes from just three mines -- Fort Knox in Alaska, Hoyle Pond in Canada, and 55%-owned Kubaka in far eastern Russia. The pending deal includes Kinross' acquisition of the 49.9% that Newmont Mining owns in the TVX Newmont Americas joint venture.

**BGO (0.29-1.92) 428K $213M 234M Approx 8/22
Nothing makes Bema Gold beam more than a promising gold strike. The mining company owns a 79% stake in the Julietta Mine (Russia), which is expected to produce 100,000 ounces of gold annually (production began in September 2001). Bema's 50%-owned Refugio Mine (Chile), which produced 170,000 ounces in 2000, has been mothballed until the price of gold stabilizes. Other interests include the Aldebaran Mine (Chile), which contains the rich Cerro Casale gold-copper deposit; the Yarnell Mine (US); the Monument Bay development (Canada); and a Russian platinum-palladium project. With gold prices in flux, Bema has partnered with other gold miners, including Kinross Gold and Placer Dome, for exploration and development.

____________________________

Next are the popular silvers. I listed HL in here because I think its best value projections come from silver though it properly is heavier weighted earnings-wise towards gold. Note that Warren Buffett owns a lot of silver and Gates owns 12% of PAAS... that should tell ya something.

PAAS (3.00-9.85) 960K(1.5 days at ave. volume) 1 seller filed 2 144s in June $204M 41M Approx 8/13
Pan American Silver could line every cloud in the sky. The exploration and mining company controls nearly 163 million ounces of silver (proven and probable reserves), mainly in the Americas. Its projects include the Quiruvilca and Huarón mines, both in Peru, which produce around 6 million ounces of silver annually, as well as copper, lead, and zinc. Pan American owns a 20% interest in Russia's Dukat Mine, one of the world's largest known silver deposits. It has exploration projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru, and is buying Corner Bay Silver, which owns a gold-silver project in Mexico. Pan American is hoping that new high-tech and advanced medical uses for silver will bump up the metal's price.

**SSRI (1.47-7.80) (PE 60.59; not certain) 752K(1.14 days at ave volume) $66M 20M Approx 8/31?
Silver Standard Resources' properties hold one of the largest silver reserves (over nearly 500 million ounces, proven and inferred) of any publicly traded company. About 82% of Silver Standard's assets are in silver, the rest in by-product metals such as gold. The company's Bowdens Mine near Sidney, Australia, is expected to produce 4.5 million ounces of silver annually. Silver Standard has acquired a 50% stake in the Manantial Espejo Property in southern Argentina, which is expect to produce 3.3 million ounces of silver and 75,000 ounces of gold annually. Other properties include the Candelaria Mine in Nevada; the Shafter Project in Texas; and the Diablillos silver-gold project in Argentina.

*CDE (0.63-2.50) 7.2M(3.98 days at ave volume) $96M 73M Approx 8/15
Coeur d'Alene Mines explores for and mines silver and gold properties in the US (Nevada, Idaho, and Alaska) and South America (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile). The company's mines produce about 10.9 million ounces of silver and 96,000 ounces of gold annually. Coeur has proven and probable reserves of about 88 million ounces of silver and 2.7 million ounces of gold -- its Kensington project (Alaska) has over 1.75 million ounces of gold reserves, while its Rochester Mine (Nevada) has over 345,000 ounces of gold. To focus on its core operations, Coeur has sold its Australian properties (including Golden Cross). Copper mining giant ASARCO, part of Nuevo Grupo Mexico, owns 19% of Coeur.

**HL (.77-5.90) 5.3M(3.33 days at ave volume) some insider selling Apr/May $182M 75M Approx 8/2
Not all that glitters at Hecla Mining is gold -- some of it is silver. Hecla, which dates to 1891, explores for and mines gold (about 60% of sales), silver, lead, and zinc. The company produces nearly 195,000 ounces of gold and more than seven million ounces of silver annually. It operates mines in the US (Alaska and Idaho), Mexico, and Venezuela. Hecla has sold its industrial minerals segment (clay, kaolin, and feldspar; about 55% of 1999 sales). The company, which has suffered ten years of losses, will focus on expanding its gold and silver reserves through exploration and acquisitions.

---Some final thoughts:

First: KGC, GFI and HL likely report next week. HL and DROOY were the best performers this past year, though KGC and GFI were none too shabby. HL is a turnaround story. KGC is a growth story. HL and KGC are the heaviest shorted, compared to their average volumes/day. From this and the charts, I think DROOY HL GFI and KGC, in that order, may provide the most upside on this rebound.

Second: to review the dollar chart, go here: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[g,a]macl...

Third: Because of gold's need for a rebound and the COMP & DJIA charts, I expect we may see the bottom of the DJIA doji Monday, while gold rallies some.

Finally, 15 charts that explain much more should be reviewed:

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=4556&u=sirreal...

No problem. I notice gold up nice this am in asia. $2.00 out of the gate. Could be interesting.

Little joe

OOPS! You're right! I remembered (from Bulkowski) that it's okay for the neckline to have a steep slope, and I somehow came up with the idea that it's okay for the whole dang thing to slope. I sit corrected! <g

Augie:

You are right, we were not looking at the same thing, but I have a problem with your interpretation. I always thought that a H&S top required that the head be the highpoint of the formation. In your interpretation the left shoulder would be the high point of the formation. I do not think it would qualify as a H&S or potential H&S.

Little joe

Today I cannot get onto Silicon Investor. Is it me or are they finally down?

MISH ON GOLD STOCKS:

I bought some ECO today at 1.08 and 1.10. At $1 or so I will double up. At .80 I triple up and hold.
In the meantime if gold spikes up, I will sell it and wait for a retrace. There's always another train.

That is my plan. It was less than 3% of the account.

M

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17754836

ZEEV ON GOLD & GOLD STOCKS:

Sylvestor80 said:

The question then is, would you buy a stock now that has gone up 400% when the underlying reason for that 400% increase has only gone up 18%? Sounds like a bubble to me... lol http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17754322

And Zeev responded:

Syl, here you are making a big mistake, the earnings of gold companies with cash cost in the $270/ounce were negative or close to nil six months ago, and the price of the shares reflected the poor outlook, but at $300, some of these companies' earning could go up by a factor of 5 or 10, and thus the 400% price rise in the shares reflects the new reality accurately. The real question is whether gold will hold above $297, if it does, another attack on the $330/40 area will follow, and if the dollar continues its plunge, i think that higher gold prices will follow as well.
Zeev
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg_multireplies.gsp?msgid=17754322

Little Joe, I think you're not looking at what I'm looking at. The entire formation slants sharply to the right; the left shoulder is higher, (in absolute terms), than the head, and the right shoulder is still being formed. As I said, or at least should have said, it's still a potential H&S at this point.

Thanks for starting this thread. I think it will be fun and we can all share our knowledge. I am not sure that I would call the formation a H&S. The left shoulder if I am reading what you see is highly questionable and the neckline ascends very sharply. Also, if there is a head and shoulder by my read the neckline has been pierced. I really don't think there is a left shoulder at all. This is because it is too far from the head and not clearly formed. I think the better technical approach to this market is to watch the pennants that are forming in some of the best gold stocks. I will follow whichever way those pennants break. I suspect that they will not all break out at the same time and that we may get a few hours to a day's warning. That is when I will pull the trigger.


Little joe

Willcan, I looked at KRY, but decided to stay away for two reasons: [1] they are hedged, and "everybody" says hedged miners' stocks don't run as well as unhedged; and, [2] they have a lot of operations in Venezuela, which is pretty chaotic these days.

Gotta - make that plan and follow it !!

I know what you mean. I find that when I do use stops correctly, and get stopped out, it's VERY hard to buy back into that same stock, even though it's at a lower price. It feels like I'm reaching for the hot stove that just burned me, you know?

So then I switch to a different stock, buy it, but can't make myself put in the stop loss order. So I get burned again, but in a different way.

AAARRRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

Let's face it, the long term equity trend is DOWN. Zeev can swim uphill against the current, but I'm just not fast enough. This is why I've decided to start concentrating on gold stocks and inversely proportionate mutual funds.

I figure that by picking my plays very carefully and playing with the trend, instead of against it, I won't have to time everything so farking perfectly, and if I get in at the wrong price, the trend will eventually come to my rescue -- at least most of the time. (You were right to get out of KRY, IMHO, because that stock is just getting slaughtered for some reason.)

As Clint says, "A man's gotta know his limitations."

Pierre, I think Zeev is pretty much in full-on rally mode, but then that can change moment by moment. Frankly, this market scares me so much I've stopped paying much attention until options expiration week ends. Sorry I can't be more help. ):

Augieboo,
Have you looked at KRY ?
Bought Cau & Kry last mo circa $2+ ,
Made a bit - CAU , lost a bit KRY
...

Looks like KRY might be at some resistance.
Not that good at TA, use it w/news and just sense.
IE Had RMBS a few weeks ago under $4 (a bit early-
went to low 3 - Now 6.75..

Bummer that I got stopped out @ 4.18 and didn't get back in!
Gotta - make that plan and follow it !!

@ac@ ( a Zeev lappuppie !!! )

augieboo:

Was out of town for a long weekend and wondered if you could direct me to a recent post by Zeev refining his longer term analysis. I thought I saw one recently about concern that we may revisit the 1250 - 1300 area prior to the anticipated summer rally. Don't want to trouble Zeev asking him to restate something already in one of his messages. Not sure how to search for his "overview updates. Thought you might know of its whereabouts.

TIA.

Pierre

Pierre

<Just don't shoot me>
One of my Favorite shows...

You're welcome. Just don't shoot me if I'm 180 degrees wrong!

thanks..

Some others that look just about ready to lift off, i.e., either today or within a few days:

GLG
breakout point ~$10
target ~$13.50.

KGC:
breakout point ~$2.40
target ~$3.40

PAAS:
breakout just under $9.00
target ~$12.00

SSRI:
breakout ~$7.00
target ~$11.00

TVX:
breakout just under $15.00
target $21.00

AGREED...

$9.50 looks like the sweet spot for GG. It could go to $14 from there if that pennant breaks upward on this trip.

Currently holding HGMCY..GSS..KRY.BGO..DROY sold GG at 10.50 Monday looking to get back in..at 9.50

I think the POG goes down for a while, but once it becomes clear that Shrub is serious about cleansing the world of that viral scum Sodomy Hussein, it'll spike up. Plus, when J6P figures out that buying every dip just proves that he's a dip-chit, it'll have more upward pressure.

As far as the stocks go, the charts SEEM to say that some of them, at least, are fixing to go up pretty soon. Note, however, that I only follow U.S. and Canadian goldies, since SA started messing around with mineral rights. I'm not sure that SA is actually going to nationalize anything, but I'm not taking any chances, you know?

So where do you think gold goes to Augieboo?

You're right it was 11am EST. Everything since then was lower.

I have 11:00 as the high, but I know what you mean. The only thing different is that today the NDX managed to spike through the 20 EMA for a short time, something it hasn't done since May options expiration. Back then it managed to jump over the 20 EMA and stay for a few days. BUT, that was also necessary to make Max Pain. Da Boyz don't have that kind of motivation this month, since we are rutting around in M.P. already. So, maybe we get up and over it, but I'm not putting a dime on the prospect.

After being unable to exceed this mornings high the NDX has given up quite a bit of ground already. 10am might have been the high?

I agree, especially after this rally sputters to a stop, which I think is likely to happen sooner rather than later. BWDIK?

In any event, I'm fixin' to gold long on the shiny yellow stuff.

I think gold stocks are going to resume their uptrend.

Hi MM! You surprised me. I didn't expect any visitors so soon. Yes indeedy, that is a rather scary looking H&S, but the gold stocks seem to be ignoring it completely. Truly a strange market these days!

$XAU, $HUI & 13 POTENTIAL GOLD BREAKOUTS:

$HUI seems to have broken out of a pennant pattern, only to collapse back down into it. I'm not sure if it is best referred to as a broken pennant, or a new pennant, or something else altogether.



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$XAU: The good news is that it's drawing a pretty BIG bull flag. The bad news is XAU could easily drop to 65, possibly even lower, before it resolves itself. (And, of course, there's no guarantee it will resolve in the desired direction.)



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ABX looks like a monster something -- bull flag?



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AEM, another bull flag:



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CAU ditto:



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CDE broke very nicely out of its bullish pennant into a bear flag, and has started to retrace:



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GG -- another bullish pennant:



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GLG yet another one:



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KGC ditto:



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MDG looks like it should pop for $5 if it goes the correct direction:



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PAAS looks like it could spring for a $3 pop any time now:



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RGLD looks like a $4 pop, (potentially, of course):



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SSRI is a bit of a puzzle, much like the $HUI. I can't tell for sure if it's a rising triangle which is collapsing back onto itself, or a pennant. It's got an awful lot of airspace along the top to be a pennant... Hmm..

That HS looks scary.

H&S on GOLD FUTURES: