American Security Resources Corp. (ARSC): As many people are aware, I've started a...

American Security Resources Corp. (ARSC)

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lowman

Re: lowman post# 383

Friday, 04/14/2006 3:17:38 AM

Friday, April 14, 2006 3:17:38 AM

As many people are aware, I've started a good number of O&G and alt. energy boards. The reasons are obvious. However, after studying these somewhat closely, I have concluded that as much as O&G will remain profitable, for the most part, the sector suffers several dilemmas.

1). All the leases in Alaska doesn't mean squat if you don't have a rig to drill with.

2). Leases expire, whether you tapped 'em out or not. No refunds, either.

3). There are only so many rigs available, and unlike automobiles, there are no production line companies producing them in the quantities which present demand could use. Rig manufacturers were somewhat caught unaware of this recent boom, in order to prepare inventory of rigs.

4). Dry holes can kill a company (and your investment).

5). There are many 'newbies' entering the industry, and many are bound to make mistakes, in the office and in the field. We have lost many old timers to retirement, and those still in the field are in HIGH demand, demanding high pay, which further reduces the profits which can be made.

In the end, what it boils down to is, just because they're an O&G doesn't mean they're a good investment. Considering all the dilemmas they have to deal with, it's not hard to see why most have a hell of a time getting out of pennyland, even when one would think they should all be booming like crazy. Plus, the competition is actually somewhat fierce, in various ways.

IMO, the best money will be made in companies that have monopolies of the alt energy they specialize in. Of course, my viewpoint is long-term, so none of this really applies to the day/short term trader.

L~

"took me 3 long years to make a million bucks over night"

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