That is one of many reasons that I still have a low sometime this Autumn. Since the market discounts a good six months ahead (even unmaterializing events <g>) and since I expect the full impact of all the stimulus to build up into next year, I expected the much rosier economic environment next year to be reflected in a strong market late this year and during the first half next year. If we continue straight up here, there will not be much room left and by next June/November, the market may start and anticipate another economic relapse in 2005. Of course, instead of an actual strong low in Autumn, we could trade in a trading range and a "holding pattern" till then. However, because many sentiment indicators are so stretched, I lean to the model that postulates an actual sharp decline into the Autumn will precede a year end rally leading into a strong early 2004.
