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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: fisherman post# 147509

Wednesday, 09/03/2003 6:10:10 PM

Wednesday, September 03, 2003 6:10:10 PM

Post# of 704019
But once more, there was no sarcasm. I think that we need a healthy and maybe even scary retrenchment before we can resume the march up into next year. Now, just because I "think" so, it does not mean that is what the market will do. I don't always get what I want and thus the opportunity to go very low cash (in the 10% to 20% range). My thinking since mid July has not changed appreciably (see for instance #msg-1216397, #msg-1217194, #msg-1259631 and for instance #msg-1384485.

Just because the market scares me here, it does not mean that opportunistic situations are not exploited.
For instance, on the last drop to 1640 (8/8-8/9), I went very low cash (suggested range for instance in #msg-1289004 and "declaration" of only 10% cash for instance here #msg-1297575), expecting again a bounce, the bounce, once more was much more than I expected (because the August low had no major sentiments changes). I was wrong, I am wrong often enough, I can live with it, why can't you? I have said a number of times that for a major correction I'll need to see Naz lows expansion beyond 40 ( #msg-1321855), and until we see that I doubt that shorting strategies will be fruitful.

I don't see why you interpret my stance as extremely negative, it is simply very cautious, it will become negative once I see a number of "things" happening, and it will become positive if I see another set of "things" happening. In the meanwhile, since capital preservation is my main goal, I stay out of the way and am quite happy to harvest occasional victories here and there, and even suffer few major defeats (like NVEC today).

By the way, yesterday we got another reading of the equity P/C ratio sans QQQ under .42 (we had $.36, today, no cigar, just .46), it used to be a safe signal that a major top is within ten trading days (thus my call on 8/15 for such a window ending last Friday, wrong again). Why am I still using it, it worked perfectly in the past, it worked early January this year and on my "to the hills call" 8/22 last year and many other occasions. Just because it does not work few times does not require I abandon such warning signals.


AZH

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