Hey Wade,
Here are a some forward EPS X PE scenarios for 2006 & 2007:
(EPS are rounded)
2006 with 55M O/S
1) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $3M EPS=.05 X 15PE= $0.75; 20PE= $1.00
2) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $4M EPS=.07 X 15PE= $1.05; 20PE= $1.40
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2007 with 55M O/S
3) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $5M EPS=.09 X 15PE= $1.35; 20PE= $1.80
4) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $6M EPS=.11 X 15PE= $1.65; 20PE= $2.20
5) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $7M EPS=.13 X 15PE= $1.95; 20PE= $2.60
6) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $8M EPS=.15 X 15PE= $2.25; 20PE= $3.00
7) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $9M EPS=.16 X 15PE= $2.40; 20PE= $3.20
8) O/S=55M, Annual NP of $10M EPS=.18 X 15PE= $2.70; 20PE= $3.60
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2007 with 80M O/S: (just for the heck of it)
9) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $5M EPS=.06 X 15PE= $0.90; 20PE= $1.20
10) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $6M EPS=.08 X 15PE= $1.20; 20PE= $1.60
11) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $7M EPS=.09 X 15PE= $1.35; 20PE= $1.80
12) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $8M EPS=.10 X 15PE= $1.50; 20PE= $2.00
13) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $9M EPS=.11 X 15PE= $1.65; 20PE= $2.20
14) O/S=80M, Annual NP of $10M EPS=.13 X 15PE= $1.95; 20PE= $2.60
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a) 1 month 7/06 annualized 2006 NP= $7.3M ($7M won't happen in '06)
b) 1st 7 months annualized 2006 NP= $1.4M (that shouldn't happen either)
c) need NP of $320M and $520M per month from August through December to effect a 2006 NP of $3M and $4M, respectively.
d) I think a forward PE of 20 on estimated 2007 NP will come into play once we receive 3QTR'06 numbers and some quidance.
e) you know what to change if you want smaller or larger numbers.
Wade, with respect to the NOBO list, I suspect they have the list by now. They also may try to get the number of shares owned by OBO's. If in fact there is no NSS with AAGH, it wouldn't be a bad thing. If any of the above scenarios hold there is plenty of room for pps appreciation just on the fundamentals, which is why most folks bought into AAGH in the first place.
JMO
