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Re: SantaCruz post# 153196

Saturday, 09/20/2003 5:16:52 PM

Saturday, September 20, 2003 5:16:52 PM

Post# of 704019
That is purely a guess, I think that after getting within a stone throw, from 1940, possibly, early in the week), we will start down, but as I said, that is just a guess. One of the "flashing" indicators is the divergence between BPCOMPQ and BPNDX, the latter, despite printing a new recovery high in the index failed to make a new high. The Naz BP did make a new high, indicating a number of lagging issues playing "catch up". However, the Naz is a capitalization weighed index, in which the NDX is of "major import". If the BPNDX is lagging because fewer big cap issues have "positive P&F" despite the new high print, it is possible that a weakening trend may be in progress. I know it is a weak argument and the topping process may take much longer and if we get a top, that top might be quite temporary (namely, if we do not get expansion of new lows on the next retreat, it is probably a temp top), but that is what I have right now. Strangely enough, while I don't have (yet) a major "run for the hill" signal, the medium term oscillators are pointing to a possible 300 Naz points or so retreat from whatever high we print this week (please see earlier comments on that this week with the caveats under which such a deep retrench might develop).

AZH

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