The way I see it, the next recession, will be a consumer led recession, it will be deeper than the last one and at its end, a lot of balance sheet repair for both consumers and corporations will have taken place. Similarly, a lot of the over capacity will also be taken out (and I actually think that sometime in the next ten years, China will have a major economic catastrophe due to extreme reliance on export and not enough development of their own internal consumer market). Once this adjustment is complete, the emergence of a completely new technology, will IMTO, cause once more an accelerated rate of growth as old infrastructure and old technologies are replaced with new one, and the reliquified consumer, gradually, but persistently starts its spending cycle (hopefully, not just the US and developed countries consumers, but consumers in what are now less developed countries such as Russia, the former east block, the Asian tigers and China. Japan , I believe will have very little participation in that next boom (proportionately), both because of their xenophobic tendencies, still, after almost 20 years, a bad banking system, very negative population trends and the loss of their export prowess to other Asian countries.
