Jim, I have something similar, but it is all contained within a band roughly between 1842 and 1967 for the next six weeks or so. There are some modifying forks to that basic model . For instance, we could have marginal new highs above 1967, if we build steam early in the week and new highs climb back above the 250/300 zone early in the week without the equity P/C ratio going sharply under .45. If that does not happen and the advance is stopped under 1915, the lower range can be extended to the 1811 area. Right now, I have the cyclical bull continuing , as long as 1757 is not breached till the end of the year, with a run above 2000 early in 2004 as the highest probability. What worries me, very short term, is that Friday we did not go above 1865, that was a latent support (which failed) and now could develop into a latent resistance, we'll see Monday morning how it is handled.... Toward the end of next week, my target EOD cash will probably rise from the current 30% to 40% to reflect a period of "meandering" till mid to late December. When the Naz is at the top of the range cash will probably rise to the 40%/45% and when at the bottom of the range to the 25%/30%.
As for gold, since we reached above $393 Friday, and that is the top of the range, I got out of gold, I'll reestablish the position if we get back to the $365/$375 area.
