LG, yes, you are absolutely right, there is an outside chance that if the 1842/50 area is breached, a cascade down could ensue. I am watching the Q, two of them are already in definitive downtrend (IACI and JCOM), QLGC and BRCM could go down trend is they breach $51 and $33 respectively (events that could occur if we go sub 1900 to 1850), and only MERQ is consolidating for possibly another surge to a new high. But, until the "fat lady sings" (namely a breach on a closing basis of 1842), I got to stay with the current model, a retrench continuing here till sometime before Christmas, and then a strong early January. The recent top near 2000 on the Naz was not associated with major extreme readings in the internals, thus the likelihood of a major catastrophe occurring here is less than 20%. For now, therefore, I am staying with my medium term horns well fastened on and only expect an excursion under 1900 which should not last too long, nor breach the 1842/50 area. Other "warning signs" are the behavior of many semis (SNDK and LEXR which led, CCMP which is quite negative etc.).
