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Re: Bullwinkle post# 193190

Wednesday, 01/14/2004 10:26:21 PM

Wednesday, January 14, 2004 10:26:21 PM

Post# of 704019
Maybe "they" are trying to condition us to "buy the dips"...Right here, I have no indication that the sell signal I had almost a week ago is negated, what I am not sure of is that a delayed decline of the early January decline the model had or are we already in the vicinity of the target for the main decline through Feb and early March. If it is the latter and let say 2114 was the top, then we may go directly into the three steps decline leading to sub 1900. I expect these to be first a mild first step down to around 2022 or so, a bounce followed by another step down to the 1955/75 range and then in late February early march a sharp step down to 1842/64 area (that step itself could be a 150/180 or so Naz points, quite nasty, from just above 2000 or so. f we have the delayed minor early January scenario still operative, this thing should be contained above 1975. I don't know which one of the two (if any, as you say, buying the dips so far has been the norm) is operative, I need few more days to decide. My bet right now is that it will be the coalescence model, so fasten your seat belts.

AZH

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