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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: chainik post# 198503

Wednesday, 01/28/2004 5:33:49 PM

Wednesday, January 28, 2004 5:33:49 PM

Post# of 704019
The Christmas model put a top of between 2093 and 2163 on the Naz, it had a minor retrench early in January we got it only in the Dow (yup, a turnips misstep on the Naz, and even the decline was much milde than the turnips expected), since then the model declared the coalescence model to be effective with the top as before, no more that 2163 and 10730 for the Dow, and before the end of January. So far it is not too shabby, we missed the top Dow by 30 or so and the Naz by some 10 points. On January 8th, when the Naz hit 2100, I went on the defensive and donned my bear suit, not wanting to be heavily exposed for those last 50 points or so, if they came (they did). I don't think that is underestimating by much the events as they actually unfolded... Earlier the model gave a big all clear at 1842 in mid October (before we reached that level, the thread had heavy discussions on that at the time, with some, rightfully, stating that they give no significance to the "sanctity" ot 1842 (vbg), somebody even went heavy bearish at 1865, but no one reproaches his model) and a sell at 2100 here two weeks back. not too shabby, IMTO.

By the way, we had a visit in post #msg-2011015 (12/28/03) from an individual disparaging some posters and promising the Dow will be under 10,000 by January 16, and if not, he volunteered to eat crow publicly on this thread. I have not seen such mae culpa, yet (g).

And while I was typing this, my QLTI went at $21 flat as "promised". Peeved at myself on insisting for a full bucker discount at least($17.75) for seconds on QLTI, missed by $.02 (g).


AZH

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