I am saying that the consumer was relied on to stimulate the economy, he may become "tapped out" (particularly if job growth does not accelerate), the last tax cut (lowering of top bracket and dividend exclusion) did very little to ameliorate that situation, it is directed at "increasing investment", but that is futile when excess capacity abound (thus the secular bear market thesis). If the extreme priming (combined fiscal and monetary stimulus) manages to finally result in job growth, a more normal cycle of a longer economic expansion (self sustaining) may result. The likelihood of such an event is low, IMTO and thus I expect another recession within 12 to 24 months. If however, the tax cut was more along the lines I proposed (see msg-2591537), it would have resulted in healthier aggregate demand and thus the possibility of a self sustained recovery lasting longer and eating in the excess capacity.
