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Re: Math Junkie post# 234909

Thursday, 04/22/2004 8:38:41 PM

Thursday, April 22, 2004 8:38:41 PM

Post# of 704019
I put out a long term map on 12/25, on 4/1 I just changed some of the timing. People keep asking every day is it still that or this, everyday there are local temporal influences that " may" accelerate or decelerate the "program" then in motion, the daily comments you cite are designed to respond to these daily question. I'll ask Wecus t change the map when I see a substantial change from the "forecast" (as I asked him on 4/1, though the changes were only timing changes, not the structure of the move as I see it). You should understand that these maps are not designed for exact timing of entries or exit. Near where the map suggest there might be a top cash in increased and near where the map suggest there might be a bottom cash is deployed, and that is a gradual process, and IMTO, it should be used that way. For instance, I never removed my horns around 4/13, though I suggested a solid 80, maybe 90 Naz points decline (we had 100), but I reduced exposure markedly. I even reduced exposure today going from fully loaded a number of times, to around 20% on the close (and then deployed back in AH some 5/6% on "special bargains", that is what cash us raised for, to be able to exploit "special bargains").

Last, I would want everyone to be extremely suspicious of the turnips in the near future since they had an extraordinary run since mid June of last year with only few minor whipsaw (I know, MT will bring the take out of 1955, which was not expected (g), but acted on at once), and they also had a very good run during the first 3.5 months last year. It is time for them to have a major mishap. They use statistical tool, and as such "statistics" is going to catch up with their forecast. I'll continue and follow the directive dictated by the turnips, until, they prove wrong, then stop losses, or lost opportunities will come into play. I think it is a very conservative and capital preserving approach to follow.

AZH

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