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Post# of 25232
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Sam "Raven"

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Sam "Raven"

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Re: None

Monday, 04/08/2002 2:03:03 AM

Monday, April 08, 2002 2:03:03 AM

Post# of 25232
I hate to see a swing trading thread go unattended so I thought I'd post the risk/reward table for the picks we are watching tomorrow.

Symbol/ Top of buy/ Stop/ Target/ Loss/ Reward/

BMS $54.67 $53.11 $56.79 ($1.56) $2.12
ESST $20.05 $18.78 $24.72 ($1.27) $4.67
MNC $24.46 $23.21 $29.88 ($1.25) $5.42
TIF $35.45 $34.06 $38.17 ($1.39) $2.72
TTWO $19.96 $18.84 $22.90 ($1.12) $2.94


The total portfolio size equals $154.59, Total Pts. at risk equals ($6.59), and the Total points potential is $17.87

The average loss equals ($1.32) and the average gain equals $3.57

Probability Table

0% success rate (all hit stops) = Loss of 6.59 points or 4.26% of investment
20% success rate (one stock hits target the rest stop) = Loss of 1.95 points or 1.26% of investment
40% success rate (two hit target) = Gain of 3.19 points or 2.1% on investment
60% success rate (three hit target) = Gain of 8.07 points or 5.5% on investment
80% success rate (four hit target) = Gain of 12.96 points or 8.4% on investment
100% success rate (all hit target) = Gain of 17.87 points or 11.5% on investment

Hitting 100%, or even 80% is unreasonable, but odds favor 40 or 60% and just 40% yields a gain of 2.1% which isn't bad over a couple weeks period. The assumption being that we are not going to have a sharp correction during that period.

I'll keep track of how this works out.

Sam




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