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Re: ItsAllCyclical post# 291217

Thursday, 09/02/2004 9:25:18 PM

Thursday, September 02, 2004 9:25:18 PM

Post# of 704019
I am still at just above 20% (23% actually) cash, even with the AH addition of INTC, if we do get a run here (which I still expect since my "top window" does not start till the 7th), I will be selling into such strength to raise cash, hope to be at around 50% plus if and when we get to the 1920/50 area, since I would not be surprised to see a low in October well under 1850, maybe even a test and mild breach of the 1750 area. Between here and that mid 1900 tops, I expect the low of this week (1820) to hold. Tomorrow we should have three elements fighting for dominance, the INTC news (will cost us a solid 10 to 15 Naz point as early on), the job number, which if above 200 K should compensate some for the INTC impact, and late in the day seasonal strength (last day before Labor day is statistically strong). No idea how all these will end up. If we get a good swoon down, I may deploy some cash for no longer than about a week or so...

AZH

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