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KeithDust2000

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KeithDust2000

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Thursday, 09/09/2004 6:29:39 PM

Thursday, September 09, 2004 6:29:39 PM

NOR flash shortages!

Flash forecast cut amid NAND glut

Mark LaPedus
09/09/2004 2:40 PM EST

URL: http://www.siliconstrategies.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=47101915

SAN JOSE, Calif. — What a difference a year makes. Not long ago, the flash-memory market was soaring and vendors could not keep up with demand, especially for NAND-based products.

The business now appears to be cooling down, as Semico Research Corp. on Thursday (Sept. 9) lowered its forecast for the industry in 2004, with flat growth seen for 2005. And now, there are shortages of NOR products and a glut of NAND chips in the marketplace, according to an analyst from Semico at the research firm's conference here.

In 2003, the worldwide flash market hit $11.7 billion in terms of sales. Jim Handy, an analyst with Semico of Phoenix, reduced his forecast for the overall market to $17.6 billion in terms of sales in 2004, down from $17.7 billion in the original prediction.

The market is projected to be flat in 2005, as the business is expected to reach $17.8 billion next year, Handy said. And surprisingly, the NAND-based market is projected to decline from $6.4 billion in 2004, to $4.4 billion in 2005, he said.

In contrast, the NOR-based market is projected to grow from $11.3 billion in 2004, to $13.4 billion in 2005, he said.

And the picture is completely different for NOR and NAND. "NOR is in an undersupply mode right now and NAND is in oversupply," he said. "NAND bit growth has slowed. NAND prices have fallen off the cliff."

Keith