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S&P 500
5,214.08
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US TECH 100
17,655.56
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0.30%
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39,387.76
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Post# of 148479
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Justa Werkenstiff

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Justa Werkenstiff

Re: Justa Werkenstiff post# 36809

Friday, 11/19/2004 7:00:19 AM

Friday, November 19, 2004 7:00:19 AM

Post# of 148479
Market: There have been five occassions this year where the Nasdaq 100 closed higher by 0.5% or more while the breadth of the broader Nasdaq market closed at -200 or lower. A higher close with this kind of breadth suggests buyer exhaustion:

The dates of interest are are 9/14/04, 7/22/04, 7/7/04 and 4/23/04. Yesterday we had another one of those days. In three out of the four cases, the day this occurred marked a top to the exact day. The 4/23 example had a 2 point higher high the following day. In all cases, this lead to a corrective period. In all cases, the NDX was down the following day by an average of 22.50 NDX points. None of the prior dates occurred during opex.

There was one exception was March 23 2004 when the index just rallied higher. The distinction there is that we were coming off the lows and the kind of extremes I have been talking about did not exist. In fact. I had buy signals that day on the NDX.




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