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Re: Culmus post# 325009

Saturday, 11/20/2004 12:56:04 PM

Saturday, November 20, 2004 12:56:04 PM

Post# of 704019
I don't really know. Typically, the string of EPC we got was not extremely negative (If memory serves, prior to my major bear call in January we even hit under $.4 and had a string of under .5), external parameters could come into play such as crude resuming a down trend, the dollar mounting a counter trend rally etc. which could abort, short term, a decline. Mind you, Jim's Momentum indicators are still pointing to a high Wednesday and from there a relatively strong decline, and I do not disagree with that. Which ever is the case, many of the internals have not reached such extremes that a major bear stance should be taken (thus my "teddy bear" stance), I believe for such extremes to develop, we will need to take on the Naz the January highs, and then some, so I would not be surprised to see that move to at least 2275 in late January, in between, whether we stop at 2050 or at 1940/80, I have no idea. If Jim's model is right, then probably we first stop the current decline here monday without going under 2050, print a new high or get close to the 2130/50 area (a fast 3 days 80 to 100 Naz rush, by the way, I think that Jim's model can be off by a day or two, so it may include a spike into post Thanksgiving, but you'll have to ask him) and then engage into a decline till around Christmas to the 1940/1980 area. If Monday starts down and then reverse, then I would think that the latter scenario, including Jim's high on Wednesday could indeed be the one we follow.


AZH

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