Don't rush with shorts on the SMH, the current pricing already assumes a very bad 2005, worse than I think it will really be. The BTK on the other hand is putting in a triple top, and unless that triple top is taken out soon, it may get hit hard. The weak link, IMTO, will continue to be the pharmaceuticals, many are facing patent expiration and short term problems, including the fact that consumer spending on health care is already extremely heavy (in the 16 to 17% of toto), not much growth from such high levels to be expected. The traditional safety issue in a bear market will probably move to specialty or niche health care companies, like specialty drugs, smaller size companies, and specialty devices the like of GIVN, LCAV and ISRG.
