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Re: tantal post# 366163

Saturday, 03/05/2005 10:47:19 AM

Saturday, March 05, 2005 10:47:19 AM

Post# of 704019
If you want to nitpick, I believe a coma should have been inserted after the "now", as the imagery, quite simple, if necessary a new nassacre will be created and made available for fenestration as well, for now, I do not anticipate such a development until late April, providing, of course, that indicators and the economy continue in their "goldilock" state.

Late last year, I postulated that a consumer led recession could appear in the second half of the year (and thus a good 6 to 9 months before precipitate a least a minor bear market), that was predicated on tapped out consumers not being replaced by new consumers drawing paychecks at rates above the 150,000/200,000 per month (I may have used a higher figure then). I realize a lot of analysts are complaining that jobs are being added to services only, and yes, longer term that might be a problem, but as far as consumption growth is concerned, the tax cut imposed by recent energy hikes, and the tapping of consumers due to the massive refinancing that has already occurred, is well compensated by the addition of new income that will be spent (if the current rate of employment growth continues, some 2.5 MM new "consumers" in a 12 months period). Add to that the fact that the "anticipated" excesses in sentiment indicators, expected for January, did not materialize, and you will see, why, for now, defenestration is required.


AZH

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