If we get excess optimism on the next bounce which you expect as well, then, it is quite possible that the subsequent retrench would be of the type you expect. So far we have not had much excess optimism when we got close to 2100 and 11000 respectively (Naz, Dow), so maybe that major downturn is not yet in the cards. With crude approaching $60, you would have thought the market had all the excuses it needs.
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