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S&P 500
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1.26%
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US TECH 100
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2.17%
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Dow Jones
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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: ogm post# 371759

Sunday, 03/20/2005 12:16:12 PM

Sunday, March 20, 2005 12:16:12 PM

Post# of 704019
I agree that the market is changing and thus indicators must be adjusted. However, the basic contrarian philosophy should still be valid, and the fact that we have not reached extreme in sentiment indicators, might simply mean that the market is simply absorbing, so far not too badly, the advance late last year. From an economic point of view, I still do not see the clouds of a consumer led recession appearing on the horizon. Note the relatively benign employment figures. Not too shabby, and counteracting the effect of "tapping out" of some of the in the consumer pale. Actually, the two months of semiequip BTB reading at .78, might indicate a loca bottom in that indicator (much higher than extremes reached in the last few years, but many indicators fail to reach such extremes recently). That might be an indication that the semi sector is finished with its own minibear and could have a run till the middle of May, maybe even into July. Look how SNDK is refusing to let me back in under $27 (g), during this retrench.

AZH

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