Most probably yes, it does not even have to go all the way down to the 1220 to correct the excess optimism, I would say a retrenchment to under 1300 (1263?) would be sufficient, though, I need to see the "colors" of such a retrenchment. If such a retrenchment were to occur before the end of the year, then the cyclical bull scenario for next year can come back into play with a target top of 1940. I have no idea which of the two scenarios will play out, right now, I fear the market is shooting its wad, and the less optimist scenario will play out (namely a retreat held at around 1378, then a year end rally taking out the 1515 after one or two attempts, followed by a spike into the main line of resistance at 1619 as the top for next year, early in the year, and a decline to the 950 or so area within 12 months, after that top.)
Zeev
