Friday, April 15, 2005 4:23:34 AM
S&P Cycle Chart with Fibonacci Retracement
I think that Lindsay chart’s haunting me… :) It really made me look at the market from a different angle. It made me look at the market as still quite bullish. This contradicts my other technical analysis.
This is, by all means, a technical assumption. It’s just intriguing to see how this would play out. If S&P drops below 1163 by a good margin today, then there may not be anything. But, as it is presented, it’s simply fascinating.
I’ll put up the charts again to have a good glimpse of the thought process but in reverse order. The first chart below is my latest. The S&P has been in the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement area since it crossed above the 50% Neutral Zone (yellow highlight) in November. Theoretically, unless it moves back down across the Neutral Zone to the 61.8% retracement area, the Uptrend is still considered intact. If this is accurate, then all the News Alerts and market warnings that I’ve been getting from the newsletter subscriptions and the WSJ were really unnecessary. At least not until we’re in the 50% zone anyway.
One more observation is that this 50% Neutral Zone has not been entered, not even once, in 12 months. All the support and resistance points at 1144 and 1163 have held up quite well so far. In fact, the 1142-1144 support didn't even get tested at all.
***********************************************
And so, this support line actually holds the key to the validity of many technical assumptions.
************************************************
And, if the support holds, then the uptrend should be considered still in place. If it didn’t break after 3 relentless assaults from the bear, then this 1163 support line should be considered well seasoned. This would then give a probability or an implication of the continuation of the uptrend as per this Lindsay model chart.
I couldn’t even believe what I’ve just written. We’ll see. Whatever happens wouldn’t change the intrigue and the fascination of this search. I could be just making a fool of myself, but it's well worth the price.
I think that Lindsay chart’s haunting me… :) It really made me look at the market from a different angle. It made me look at the market as still quite bullish. This contradicts my other technical analysis.
This is, by all means, a technical assumption. It’s just intriguing to see how this would play out. If S&P drops below 1163 by a good margin today, then there may not be anything. But, as it is presented, it’s simply fascinating.
I’ll put up the charts again to have a good glimpse of the thought process but in reverse order. The first chart below is my latest. The S&P has been in the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement area since it crossed above the 50% Neutral Zone (yellow highlight) in November. Theoretically, unless it moves back down across the Neutral Zone to the 61.8% retracement area, the Uptrend is still considered intact. If this is accurate, then all the News Alerts and market warnings that I’ve been getting from the newsletter subscriptions and the WSJ were really unnecessary. At least not until we’re in the 50% zone anyway.
One more observation is that this 50% Neutral Zone has not been entered, not even once, in 12 months. All the support and resistance points at 1144 and 1163 have held up quite well so far. In fact, the 1142-1144 support didn't even get tested at all.
***********************************************
And so, this support line actually holds the key to the validity of many technical assumptions.
************************************************
And, if the support holds, then the uptrend should be considered still in place. If it didn’t break after 3 relentless assaults from the bear, then this 1163 support line should be considered well seasoned. This would then give a probability or an implication of the continuation of the uptrend as per this Lindsay model chart.
I couldn’t even believe what I’ve just written. We’ll see. Whatever happens wouldn’t change the intrigue and the fascination of this search. I could be just making a fool of myself, but it's well worth the price.
David
#board-3693
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