I think the situation here is quite different. First, until January 27th, nothing happens. Second, then , there were serious worries about Saddam continuing into Saudi Arabia, and Saddam, of course was already in Kuwait. Last, this time, we are not standing "front to front" with thousands of tanks, we are going to be ambushed in cities, we will have CNN giving us daily reports of large civilian casualties, and there will be uncertainty as to the length of the engagement (post military victory), so the type of bounce we had then may not happen. Last, the economic situation was somewhat different, we were coming out of a mild (consumer led) recession, now we are coming out of a mild business led recession, but the market may see on the horizon (within a year or two?) a sharper consumer led recession. Factors such as the proposed stimulus package (and the hype prior to the President's address) as well as seasonal liquidity factors may cause a pre invasion run, and a post invasion (coinciding with the knowledge of what the Pres. proposes) relapse.
Zeev
