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US TECH 100
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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: S Chun-Li post# 61313

Saturday, 01/04/2003 10:35:29 AM

Saturday, January 04, 2003 10:35:29 AM

Post# of 704019
You used to do a running analysis of the Naz 100 earnings and PE, do you still do it? I just finished last week that analysis for the Dow, and got strange results (assuming the Dow "divisor" at 6.856). Because the Dow is price weighed, rather than Cap weighed (like the Naz and the Naz 100) you sum up the earnings and multiply by the divisor, I came up with this fiscal years' earning of $504, or a 17 PE (as of the Friday close), I am quite sure this is much lower than the Naz 100. Why would Shaeffer think that a bunch of small cap stocks with minimal capitalization, even if they double, (those that might) will influence th comp, is beyond me.

My guess is that in a risk averse environment, big money will gravitate to lesser risk companies like the Dow stocks, not to high risk companies that populate the Naz. Where Shaffer is right, is in a late stage "nassacre" type situation, when people need to raise cash rapidly, then they throw the "baby with the wash water". Under such circumstances, even counter trend stocks such as the golds suffer (see what happened in the late stage of the last nassacre, gold stock got hit hard). I doubt that after such a possible move the Naz stocks will be found (relatively) higher than the Dow stocks.

Last July, I had a bet with Xbrit, whether INTC will reach $22 before it reaches $12 (I won that bet, but never got paid <g>, #msg-415418), but if that bet was offered now, I am not sure I would take it.... it is a real toss up.

Zeev

AZH

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