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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: mish post# 63924

Sunday, 01/12/2003 1:23:32 PM

Sunday, January 12, 2003 1:23:32 PM

Post# of 704019
HFTH still on. Reasons, mostly sentiment indicators reaching extremes when indices were closing on critical pivot points (NAZ 1440/50, Dow 8800/9000 and SPX 940/60). Such a congruence brings about very high risks in the market IMTO. Originally, I was hoping such high extreme in sentiments indicator would be generated by a breach of the early December highs, and thus had as an original target some excursion above those highs (my late November thinking for instance #msg-598082). Then on Christmas, due to the poor showing in December that far, I lowered the January top target to the 1537- 1550 area (see #msg-638162 and #msg-647289). However, by late Monday, sentiment indicators were getting extreme just as we approached the 1440 or so area (we actually were at 1424, but not being in the next morning, I allowed for another 20 Naz points #msg-657325 and made the call late Monday, it would had been generated probably Tuesday morning anyhow) and the Dow being within 200 points of its major resistance. Sure, that call may be a little premature and sentiment indicators could reach even greater extremes and we may still reach the just above 1500 area on the naz and around 9000 on the Dow, but I doubt we go much further. Thus the HFTH is still on as reiterated late last week.

Zeev

AZH

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