InCapta Inc (INCT): GZFX vs. SIRI === Got GZFX! SIRI O/S...

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coinstarz

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Tuesday, 11/22/2005 10:09:20 AM

Tuesday, November 22, 2005 10:09:20 AM

GZFX vs. SIRI === Got GZFX!

SIRI O/S = 1.33 B; GZFX O/S = 1.12 B

SIRI lost money EPS = -0.62; GZFX lost money EPS = -0.03

SIRI subs = 2.173 M and slow down

GZFX subs = 10,000 and growing fast at rate of 500%.

SIRI PPS = $7.10/sh; GZFX PPS = $0.0183/sh

SIRI Cap = $9.5 B; GZFX cap = $20.3 M

Let's assume GZFX has market cap $200M or 2% of SIRI cap.

Then GZFX PPS = $0.18

SIRI…

SIRI has subs of 2,173,920 according to SEC filing. With $9.50 B capital, each sub is worth about $4,370 ($9.50B/2.173M). Each SIRI sub pays $11+/- monthly fee that is less than (or close to) GZFX sub fee (16.99).

GZFX...

Using $4,370 for each GZ sub, as of today, with 10,000 subs (not incl CC subs), GZFX cap should be around 10,000 x $4,370 = $43.7 Million. Therefore, GZFX pps = 43.7M / 1.12 B sh = $0.0390/sh. Now taking into account of CC in-store promotion, let's use 200 subs generated by each CC store, total subs by CC could be 600 x 200 = 120,000 subs. Then GZFX capital should be around 120,000 x 4,370 = $524.4 M, therefore, GZFX pps = $524.2M/1.12 B sh = $0.4682/sh

OK, now let’s use Price/Sale ratio

SIRI P/S = 51.71 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SIRI)

GZFX P/S = 20.53 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GZFX.OB)

Use SIRI P/S of 51.71 to calculate GZFX PPS

GZFX PPS = 0.0461 (51.71/20.53 x 0.0183)

The current PPS should be around $0.04/sh and next 30-90 days price should be around $0.40/sh, after that all depends on GZ subs, If GZFX subs can reach 1 Million, we know PPS should be at least 1/2 of SIRI or $3.50/sh.

Peace!

C-Starz