mvp-notes thread, options update
I found some old notes I'd stored on an mvp original buy executed eod 5/13/04 (v21.x timing)
mdy price eod 5/13/04 104.54 and I had data on a Jan.05 call strike price $110
Day of signal highest option price was $4.10, the program sold at mdy-108 which comes out to an option price selling at least $5.30. I have taken a high entry and low sell to illustrate this as pessimistically as possible.
Looks like a 29% move in the option versus a 4% move in mdy. There were times during the trade when it was almost 60% gain.
The option I sold 2 weeks ago was 45% gain real world, and I've tracked it as high as 77% since.
My basic premise is these are worth playing ONLY on original mvp buy signals, which so far over 9.6 years, have never failed to close at a profit, if held until next sell. The key is to go at least 3-4 months out, to give the signal time to play out. IF you play them too close in time, the signal could be right but you could be defeated by time premium decay.
You CAN time the market!
But only after you trash the big 3 myths.
Myth 1 - its possible to get every point of every move
...Myth 2 - you'll never have a drawdown
......Myth 3 - you'll never have a loss
