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Post# of 704019
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Zeev Hed

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Zeev Hed

Re: bfenton post# 448757

Sunday, 01/08/2006 4:54:35 PM

Sunday, January 08, 2006 4:54:35 PM

Post# of 704019
So now I have to request a leave of absence when I go out frolicking and taking a well deserved break? (g).

I am not going to give a "detailed" map for next year, however. Too many imponderable from the pair of Iran/Iraq to Sharon unexpected stroke and even the conflict instigated by Putin in Ukraine, using natural gas supply as a political weapon (what else is new, he learned a page from Saud).

My target above 2300 (see (#msg-8542383, and reiteration early in December in #msg-8713378) of 2320/40, is getting very close. During December we got a string of the ISEE going above 200, but the highest reading we got was 247, just short of the classic 250 required for an outright sell signal (together with other parameters), that immediately was followed by a relatively minor retrench which generated a lot of fear, including a VTO buy signal, bullish intermediate term. My general expectation is that the market may turn and retest the 2180/2200 area, after attempting a run here to the target of 2320/40. I expect February to be difficult with that retrench to the 2200 area, but if 2180 holds, by mid to late March we should resume our advance.

The Dow is still a good 100 points from where I expected it to be by now...the "generals" (including INTC and MSFT) are not leading this run.

In general, I cannot be too bearish here (except that spill I expect within two weeks, earlier if next week is a major run).

Jim Had a turn late last week, and he may still be right on that one. I probably should be ready to recall my bear suit, but I'll wait till I see the "white in the MM's eyes".


By the way, if 2180 does not hold on the retrench, a good chance that before the middle of the year we see a 350/400 Naz points Nassacre from the highs set this month.

AZH

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