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Post# of 54376
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KauaiPI

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KauaiPI

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Re: streetshooter post# 3326

Thursday, 04/17/2003 10:59:31 PM

Thursday, April 17, 2003 10:59:31 PM

Post# of 54376
shooter~DHB...

The recent Pr,s are driving this stock. But i have reservations about the FA on this one, mainly the decreasing gross margins and the jump in A/R from last Q. Plus the gross net income didnt look really good.

The latest PR looks very promising, and a TA play might be in order.But i have concerns with costs here. Plus, what happens when US says war is over in Iraq?Which can be anytime.I might wait for that to happen.

There seems to be alot of good going on with this company,
right sector at the right time.But i want to know when the 85 mil and 5 mil from previou PR will be booked and recongized as revenue.

I decided to re-visit this one now as they have earnings coming out 4-24-03 and the way it has been trading I was trying to decide next entry point (It was stopped out for me @ $3.20 on 4-14-03) and so far it has continued to go up from there ... currently trading at today's close of $3.36 --the last two days a closing hi of 3.47 and a lo of 3.22

Your points are valid although with the homeland security being funded and the on going needs to staff and supply the local and state police forces (in this on going days of terrorist threats), unlike you I don't think the IRAQ situation will be a factor. They did receive the $85M order from the armed forces in the U.S. and their is a rUmOr that there will be European orders on the way from Britain, France and Germany.

Your points about their receivables IS valid (see below) as well as other KEY ratios... but what just SOURED me on taking a quick position is the ONE analyst covering them has decreased his estimates ... and that was following the company PR that indicated they *should* beat first Q estimates so I am now assuming, in light of this decreased estimate, that something has changed and NOT for the best lol

Q/E 3-31-03 looks to come in @$.06 from previous estimate of $.08 (see below)

The PE suggests to me it may be undervalued (before the above decrease in est.) and on industry comparisons (below) they don't seem to be in as good a favor as others in their in the industry based on how the street is pricing them (IMO)

Kinda the Rodney Dangerfield of the industry... The current and Quick ratios are great! as is their investment returns suggesting management is effective! I don't care for their Price-to-cash flow (see below)

All in all I STILL like them very much. Not all is bad and the current trades suggest to me that the investors are willing to be in this one (now) but they have been fickle before and I am sure will be again.

Bottom line: I will purchase it back on an irrational pull back and should it continue as it has been I will stay on the fence watching along with others. Until the analyst in question is proven wrong, I think it will continue to be trending North... should that analyst be correct then that pull back should be an buying opportunity IMO. What concerns me is; WHAT DOES HE KNOW that we don't

consequently, I have to be happy with my $ .70 profit per share (net of commissions) over the time it took to reap the rewards (3 weeks)

My thanks for making me take this second look as I was trying to, as I think I said above, take a re-entry point at possibly an even higher share price going into that earning report that I HAD expected would be good but now have reason to be suspect of.

Thanks again
best!

kp
Re: DHB...

Consensus EPS Trend Qtr(3/03) Qtr(6/03) FY(12/03) FY(12/04)
Current Estimate 0.06 0.07 0.28 NA
7 Days Ago 0.08 0.12 0.40 NA
30 Days Ago 0.08 0.12 0.40 NA
60 Days Ago 0.08 0.12 0.40 NA
90 Days Ago NA NA NA NA

Zacks Industry: AEROSPACE/DEFE
------------
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Page=EarningsEstimates&Symbol=DH...

Earnings Estimates Qtr(3/03) Qtr(6/03) FY(12/03) FY(12/04)
Average Estimate 0.06 0.07 0.28 NA
Number of Analysts 1 1 1 NA
High Estimate 0.06 0.07 0.28 NA
Low Estimate 0.06 0.07 0.28 NA
Year Ago EPS NA 0.11 0.30 0.28
Growth Rate NA -36.36% -6.67% NA

Zacks Industry: AEROSPACE/DEFE

of course, they only have ONE analyst covering them!
--------------------------------------

Price/Volume alerts
-------------------------------------

04/14/03 Price up sharply on unusually high volume.

04/13/03 Price up sharply on unusually high volume.

04/13/03 Price down sharply on unusually high volume.

04/12/03 Price down sharply on unusually high volume.

04/10/03 Price up sharply on unusually high volume.

01/30/03 Relative price strength increasing.

----------------
Financial alerts
----------------

(1)04/14/03 Price-to-cash-flow ratio well below industry average.

03/31/03 DHB's P/E ratio well below industry average.

--------------------------------------
(1) Alert Message; Price-to-cash-flow ratio well below industry average.

Alert Description

This alert signals that a company's price-to-cash-flow ratio has fallen at least 25% below the average for its industry.

Some analysts consider cash flow as perhaps a company’s most important financial barometer, and the ratio of stock price to operating cash flow is favored by many over the price-earnings ratio as a measure of a company’s value. Operating cash flow -- which is comprised of net earnings minus preferred dividends plus depreciation -- is arguably the best measure of a business’s profits. A company can show positive net earnings and still not be able to pay its debts. It’s cash flow that pays the bills -- and underwrites dividend checks to stockholders.

Price-to-cash-flow ratios vary widely from industry to industry, with capital-intensive industries such as auto manufacturing or cable TV tending to have very low multiples, and less infrastructure-heavy industries, like software, sporting much higher ones. At this writing, the price-cash-flow ratio for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies is about 14. In other words, for every $1 that flows through those companies, their stock price is $14. But the average price-to-cash-flow ratio in the auto industry is 5, and in the software industry it’s 39.

Price-to-cash flow is particularly favored to value companies in the "hard asset" business -- gold, oil, and real-estate companies, for example.

Generally, the lower a company's price-to-cash-flow ratio and the bigger its discount from the industry average multiple, the more likely that the firm may be undervalued. But that doesn't mean you should race out and buy the stock. The firm may have earned its lower multiple by a track record of blunders. You may want to do further investigation:

-- Check out other measures of the company's value -- its price-to-earnings ratio, for example, or its price-to-sales ratio. How do those compare with other firms in its industry?

-- What is the company's growth rate, and how does that compare with the industry average? A popular benchmark is to compare the company's price-earnings (P/E) ratio with its forecast earnings growth rate for the next year. A company's stock may seem cheap at 10 times earnings, but if it is growing very slowly, if at all, it could be a white elephant.

-- Check out the company’s statement of cash flows. Has the trend been up or down recently?

-- Calculate the firm’s cash flow per share of stock. (Divide its annual free cash flow, from the cash flow statement, by the total number of common shares outstanding, from the balance sheet). This will help you understand how a potential acquirer might value the company. Firms with large cash flows are often attractive takeover targets, since part of the acquisition can be paid for with the acquired firm’s own cash.
------------------------------

Financial Condition Company Industry S&P 500

Debt/Equity Ratio 0.83 0.74 1.10
Current Ratio 7.8 1.5 1.5
Quick Ratio 3.0 1.1 1.0
Interest Coverage 8.5 -0.6 2.3
Leverage Ratio 2.1 3.0 6.3
Book Value/Share 0.77 5.29 10.36

Media General Industry: Security & Protection Services
Computed ratios are based on latest 12 months' results.
---------------------------------
Management Efficiency Company Industry S&P 500

Income/Employee 36,000 -2,000 11,000
Revenue/Employee 290,000 76,000 287,000

Receivable Turnover 7.6 6.1 5.7
Inventory Turnover 3.2 21.9 7.9
Asset Turnover 2.5 1.1 0.3
---------------------------------
Investment Returns % Company Industry S&P 500
Return On Equity 51.1 NA 7.6
Return On Assets 24.5 -3.6 1.2
Return On Capital 28.0 -6.1 3.6
Return On Equity (5-Year Avg.) NA NA 12.1
Return On Assets (5-Year Avg.) NA -0.8 2.0
Return On Capital (5-Year Avg.) NA 0.1 5.8
---------------------------------

"When you look at things differently,

things look different"
--Wayne Dyer--


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