Chart of Gold and Gold Miners VGPMCX vs POG and S&P500 (SPY)

VGPMCX: Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining Fund vs POG (Price of Gold) and S&P500 (SPY with dividends reinvested)


Gold and Gold Miners (VGPMX) vs S&P500. ETFs GLD & SPY and VGPMX are shown in the graphs with dividends reinvested.

Two more charts at Gold and Gold Miners vs Time and S&P500

New consumer sentiment numbers come out tomorrow.

With gasoline and oil prices 30% off peaks



More charts and story: http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/2008/09/chart-of-us-dollar-oil-prices-and-s.html

Consumer sentiment should soar


Soaring consumer sentiment from more money in our pockets not spent at the gas pumps could lite the candle under the markets!

NanoViricides Inc. Appoints Renowned Ophthalmologist Dr. Kazuo Tsubota to Scientific Advisory Board



BUSINESS WIRE
Posted: 2008-07-28 07:08:36

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)----NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), said that the internationally renowned Japanese ophthalmologist and corneal researcher, Kazuo Tsubota, MD, PhD, has agreed to join the Company's Scientific Advisory Board. Dr. Tsubota is currently Professor and Chairman of the Department of Ophthalmology at Keio University School of Medicine in Tokyo, Japan.

"I have already had licensing discussions with Japanese pharmaceutical companies regarding EkcCide(TM)," said Dr. Tsubota, adding, "There has been significant interest in Japan in the excellent animal study results from the Institute in New York."

"Dr. Tsubota will be helping us prepare the Company's nanoviricides drug candidates to enter the regulatory approval process in Japan. Initially, he will focus on viral eye diseases such as EKC and Herpes virus infection, among others," said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.

There are a number of different viruses that cause both viral conjunctivitis and keratitis (inflammation of the cornea). Adenovirus is a common cause of the very severe and potentially debilitating EKC. Herpes simplex virus (HSV-1) is another important infection of the eye. HSV-I infection is frequently recurrent and can lead to corneal scarring which may necessitate corneal transplantation.

The Company has previously reported that EkcCide was shown to cause rapid and clear clinical recovery of infected animal eyes in a study conducted by a renowned US ophthalmologic Institute. The infection in this study was caused by adenovirus 5, supplied by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Representative photographs are posted on the Company's website (www.nanoviricides.com).

EkcCide is the Company's nanoviricide(TM) drug candidate designed against the adenovirus that causes epidemic-kerato-conjunctivitis (EKC). The Company anticipates that the eye-drop formulation of this broad-spectrum nanoviricide drug candidate may have significant potential against other viral causes of EKC, herpes infection of the eye and the less severe viral conjunctivitis diseases as well. Common viral conjunctivitis is highly contagious and occurs primarily in schools and other crowded settings, as well as in immuno-compromised populations. While the Company currently has no approved product for the treatment of EKC and viral conjunctivitis, the treatment and prophylaxis market for EKC and other viral causes of conjunctivitis is expected to be in the order of several billion dollars annually.

About Kazuo Tsubota, MD, PhD:

An internationally recognized eye specialist, Professor Tsubota is Chairman of the Department of Ophthalmology at Keio University School of Medicine, his alma mater, where he received his MD in 1980. He was the first Japanese recipient of the American Academy of Ophthalmology Honor Award in 1994. He is Chief Surgeon at the Minamiaoyama Eye Clinic in Tokyo, Japan. He heads a large dry eye research group and also the largest refractive (eye) group in Japan, which has several clinics throughout the country. He is author of more than 350 scientific peer reviewed articles. He is editor of several specialty books in ophthalmology and is also a reviewer for many international journals in ophthalmology.

About NanoViricides:

NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide(TM) class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H5N1 bird flu, seasonal influenza, HIV, EKC, hepatitis C, rabies, dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.

Markets YTD and Since Peak

Index 	 Started Week 	Ended Week 	Change 	% Change  YTD 
 DJIA             11496.57    11370.69   125.88 	-1.1% 	-14.3% 
 Nasdaq            2282.78     2310.53    27.75 	 1.2% 	-12.9% 
 S&P 500           1260.68     1257.76    -2.92  -0.2%   -14.3% 
 Russell 2000       693.08      710.33    17.25   2.5%    -7.3% 

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.
.

Index 	 Started Week 	Ended Week 	Change 	% Change  YTD 
 DJIA             11496.57    11370.69   125.88 	-1.1% 	-14.3% 
 Nasdaq            2282.78     2310.53    27.75 	 1.2% 	-12.9% 
 S&P 500           1260.68     1257.76    -2.92  -0.2%   -14.3% 
 Russell 2000       693.08      710.33    17.25   2.5%    -7.3% 

I really don't know what "ends" a correction according to their definition. Is it a 20% rise from a low? I view the entire decline from 2000 to 2002 as one decline.

Stock Market Declines (DJIA) - Percent Change vs Number of Trading Days

Nice graph from "Chart of the Day"

Does anyone have a list of market declines in table format so I can make my own chart and regression?



Chart of the Day
The stock market dropped sharply today and investors remain concerned. For some perspective on the current correction, today's chart illustrates all major stock market corrections (15% loss or greater) of the last 108 years. Each dot represents a major correction as measured by the Dow. For example, the bear market that began in 1973 lasted 481 trading days and ended after the Dow declined 45%. There are a few items of interest... Since 1900, the Dow has undergone a major correction 26 times or one major correction every 4.2 years. Second, most major corrections since 1900 (64%) have resulted in a drop of less than 40% while lasting less than 400 trading days. Since 1950, the percentage of major market corrections that were less than 40% and 400 trading days increased to 84%. As it stands right now, the current stock market correction (October 2007 peak to most recent low) would measure slightly below average in both magnitude and duration.


Webmasters, journalists, and bloggers may post an occasional free Chart of the Day on their website as long as the chart is unedited and full credit is given with a live link to Chart of the Day at http://www.chartoftheday.com.



Kirk out
#board-1574

Put/Call Ratio

Can't save Beta Charts...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symbol=$CPC&period=DAILY&start=1992-01-01&end=2005-12-03&...

Put Call ratio signaling a bottom, soon....

I wrote a full article about this here with some more charts
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973/1570-1575#message_2

Bob Brinker Links

Bob Brinker Fan Club http://www.suite101.com/myhome.cfm/Brinker

Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/111452

Moneytalk Bob Brinker Summaries - Information: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/7819

Bob Brinker Testimonials: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/41868/21-30#message_1

Thanks for the clarification, Kirk.

"Kirk, it appears you're suggesting the SOX will visit the 250 area for a double bottom while the COMP will take quite a dump down the road."

Anything is possible but that is not what I am predicting.

Many are predicting a 2006 bottom similar to the 1998 and 2002 bottoms. This sort of bottom would fit the charts I've shown, but you can see from the charts the overall trend is still up hence they also support much higher levels. As such, I think we still rely on economic fundamentals. Those are now starting to bottom and turn up again, according to preliminary indicators I have. If it is apparent the economy is in good shape in a few months, then I suspect the market should already be confirming this now by ending the current correction as a higher low compared to the August 2004 lows.

This chart supports that idea:



That chart clearly shows we are now testing the breakout of the 2004 consolidation, from above.

I am not worried about a major new low unless the middle tine support of the blue pitchfork is FIRST broken. Until then, I think is would just be normal corrections to work off oversold conditions.

IF the economy is healthy, we could see some higher highs made where a "major 2006 low on the 4 year off presidential election year cycle" could be a "major low" that is significantly higher than today's levels... if the market rallies to the upper tine resistance levels. That is what I think is probably going to happen. It COULD happen off a double top at 1550.... as I think many would want to get out if the market returned to past highs so that would give a nice correction or even a cyclical bear.

I remember it took 7 years after the 1987 bear market before some of my tech stocks made new highs that they held for good. This would fit a 2006 bottom and a rally in 2007 or 2008 to new highs that hold.

Kirk, it appears you're suggesting the SOX will visit the 250 area for a double bottom while the COMP will take quite a dump down the road.

Hi Kirk
I like that middle chart, either bounce or breakdown. I would be leaning towards breakdown but will just be watching to see what happens.
Keep Rocking Kirk! :^)

hey Kirk .. speaking of stocks above 50d-sma, I don't know if you saw my latest study: #msg-5168223

I'll have an update to it by this weekend to show it currently.
I used up to the end of last year to show the relationship of stocks above their 10d-sma to the major indexes.

thanks for your wise posts !!

Percentage of stocks above 50 DMA vs SOX

$SOX ST and IT Trend Lines



The RSI looks very similar the 2002/2003 bottoming process.

CCI looks like a "reflection" of the Oct 2001 low

IGW finding support in two places on this chart

RSI is in the BUY zone



The S&P500 is at the support level of the fork for the break from its 2004 consolidation and the next support would be at the red tine, still within an overall bull pattern since the October 2000 bottom



The SOX has been a real under performer the last year.
I like how it has turned up on the RSI and CCI




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Fund Flows:

Weekly:











Monthly:










It simply amazes me how so many want to buy underwear and shoes when on sale but they want to pay top dollar to buy investment products.

You can get on the notification list here
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Hi Kirk
Is that public short interest or commercial? Here is an interesting look at the ES and the extreme divergence here between the commercial traders and the rest of the world. Looks like we are due for a pullback but I will just keep watching.
Keep Rocking Kirk! :^)

Sentiment: NYSE Short Interst Ratio vs DJIA

We've heard loads of noise about the public not being bearish enough...

I think this chart adds to my others that show this has not been the case:

URL http://www.marketthoughts.com/images/20041107/chart08.gif

Major Market 6 Month Charts and Industry Indices:














S&P500
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$spx,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b...

NASDAQ Composite
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$compq,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50...

AMEX Composite
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$xax,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b...

NYSE Composite
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$nya,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b...

DOW Industrials
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$indu,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!...

DOW Transports
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$tran,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!...

Looks Interesting Kirk
Have been following HUGO and some out over $6 are looking at this pullback to 5.50 as a buying opportunity. $5 would be the Major support to watch. Not sure what other plays are out there.
Good Luck and Keep Rocking Kirk! :^)

Copper just broke a double top
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>

>

and a "W" bottom...

I gotta say that Jimmy Rogers sure was right about what to buy for 2003 and 2004!

I've also heard something about Copper is a "roof" for the industrials.. so CU needs to go up for stocks to go up...
but that seems odd given copper declined between 1995 and 2000... irrational exuberance perhaps?

Looks Good
I hope they end up Rocking for you Kirk :^)

Nice gains in some of the I follow...

Some are penny stocks so beware!

Not a recommendation, see my newsletter for that, but I do CURRENTLY (could change any time) own some shares in ALL these.

LOL, that is a good one
I wonder how high the birth rates are 9 months later eh?
Enjoy the Day Kirk! :^)

Cool Kirk, Thanks
That is also very similar to the reversals we have been having these past years with Sept selling off and the reversal starting in early Oct, look at 01, 02 and slighly 03. It will really be interesting if the pattern repeats at the same time of the month also eh?
Keep Rocking Kirk! :^)

SOX charts
1998 low vs today:

1997-1998
>


Now
>

1998 chart with1 year added:
>

Suite101 Update:

I just realized-- these are almost all old messages. Is everyone waiting for the suite101 to be fixed?

Well, I'm enjoying the long holiday! I had my house full of family yesterday for a BBQ to celebrate the 4th.

Meanwhile, up in Canada, they are working on the problem. I suggeted the "Server Gods" are not happy and all staff should work naked.

Women Reportedly Plowing Naked in Nepal
Sun Jul 4, 7:04 PM ET
KATMANDU, Nepal - Female rice farmers are plowing their fields at night in the nude to please the rain god during a dry spell in southwestern Nepal, a news report said Sunday.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=516&e=3&u=/ap/nepal_naked_farmers

This is the status report from Vancouver:

Hi All;

Just to keep you advised of the situation regarding the site outage... We have had an IBM service technician in this evening to try to fix the server but his replacement of a dead Power Supply did not solve the problem. We now have to wait until tomorrow ( Monday)afternoon for him to return with additional parts to see if that will fix it. We will keep you posted as we progress. In the meantime, please keep your networking going to advise who you can of the current status.
Thank for understanding
Doug

Doug Loblaw,
President,
Marketeam Canada Ltd.
(dba Suite101.com)

I just realized-- these are almost all old messages. Is everyone waiting for the suite101 to be fixed?

I just realized-- these are almost all old messages. Is everyone waiting for the suite101 to be fixed?

Is CACS the new leader which means it is predicting what will happen to the others?

Election Year Returns 1897 to Present

Today's chart illustrates how the stock market has performed during the average election year. Since 1897, the first five months of the average election year has tended to be choppy. This year has not been an exception. That initial choppiness was then followed with an upward bias that has (on average) begun towards the end of May. It is now the end of May.

5 & 10 yr Bond vs. SPX 5/3/90-12/31/04

30 yr Bond vs SPX 5/3/90-12/31/04

AMAT & LRCX Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts

CACS, HPQ, IBM & INTC Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts

Drug Stocks

Drug Stocks

 
 Company Name       Symbol Mkt Cap (000's)  
 PFIZER INC           PFE  $265,195,420   
 JOHNSON & JOHNSON    JNJ  $150,247,396   
 GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC  GSK  $136,895,400   
 NOVARTIS AG ADS      NVS  $109,697,844   
 MERCK & CO           MRK  $100,347,380   
 ASTRAZENECA PLC      AZN  $81,576,800   
 ELI LILLY & COMPANY  LLY  $79,299,500   
 ABBOTT LABORATORIES  ABT  $73,227,468   
 WYETH                WYE  $55,775,988   
 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB BMY  $53,504,914  
 

AMAT, LRCX, UTEK, INTC & HPQ Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts












Free Issue of my Newsletter http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html

TA Forum to post questions http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641

CACS, HPQ, IBM & INTC Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts









Free Issue of my Newsletter http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html

TA Forum to post questions http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641

CACS, HPQ, IBM & INTC Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=CACS,uu[w,a]maclniay[d19930829,...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=CACS,uu[w,a]maclniay[d19930829,...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=IBM,uu[w,a]maclniay[d19930829,2...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=INTC,uu[w,a]maclniay[d19930829,...

Free Issue of my Newsletter http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html

TA Forum to post questions http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641

CACS, HPQ, IBM & INTCMonthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts









Free Issue of my Newsletter http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html

TA Forum to post questions http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641

AMAT & LRCX Monthly Charts

9.1 and 2.27 EMA are 200 and 50 days on monthly charts


http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1755974



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OEX :VIX vs SPX

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>
>

Interesting indicators... Seems to be saying we are well off a bottom but still not near a top.

HPQ: Possible iH&S Target of $30+ ?

HPQ looks like a double headed monster on this.

First Shoulder: October 2001 at $12/39
Head: July and Oct 2002 at $10.75
Second Shoulder: March 2002 at $14.81
-Good lower volume on this shoulder

Neckline goes through $23.91 Jan 02 and $21.20 Jan '03.

This neckline is now being breached so the target would be first a potential test of this neckline from above then a run towards about $11 above the neckline or low to mid $30's.

XAU/copper ratio vs The Long Bond







Author: mdorsey
Date: May 21, 2003 12:57 PM
Subject: Time for another look.
. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/12763/1502-1511#message_10

""If you had simply used the XAU/copper ratio and ignored everything else, you could have exited the bond market virtually at 'the peak' in 1989, 1996, and 1998 and caught everything but the last price run up in 1993. Since it has worked so nicely, we wanted to show where things stand at present.

The 'key' level for the ratio is 1.19:1. We have marked with vertical lines where the bond market was when the ratio pushed up through this point and also note that through much of 1997 and 1998 the ratio approached this level but...failed just below it. The bond price peak occurred at the exact point where the ratio finally managed to move marginally through 1.19:1.

What does this mean?

It suggests that bond are a reasonable long-term hold UNTIL the XAU moves almost 20% higher than the price of copper. With copper currently trading around 65 to 66 cents, this argues that bond prices would peak if the XAU were to drive up through 77 (compared to 55.50 at last Monday's close).""

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/...

Current XAU is 75.67. Copper is 77.15. So ratio is less than 1.00. Bonds are good to go for a while longer IMO.
=====================================================

My question is what level tells you to buy?

$USB - 30 Yr TBill Price & Yield: 1990-2004: Weekly





30 Year Yield


10 day intraday chart


Kirk's Market Thoughts: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973
Free Issue of me Newsletter: http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html

30-Year T-Bond Yield ($TYX)
1987 to 2004

Weekly:


Daily:

SPY & SPX 50/200 Day Simple Moving Average

The S&P 500 50 day moving average broke the 200 day moving average whereas its ETF, SPY, broke it a few days ago.




Interesting how the 50 SMA has not been above the 200 SMA since November 2000!