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DewDiligence

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DewDiligence

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Re: ThomasS post# 24470

Thursday, 02/23/2006 1:31:26 AM

Thursday, February 23, 2006 1:31:26 AM

Post# of 251790
Factual misstatements re Erbitux:

>ImClone (IMCL) has a nearly $3B market cap on the strength of a drug that sells about $400M a year now and is declining in sales because patients and doctors decided they hate the rash.<

Let’s take these misstatements one at a time:

1. The annualized Erbitux sales from the most recent quarter are almost $500M (not $400M) and that’s just the U.S. and a tiny contribution from Canada. Worldwide annualized Erbitux sales in the most recent quarter are more than $750M.

2. Erbitux sales are growing strongly in all geographies. 4Q05 U.S. sales grew by almost 40% vs 4Q04. An additional FDA approved indication—head and neck cancer—is expected in the next week, which ought to increase the growth rate to some degree.

3. I’ve not seen any evidence that doctors are withholding Erbitux treatment from a significant number of patients on account of the rash.

4. IMCL’s market cap is not just for Erbitux. The company has substantial net cash, manufacturing assets, and an oncology pipeline (#msg-9344961).

--
If the excerpt you cited above is really from Miller’s newsletter, I’m glad I’m not paying to subscribe.

p.s. Please see #msg-9380601.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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